Eric Bucsela
EF2
Potential for some severe on Thursday. I like the negative-tilt trough impacting the High Plains late in the day, putting parts of CO/KS/NE in the left exit region with divergent flow and good directional shear. Instability/moisture are also decent - at least farther south, where NAM and GFS have CAPES over 3000 in OK & S KS, and over 1000 J/kg in parts of E CO.
I'm not clear about the shortwave timing yet - NAM looks fastest, GFS/ECMWF are slower - which will have obvious impacts on initiation. For its part, NAM shows very little CIN in CO and W KS and breaks out precip before 00z. It's a little early for the CO season, but definitely worth watching...
I'm not clear about the shortwave timing yet - NAM looks fastest, GFS/ECMWF are slower - which will have obvious impacts on initiation. For its part, NAM shows very little CIN in CO and W KS and breaks out precip before 00z. It's a little early for the CO season, but definitely worth watching...