2011-04-14 FCST: OK/KS/TX

[Paul Sherman]

Agree with that Stan - Having just viewed the 06z Nam and the early part of the 06z GFS A compromise between the 2 looks likely. I still have doubts about the Moisture returning in time for the KS/OK Border target, with 63f on the Texas Gulf Coast at the moment, stronger surface winds have advected some low 60's to around Waco/Austin area but slacker surface flow further East of DFW at the moment with high 40's atm into SE Oklahoma. Chase target in my blog below and good luck to all out chasing especially further east into the Hillier parts of Eastern and SE Oklahoma.

http://plainschaser.blogspot.com/2011/04/april-14th-2011-chase-target.html

 

[W. Grant Dade]

Tomorrow does have some resemblance to 4/9/09 (see the 4/9/09 page in the Severe Thunderstorms Events database), though tomorrow looks like it'll be farther north (take 4/9/09 and shift northward). In the end, I hope the result isn't the same, however, since I just drove around far northeastern Oklahoma in a quasi-linear convective mess. As you noted, though, there were some tornadic supercells farther south. On the other hand, I think tomorrow's setup looks very different from 4/2/82 (see maps here). We won't have 65-70 F dewpoints, and the upper-level pattern looks quite different.

I agree on the dew points compared to 04/02/82 but the upper air pattern to me at least looks fairly similar. I know the low cuts off today and this did not happen in ’82 but the 200mb jet streak and the position of the 500mb vort max look close to what the models prog for today. 04/03/82_0Zhttp://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/data/1982/04/reanal_1982040300.gifNow the position of the surface low looks different as well. I am just pointing out there are some subtle comparisons to some other April severe weather events. (I couldn't see the 0Z upper air pattern on that link)




My Main point I was trying to make was the set up is very similar to the April ’09 event, The southern end this day was not the main focus on forecasters but it turned out to be a big severe weather event. Like you said, shift this north and I like the odds of an isolated tornadic supercell near the Red River this evening.

I like the looks of the NAM sounding for PRX.
Looking at the NAM soundings the moisture is not as deep as it was on yesterday’s 12Z run, at least for North Texas.

 

[Michael Riedl]

Based on the 11z RUC the northern play would not be bad at all. SErly surface winds at 20 MPH, 925 Winds at SE 40 KNTS and 850's at S/SE at 50 knts. Thats pretty good, however 500mb winds are less than desirable so that is the main problem with this area.

Even with you get this Skew-T Hodo.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...iew=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y

 

[Chris Vagasky]

HRRR has been consistent in showing development along the dryline by 21-22z in 3 locations:

1. I-35 corridor between Norman and Pauls Valley, Oklahoma

2. I-35 corridor near Ponca City, Oklahoma

3. I-35 corridor between Sherman and Waco, Texas

 

[weskranz]

I'll be leaving Flower Mound at 12:30 and heading towards Pauls Valley as a starting point. I'm hoping the better moisture in Central/Southern OK will yield a few strong cells before we hit 75 and tough chase geography. I'd love to see initiation around 21z a bit further west to give us a better chance of a decent chase, but I'm not really expecting it. Stay safe to all chasing today. See you in Oklahoma....

Wes

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

High risk upgrade is likely this afternoon for parts OKLA. Quick update I like three area's for tornados today, 20-02Z SE/KS Tornados likely. 22Z-3Z ADM- FSM damaging tornado's after 21Z-6Z time frame. Tulsa area 1Z-5Z with an also significant tornado’s close to metro.

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Any chance of the OKC area seeing anything is rapidly going out the window as the dryline has mixed well further east than the models had prog'd by 17z.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

Target as of now is north of Stillwater at the intersection of those two main highways. It's 177 and can't remember the other east west highway. I am torn between there and Ponca City so I'll drive to Ponca first and then cut south from there is we need to. It looks like there is a small bulge in the dryline north of OKC where the moisture gradient tightens up a bit and mesoanalysis page is showing an increase in moisture convergence. I am going to get off the northeast side of that and adjust as things evolve.
Everything seems to be coming together quite nicely for a tornado outbreak this afternoon. Just a lot of uncertainty on where exactly to target. As others have mentioned each portion of the dryline has its advantages and disadvantages. Good luck if you are heading out.

 

[Tim Marshall]

Likes how the moisture is moving northward into EC OK. Target is east of I-35 between TUL and MLC.

 

[Trey Thee]

This is looking like one of the more significant April events in recent years for NE OK. I also think we'll see a high risk at the very least for portions of SE OK. We should see watches go up in the next hour and I would suspect initiation by 4pm or so. Mikey, I think the area is broad enough you pretty much just need to pick a spot, pick a storm and go with it. SE OK appears to be the best area for long track tornadoes but that area is hell to chase through. This system could also bring significant severe weather over into Arkansas and could be a overnight outbreak in that area. Pretty dangerous situation setting up for Arkansas IMO.
Additionally, I don't see any parameters falling apart at this point. Shear looks ample, CAPE will be quite good, moisture return is on track with most forecasts and model data. Hoping I can shake free from the office and head west.

 

[Fred Dearborn]

MD's are out for Ks/Ok and looks to be a significant threat for eastern half of Ok.Plenty of moisture to work with for sure.Going to stay put in Shawnee and see if initiation will start just east of I-35 as the dryline seems to be just west of there.

 

[Brian Mette]

PDS Tornado Watch just issued for eastern Oklahoma. Looking at visible satellite, it looks like a line of cumulus clouds are rapidly forming along the dryline/along I-35. Poking my head out the door, I can see at least one or two towers going up to the north. I would imagine thunderstorm initiation is imminent.

 

[ahaberlie]

Excuse the theory here but with ample CAPE and wind shear, most of Oklahoma is under the gun.. however

It looks as though the best potential inflow vectors vs. environmental vorticity (based on the convective rolls on the satellite imagery) point to south central and south east Oklahoma having the greatest threat of large tornadoes, in my opinion. Of course, this is all relative.. because the whole freakin' eastern portion of the state has a great environment set up..

 

[James Langford]

I'm kind of concerned that we could see a major cell track through the DFW area this evening. Rick Smith posted a high resolution WRF model loop showing storms firing all along the dry line. There was a large cell that appeared to fire to the West of Dallas and track right through the area.