jshields
Tomorrow(well today now) looks to be a very good day before the main show. it looks like a classic warm front set up as low pressure sets up along the colorado and kansas border with the warm front retreating to the ks/ne border by late afternoon. easterly/southeasterly surface winds veering to westerly mid level winds of 50 kts at 500 mb will lead to very good shear. very steep low and mid level lapse rate greater than 8.0 c/km and tons of low level cape(NAM has near 300 J/kg) will lead to storms with very large hail and tornadoes. the NAM has tons of precip breaking out early, but the WRF is peculiar with its lack of storms and nothing really popping til out in the nebraska panhandle in the evening. a moderate risk has been issued, as i type this, and i see there is now a moderate risk for day 2 as well!! i'll be out both days hopefully finally getting my first tornado of the season.