2012 Season Review/Stats

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Shane Adams

As always, my year-end stats and overview...

CHASES: 10*
MILES: 5,359*
AVERAGE CHASE DISTANCE: 536 miles
TORNADO DAYS: 2+
TORNADOES: 9
SUCCESS RATIO: 1 in 5.0
STATES CHASED: KS,OK,TX+

*= career low
+= ties career low

2012 was a lackluster season at best, because the heart of it was largely lost to a death ridge April 15 - May 31, which is considered the "meat" of the S Plains season by many (including myself). I messed up most of the early offerings (March 18, April 3, April 9) which would've made it a pretty good year coupled with our lone big success on April 14. Career lows in number of chases, miles, and states chased were all reflections of a killer ridge that ate most of our season. Fortunately, April 14 was enough to salvage the year from being total crap, but it also left us very hot and bothered heading into what would eventually be a season-destroying pattern for us. I guess 'bittersweet' would best describe our 2012. Oh well, another year down and looking forward to 2013.
 
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CHASES: 11*
MILES: ?
AVERAGE CHASE DISTANCE: ?
TORNADO DAYS: 3
TORNADOES: 11
SUCCESS RATIO: 1 in 3.67
STATES CHASED: KS,OK,MO,AR,IL,IN,IA,KY*

*For the purpose of this topic, I'm only counting chase days and states where I went out for supercell/tornado potential. I have many other lightning/hail/non-severe chase days (no real tornado potential) that would skew the numbers if I counted those.

Like Shane mentioned on one of his recent blog posts, a good/bad year is often subjective. For me, that's relevant when I say I consider 2012 my best ever. Even though April 13 and 14 were one of very few good Plains days, I did possibly as best as you could do on those chases, with close-up intercepts and great video captured. To top it off, September 25 would have made my year by itself.

I had some disappointments, like missing several STL-region tornado days due to work. But overall, the year is one that will be hard to top for me personally.
 
My 2012 season was pretty much dead-on average considering my five-year chasing history:

Chases: 10
Tornadoes: 9
Tornado days: 4
Miles chased: ~3935
Cap busts: 0
States chased in: KS, OK, TX
Best day: April 14
Biggest regret: May 25

I definitely sensed it was a slow year, but I still managed to score tornadoes in spread out intervals, so I didn't have a super long tornado-less spree. I wish I could have May 25th back because I saw and liked the potential that day had several days in advance. My advisor decided to swap our usual Thursday meeting for Friday that week (Friday being the 25th), and despite my attempts to get out of the meeting, it didn't happen. Oh well. There will be other years.
 
I felt had a pretty decent season considering most everything I chased was low chance days. March 18th, April 9th, and May 19th were big days for me. I busted on the high risk day of April 14th, busted hard on April 12th in northern KS, and I missed May 25th all together having to work. The structure of the storms on April 9th in Woodward and May 29th were awesome and I came away with some of the best structure photos I've ever taken.

The way the year started out I thought late April and early May would go crazy, but it came to a screeching halt and recovered somewhat towards the end of May. Overall, I'd have to rate it as a good season for me.

Chases: 15
Miles: 6883
Avg Chase Distance: 458 miles
Tornado Days: 6
Tornadoes: 13
States Chased: OK, TX, KS, AR
 
I have been trying to get the ball rolling again starting in the 2012 season, although it was a difficult year for chasing, I do not think I did too bad.

Chases:4
Miles: 2750
Avg chase distance: ?
Tornado Days: 3
Tornadoes: Between 13-20 Still trying to count through them
States Chases: IN, MI, KS

started the season out in march in Michigan where I lost the fuel pump in my car.
Hit it big on the high risk April 14 in Kansas, followed by a long drout that we all felt. Picked in back up in July, and September in Indiana.

Here to better outlook for 2013, good luck to all
 
Very limited chase year for me, due to my move from IL to CO in May and preparations for it, and due to a general lack of storms at the times when I actually could chase. My first tornadoless year in five years - closest I got was a gustnado in the TX panhandle on 4/11 and a funnel cloud in southwest IL on 4/28. Not counting local chases for lightning, storm structure, and/or unusual combinations of precipitation in storms that had no chance of producing tornadoes, here are my chase statistics:

Chase days: 5
Miles: around 1600
States chased: NM, TX, IL, CO

Most interesting storms I saw this year were actually intense winter convection events, with snow, graupel, and 1-inch hail in CO on 4/15 and a storm on 11/5 in CO that combined accumulating graupel with CG lightning, allowing me to get my best-ever shot of CG lightning associated with winter precipitation.
 
CHASES: 22
MILES: 10,000 - 20,000 (haven't finished compiling my logs)
AVERAGE CHASE DISTANCE: Several hundred
TORNADO DAYS: 4
TORNADOES: 8 (which includes 3 waterspouts)
BUSTS (Lack of supercell structure): 11
STATES CHASED: IL, IN, MI, WI, MN, ND, SD, KS, NE, CO, OK

Misc stats...
WINDSHIELDS CRACKED: 1
SPEEDING TICKETS: 0 (First in a few years with just a warning from an Oakie trooper on April 13!)
AERIAL CHASES: 3
TIMES DRIVEN THROUGH PRATT ON APRIL 12-14: 4
FIRST TORNADO IN: IN, MI


The raw numbers aren't flattering, but I consider 2012 to be one of my best chase seasons.

Tornado wise, the Henryville EF4 was right up there at top for me. Being able to witness one of the most powerful tornadoes of the year, vorticity noodles, thunderous roar and all from a fixed position, was easily worth more than all of the other count padding tornadoes I saw the rest of the season. One of the most awesome tornadoes I've seen, up there with Bowdle and Conger.

After that April 14, was our next biggest tornado day. We counted four and were close enough to two to touch them, but we still missed the most photogenic tubes of the day. We couldn't keep up with the Langley/Salina cell without core punching so dropped south before it produced and got lesser tornadoes.

April 13 we squeaked out 1 after dark, not wanting to tangle with with the RFD core on the rain wrapped Cooperton storm, ducking out of the way before it struck town. We saw maybe two lightning illuminated flashes of a rope from a distance of 5 or more miles before it was gone. If it weren't for the great structure earlier in the day, I'd actually count the chase a bust, despite seeing a tornado. It was one of the least photogenic tornadoes I've seen, definite count padder.

The other big tornado action for me was a waterspout chase with Jenn Brindley Ubl and Jon Williamson in Michigan this September. We counted three, and one formed overhead and actually struck land so the local office logged it as a regular tornado. I count all spouts as tornadoes regardless of the consistency of the material they are over so it was a good day for us.

2012 had a lot of epic chase adventure that didn't necessarily include tornadoes. May 22, 23, and 25 were my first storm chases in an airplane. That was an unbelievable experience, and although we couldn't pull off the tornado intercept, it's a high point in my chase career being able to do that.

Between auroras, the badlands, milky way, wicked supercells and wildfires, the northern plains run we did in June was also a high point for the season. Again, no tornadoes, but it was such an enjoyable outing with so many sights, that it's become of my favorite multi-day plains runs.

Bring on '13, won't complain too much if it's like '12.
 
I'll avoid stats since I don't keep track of them and mine don't impress me that much anyway. Instead, I'll focus on actual events. March 2 in southern Indiana was one of my best chases ever. Intercepting the Henryville EF4 at its inception near Palmyra and tracking with it as it crossed the road ahead of us, strengthening and widening--that was one heck of a chase, particularly with the storm moving as fast as it did. It was also my first truly great chase documented with a decent hi-def video camera that was worthy of the storm. Finally, after all these years!

April 13 in Oklahoma was a day-before event made memorable by a tornado striking Norman not far from Ben Holcomb's apartment; and afterwards, by a beautiful supercell moving over the Wichita Mountains. But the next day, April 14, was the real payday. It's hard to pin down the number of tornadoes we saw since they continued after dark. Our team agreed on six; I'm certain of at least three, but I have no problem believing the higher number.

April 15, it was low-topped supercells in central MN, with one storm's updraft area rotating wildly as it approached and crossed the warm front. That was something to see.

Finally, on September 22 I witnessed a number of waterspouts along the Lake Michigan shoreline at Holland Beach, Tunnel Park, and Grand Haven Beach, with one of two close ones at Tunnel Park making landfall about 100 yards north of me. I couldn't have asked for a more dramatic experience for my first successful waterspout chase, and getting the landfalling spout on video, including the swish of the wind over the water, made it even better.

All in all, I'm happy with what I got. Finances being lean, I couldn't have made many long-distance chases, so for me, the paucity of strong setups after April 14 was a good thing in that it spared me the intense frustration I felt last year.
 
8 tornadoes, 8756 miles

Jan 22 Saw multiple power flashes from a tornado that tracked near DeWitt, AR.

March 18 Wide dusty tornado. Very brief satellite rope. Elephant trunk near dark.

April 3 Dallas area tornadoes. Found myself on the North side of Dallas and chickened out trying to drop south through the city. Did catch a nice snaking funnel the day before.

April 13, 14…. Saw some great storms on the 13 in SW OK. On the 14th caught a tornado on dash cam early in the day while I was looking at a map, having a sneezing fit and clipping my toe nails or something. Sat and watched a tornado at dusk for around 10 minutes as it changed shapes and came pretty near my location right at the OK/KS line. This was the highlight of the year for me.

May 29-30…. On 29th Saw a very brief dust whirl tornado near Kingfisher, OK but the storm made the day… what a storm. Saw a few more very impressive storms on the 30th back down in TX.

August 28-29… Hurricane Isaac…. Witnessed storm surge out of lake Pontchartrain at LaPlace LA. Woke up to a surge of water filling the ditches and quickly rising and flowing down the street. I regret not getting some of it on video, but was concerned with getting out of there at the time.

Oct 12-14 Saw a couple of weak short lived tornadoes North of Lubbock.

Dec 25 Most uneventful chase ever in southern LA. Snowing when I got back home.
 
Total chases: 15
Total tornadoes: 10
Tornado days: 4
States chased: IN, KY, IL, OK, KS, TX, NE, ND, MN, IA

New milestones accomplished:

- First Kentucky tornadoes (2) on March 2nd which were also the:
- Earliest tornadoes seen in a season
- First chase in ND, KY

Despite the seemingly impressive stats, 2012 was a pretty rotten year for me. On the 2 big tornado days I chased, (March 2nd and April 14th) I missed the big, photogenic catches but did manage to get other lesser tornadoes. I would feel better catches about them if I was able to get decent video, but the ones on March 2nd were in horrible terrain and we watched them in between trees. April 14th I caught 5 tornadoes, 3 being weak pathetic bird farts and 2 really nice ones at dusk/after dark. Still no good video there so thinking back on the day still frustrates me.

I failed to film the Saddle Mountain tornado (April 13th - the tornado after Cooperton) because I wasn't convinced it was a tornado at first, but it in fact was and by the time I started filming it was half a funnel and dissipating.

October 12th was a good all around chase with very large hail, decent, structure and a pair of weak tornadoes, had those tornadoes been fully condensed and lasted longer than 30 seconds that day could have been the season redemption, but it at least ended on a positive note.

Lots of bust days though, the most of any season. My home turf in N IL even blue sky busted on a 5% tor 30% hatched hail day. I've never had that happen before. Overall a difficult year from me, one of my worst. If 2013 is worse, youll find me in a self induced coma at the nearest hospital.
 
Chases: 20
Tornadoes: 12 (4 "quality" tubes)
Tornado Days: 5 (2 "quality" days)
States: TX, OK, KS, NM... + NE/SD for bust on 5/5 (would've been fewest states since 2006 otherwise!)
Miles: ~12,500

No-supercell busts: 2/2 (NW TX), 4/2 (SW OK), 4/12 (SW KS), 4/26 (TX PH), 4/27 (E KS), 5/5 (SE SD), 6/12 (NE NM), 11/10 (C KS)

This was easily the roughest year for chasers in general since 2006, though for me personally, it so happens 2009 was even worse. My entire year hinged on a late intercept of the Cherokee-Manchester supercell on 4/14 right before sunset, without which this would have been an unspeakably bad season for a chaser with 7 years experience going out 20 times. I came dangerously close to blowing that, too, when I lost all data for about an hour before Cherokee.

Down years really make you stew over perceived missed opportunities, since there aren't many successful days to fill your memory. In this case, I keep wondering what might've happened on 3/18 if we had a little more moisture, especially up north in the Panhandles and SW KS. I also feel 5/5 along the NE/SD border might've overperformed if the effective warm front weren't driven so far south due to morning convection... but that assumes moisture wouldn't have still been a major limiting factor. 4/12 along the dryline was yet another example of scary hodographs with poor timing and moisture mixing out. All three of these days are things you'd see even in a good year, but a few Manchester or Canton or Bowdle days mixed in makes you forget them pretty fast!
 
CHASES: 25
TORNADO DAYS: 8
TORNADOES: 24
STATES CHASED: TX, NM, OK, KS, NE, CO, ND, IA

Not my worst year ever (that's still 2009). Better than last year. I was pretty ambitious with chasing this year and went all out. My first big day was March 18 where I was in command of a 2 car convoy of chasers. Sitting up in Pampa, TX till about 4:30 then raced SE to catch the Mangum/Willow, OK tornado machine. Next success was that fine week in April where I spent 6 days straight chasing (and only 1 cap bust: April 12). April 9 I made it to the Woodward storm and followed it down to I-40 and saw 6 tornadoes from that beast. April 10 and 11 was good for some supercell structure in the panhandle, including the storm that dumped 4 feet of hail north of Amarillo. April 13 I was in SW OK to be face to face with the tornadoes near Blair, OK. April 14 is a regretful day, despite seeing 6 tornadoes that day. The only daytime tornado was a bird fart spinup near Pretty Prairie, KS, but got south in time to watch the a storm spawn several nighttime tornadoes that would eventually hit Wichita, KS. May 19-28 was a week of chasecation with Brady Kendrick, Tony Propp, and James Siler. We found ourselves 40 miles south of North Dakota to witness a bird fart tornado west of Minot. And the next day we were in NW Iowa to see a brief tornado near Ute. June 12 was a great day in eastern NM where Brady and I witnessed the best supercell structure of our lives, which was topped off with a brief tornado underneath the mothership. The rest of the season was filled with short chases that were complimented with great photogenic structure and lightning. And TX was great to me again in near Hale Center where I got my first 2 October tornadoes.

A lot of my tornadoes this year were not very photogenic. And the biggest screw ups I had were April 14, and May 25 where my engine blew up in my car on the way to Kansas. Next year I'm going to invest in a reliable chase vehicle (Toyota 4Runner most likely), and hopefully get some more action close to home.
 
Chases: 8
Tornado days: 3
Tornadoes: 7
States chased: MN, SD, OK, KS, NE

My worst year so far, and I remember telling people this was going to "be my year" and I'd bag 30 after honing my chase skills. Sometimes you can chase really well, and mother nature just doesn't cooperate. Changed jobs, remodeled kitchen, and a few other things that just sucked up all my time. One or two really good chases (5/25) I had to sit out due to work obligations.

Sat out a few early chases in TX/OK that would've panned out, and got real excited when I saw the big trough sweeping through in the middle of April. We went down two days before the big show and messed with some storms on the CO/KS border that just couldn't get their act together. Got on the big HP beast in OK the next day and just couldn't get in a good position due to the road network around the mountains and fear of baseball hail reports while in a brand new car. Saw two tornadoes that day but nothing worthwhile video/photo wise. On the big day (4/14) we started in Salina and were headed up to NE when we got distracted by tornado warned storms at 11am. After realizing the storms in SW KS had overshooting tops and were limiting heating up north, we stayed in central KS and drove loops until midnight. My first KS tornado was also my first EF-4, and one of the closest I've been to. The next day we blasted north to MN to bust on a high shear/low instability day. 5/1 and 5/2 in MN were good for some fun HP storms. Cap busted in Yankton, SD twice in a row. Bagged the last tornado of the year on a tiny little supercell in MN on 6/17. Very slow year, and not at all what I was expecting.
 
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CHASES: 10
MILES: 4504
TORNADO DAYS: 4
TORNADOES: 4
STATES CHASED OK, TX

Due to work and home obligations taking precedence I didn't get to go out on some of the better days including a local outbreak in the DFW area. My most interesting day without question was 10/12 near Hale Center,TX. I'm hoping 2013 affords many more similar opportunities.
 
Rating the quality of a season is always something that is relative to your own efforts and success, and more often than not there is some controversy with other chasers on how the season should be perceived. 2012 is no exception. While the number of quality days were limited, there were a handful of chases that really stood out.

For me the season began on March 18th in southwest Oklahoma. 2012 started with 4 tornadoes on the first chase. While the contrast was low, the tornadoes were rather easy to intercept and we ended up with a front row seat to the tornado near Willow.

April 13 and 14th: Missed the tornadoes in southwest Oklahoma on the 13th. The 14th ended up being my best chase since 2008 and the best of 2012. The storm which tracked across northwest Oklahoma went "tornado crazy" cycling over a dozen tornadoes, sometimes two at once. We saw 8-12 tornadoes depending on how one counts them.

Aside from April 13, April 30th was the only other tornado day I chased in 2012 where I failed to intercept tornadoes. I missed the storm north of Enid which produced a nice tornado after dark as I was on the supercell to the west.

May 2 featured a nice supercell at dusk in southeast Nebraska which produced two tornadoes after dark.

Things got quiet after that....then....

May 25: Intercepted the storm which moved through Russell, KS. Witnessed the entire life cycle of the tornado at sunset southwest of town, including the entire evolution of the parent tornado cyclone.

May 29: Intercepted the storm of the day in central Oklahoma and saw the elephant trunk tornado near Peidmont. Ran into Jeff Piotrowski who was "tornado hyper-active" as usual.....good times!

May 30: Chased the largest supercell (mesocyclone) in northwest Texas and saw a tornado/landspout/RFD gustnado hybrid hit Paducah, TX and cause minor damage.
 
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