brice.coffer
EF0
Over the next 24-48hrs, a shortwave trough will begin to dig and eject eastward towards the Northern Plains. The ECMWF has been very consistent over the past several days, so my confidence in this setup is pretty high. The southern vorticity lobes in KS/NE look the most interesting to me. Between 18Z and 00Z, the surface winds back and the dryline sharpens in response to a deepening surface low in W KS. A pretty stout cap is in place over the warm sector on Sunday, however the ECMWF has been consistently breaking out precip by mid to late afternoon in an environment of 80F+/60F+ with moderate instability and 35+kts of bulk shear. The UL support is NW of this instability axis, creating a difluent region favorable for cap erosion and thunderstorm development.
My main concern right now is moisture quality/depth and the effect that will have on LCLs. The tornado threat might be marginal because of high LCLs. Also, forecast soundings from the NAM are not as veered as the ECMWF. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms, most likely supercellular, are probable by late afternoon before evolving into QLCS as more UL forcing arrives later in the night. I hope to have time to look at the morning NAM later this afternoon .
My main concern right now is moisture quality/depth and the effect that will have on LCLs. The tornado threat might be marginal because of high LCLs. Also, forecast soundings from the NAM are not as veered as the ECMWF. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms, most likely supercellular, are probable by late afternoon before evolving into QLCS as more UL forcing arrives later in the night. I hope to have time to look at the morning NAM later this afternoon .