Tim Shriver
EF4
I had been suspecting that the SPC would up the slight risk to a moderate risk if the models showed a good flow of moisture up into this area. This combined with some very strong shear we could see some large tornadoes and hail in the targeted area.
The question is now will we get enough day time heating. Models seem in good agreement, well as much as they can be.
We may not see real high CAPEs with dewpoints getting into only the 60's near ARX but the strong shear should more than make up for that. If the CAPEs do get higher than the forecasted 1200-1500 J/kg that will just add more flames to the fire.
The 70 kt LLJ will factor in to this later in the day and early evening as it noses its way into SW WI.
Temps and recovery are also a concern with the moring crapvection we are now having, but I think it will clear out enough toward
early to mid afternoon for some good heating getting temps into the mid to upper 70's. Some spots may even get into the 80's.
My starting point is going to be Dubuque IA. I can then move as needed.
Note: KARX radar is down for DP conversion. Could not of picked a better time.
Tim
The question is now will we get enough day time heating. Models seem in good agreement, well as much as they can be.
We may not see real high CAPEs with dewpoints getting into only the 60's near ARX but the strong shear should more than make up for that. If the CAPEs do get higher than the forecasted 1200-1500 J/kg that will just add more flames to the fire.
The 70 kt LLJ will factor in to this later in the day and early evening as it noses its way into SW WI.
Temps and recovery are also a concern with the moring crapvection we are now having, but I think it will clear out enough toward
early to mid afternoon for some good heating getting temps into the mid to upper 70's. Some spots may even get into the 80's.
My starting point is going to be Dubuque IA. I can then move as needed.
Note: KARX radar is down for DP conversion. Could not of picked a better time.
Tim