2012-04-06 FCST: KS/OK/TX

[Andrew Stoller]

Just glancing at the models, it looks like Friday in northwest KS might hold the possibility of at least an isolated threat of supercells. Moisture return isn't great but it is the high plains afterall. 50+ degree dew points with 1,500 to 1,700 J of CAPE. The area is right at the base of a negative tilt shortwave trough, although the best flow is further northwest. Directional shear and helicty is quite strong. The only fly in the ointment is CINH and a capping inversion. If something can pop through, I could see a nicely chaseable structured LP supercell a distinct possibility. Dryline convergence looks to be quite favorable.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Toss in Oklahoma and Texas to the mix. NAM is bringing in mid 50 dews to the eastern TX panhandle and the GFS is trying to nudge in some 60s. Very good shear profiles in this area too. The CINH seems to be weak enough to pop around 0z. As the evening wears on, the low level jet really starts cranking out of the SE to near 50kts. Anything isolated and ongoing might be able to sample this LLJ and maybe spit out a tornado or two. CINH will be filling in over night so these storms should die off after the sun goes down. Looks like a decent little local chase for me coming up if we do indeed realize mid to upper 50 dews.

 

[Skip Talbot]

LSI showing a pretty narrow hole in the cap and it isn't open very long:

http://68.226.77.253/models/eta/central/CENTRAL_ETA212_ATMOS_LSI_57HR.gif
http://68.226.77.253/models/eta/central/CENTRAL_ETA212_ATMOS_LSI_60HR.gif
http://68.226.77.253/models/eta/central/CENTRAL_ETA212_ATMOS_LSI_63HR.gif

You've got a fairly brief window of opportunity to work with there. A few blips of low level instability are promising:
http://68.226.77.253/models/eta/central/CENTRAL_ETA212_0-3KM_CAPE_60HR.gif
But those rapidly drop off after 0z too.

Otherwise shear profiles support supercells with 50-60 knots of effective shear and 200+ effective storm relative helicity. Upper 50's dews and instability 1000-2000 J/Kg is marginal, but adequate for supercells given the elevation. I'd probably try and get something coming off the Caprock in the eastern TX panhandle. Given the relatively weak flow aloft, you'll need that upslope lift dealing with this cap. Areas further north into Kansas might have trouble initiating. The window of opportunity is not open long on this setup, but you could get a nicely structured upslope supercell/brief tornado out of it.