2012-04-11 FCST: NM/CO/OK/TX

[John Farley]

Little surprised there is not a thread for tomorrow by now. It won't be a huge day, but certainly could be worth chasing if you're close, which I am in Santa Fe. Dryline will set up a little farther west than usual in SE Colorado and eastern New Mexico. There will be sufficient instability for strong storms and good directional shear along and east of the dryline, although the wind fields are rather weak. Still, I think the combination of instability and shear will be enough to get some supercells in the early stages of the event, although they may evolve with time into a more linear organization as they move east into the Panhandles. I think the place to be is along the dryline by the time of initiation, likely to be around mid-day or early afternoon. Not totally sure I will chase this event yet, but if I do, my preliminary target based on what I am seeing now would be around Tucumcari, NM. The tornado potential is not high with this, but with the directional shear present a tornado or two is certainly possible, and the likelihood of supercells appears quite good.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Initial target will be areas north of 1-40 in the NW TX panhandle / far SE corner of Colorado.

Majority of models show best late afternoon helicities in the region along with favorable upslope flow and acceptable CAPE values.

W.

 

[Bryan Stokes]

I’m planning on targeting storms coming off the Palmer Divide, and perhaps storms to the south towards Pueblo. Disclaimer: I’m targeting this area because I have to work until mid-afternoon, so my chase area is somewhat limited. If I can get out of work earlier and reach SE CO, then I may target the better area near SE CO/NE NM/OK Panhandle.

Looking at the 12Z NAM, the Palmer Divide/Front Range target has a nice pocket of 40kt Sfc-500 mb Bulk Shear. CAPE is modeled to be 750 j/kg and there is a somewhat decent range of 0-3km EHI in the neighborhood of 1.25 – 1.75. Certainly not great, but perhaps just enough to get the job done if a storm can find locally enhanced conditions.

The wind fields do not impress me much. I do like the upslope flow in the southern half of CO. SFC winds are backed near Pueblo, but quickly veer at points northward. Winds do have good veering with height, but the upper-air support, especially at the 500mb level appears to be somewhat weak. Still, it may be enough to keep things going.

I have not had a chance to get out this season yet, and will miss the show this Thur – Sat due to an airshow in Arizona, so today looks like a good day to get out and knock the dust off. And you never know, every now and then, some High Plains magic kicks in and produces an amazing show!

Bryan