Jason Persoff
EF3
I'm not seeing any chatter on tomorrow, and in particular, not in the locations that the GFS suggest to me. While the SWODY2 highlights a See Text over KS, my eye is much more focused farther south into OK.
The right entrance region of a potent H5 jet streak will move over OK by 00z. A dry punch appears to form over the TX PH into W OK during that time frame. The cap is potent as you move south with temperatures exceeding 10-15 degrees over much of OK. With the dry punch serving as a focusing mechanism, storms that do form should be able to be sustained courtesy of the upper levels. Unfortunately, CAPE will be in short supply, but rotational and speed shear are both in place.
Lacking the accustom familiarity of the COD site for finer scale details, I'm left hoping that sfc obs and SAT in am will help distinguish a defined spot. OFBs from tonight will likely serve to locally enhance convection.
Preliminary target will be nonspecifically in NW OK possibly into SW KS.
The right entrance region of a potent H5 jet streak will move over OK by 00z. A dry punch appears to form over the TX PH into W OK during that time frame. The cap is potent as you move south with temperatures exceeding 10-15 degrees over much of OK. With the dry punch serving as a focusing mechanism, storms that do form should be able to be sustained courtesy of the upper levels. Unfortunately, CAPE will be in short supply, but rotational and speed shear are both in place.
Lacking the accustom familiarity of the COD site for finer scale details, I'm left hoping that sfc obs and SAT in am will help distinguish a defined spot. OFBs from tonight will likely serve to locally enhance convection.
Preliminary target will be nonspecifically in NW OK possibly into SW KS.