Drew.Gardonia
on the models for Tuesday this setup looks pretty good, especially in WRN/MID TN. GFS run on the 00Z + 48 hours shows CAPE ranging from 2000-4000 j/kg, with relatively low cap, storms should have no problem pushing through and firing, SFC Dewpoints in the 70's and 80's, however, soundings and hodographs do not appear impressive or indicative of tornadic activity, however, cloud bases will be low enough to support wall cloud development, so a brief tornado or two can't be ruled out.
However, the NAM and GFS seem to be in strong disagreement as to the location, as the NAM is more supportive of tornadic activity over N. Central/Central MO with helicity values ranging from 200-450, and CAPE up to 4000 j/kg, 0-1km values up to 7, and 0-3km values of 12. upper level windshear should be strong, in excess of 60 kts, with lower level shear of around 20-30 kts. Hodographs and soundings are more suggestive of tornadic activity.
I'm not too sure what to make of the models, since both are in strong disagreement, but I may go a bit north of Nashville as it stands right now, however, as Tues afternoon approaches, I will make adjustments based on the models and see what transpires, but could be an interesting setup.
However, the NAM and GFS seem to be in strong disagreement as to the location, as the NAM is more supportive of tornadic activity over N. Central/Central MO with helicity values ranging from 200-450, and CAPE up to 4000 j/kg, 0-1km values up to 7, and 0-3km values of 12. upper level windshear should be strong, in excess of 60 kts, with lower level shear of around 20-30 kts. Hodographs and soundings are more suggestive of tornadic activity.
I'm not too sure what to make of the models, since both are in strong disagreement, but I may go a bit north of Nashville as it stands right now, however, as Tues afternoon approaches, I will make adjustments based on the models and see what transpires, but could be an interesting setup.
