2008 Year in Tornadoes

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Ok so I was in the middle of typing up a long thread about the 2008 forecast of tornadoes when apparently I hit a button and the page went back and logged me off.
So Ill try to rewrite what I was about to say but it will be shortened as I dont remember everything I said.

Anyways. I have a strong feeling that this year will be a all-time record setting year in # of tornadoes, tornado intensity, damage, fatalities, etc...
Now you may think its easy for me to say this based on fact we're so far ahead this year and in terms of such colossal scale in all factors just listed. But several things go into this. One being history. If history means anything, we're screwed. The last time I can remember a major tornado outbreak in January was 1999 and we all know what kind of year that was. Also several meteorological factors come in to play that can best be described as positive feedback mechanisms. Now Gabe hit on this earlier in the week so maybe he can give a better detailed explanation than me. But take a look at the Gulf. We already have 60-70 dews in place. Normally this time of year, fronts would still be making it to the Gulf and scouring it clean. Secondly, look at current snow cover.

While this is a crude map, it still shows that there is significant snow cover in upper midwest and Rocky Mtn states (as well as KS from looking at todays vis sat). This keep surface temps down as all the heating goes into melting snow rather then heating surface. Thus preventing cold air masses that come down from modifying. So when this unmodified cold air comes down and encounters unseasonably warm air mass, its going to have dramatic effects. Now whats causing this early surge of mositure? I dont know, it might possibly be the fact were in an La Nina cycle. Now I dont have dont on hand to confirm that but it is something to look at. Also look at this years winter as a whole. A wet/cold winter will lead to greater ground/soil moisture which leads to more evapotranspiration which prevents boundary layer from mixing out so early in the day,etc...

Now those are just but a few mesoscale features that I can point to as to whats possibly causing an increase in tornadoes but obviously im leaving a lot out, i.e. shear. With that in mind, it is interesting to note last Mondays (2/4) 500mb map. The synoptic flow was as meridional as Ive ever seen it this early in the year. The flow was as about as u-shaped as I've ever seen it across the U.S.

So I think were in for a year of tornadoes unlike we havent seen in at least a decade. Hopefully others here on this forum with more meteorological knowledge then me can expound upon this.

With regard to this thread topic I came across some interesting statistical data. Heres a little of what I came across.
FROM: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/monthlytornstats.html

NOTE: Data in this figure only goes back to 2005, therefore it doesnt really put this year in perspective.

 

[Chris Hayes]

I went to Wikipedia and looked up tornados of 2008 and I got this page. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornadoes_of_2008 According to Wiki we've had at least 137 confirmed torandos so far this year. Last time we had that many so early in the year was in 1999. 2004 was a record breaking year for tornados, but we had VERY FEW in Jan and Feb. I use Severeplot a lot to look up certain tornado events and I came up with a couple of other interesting statistics.

We're in the busiest start to the year for tornados since 1999
The Super Tuesday Outbreak was the deadliest since the Ohio/Pa outbreak of 1985
We're off to the deadliest start of the year since 1971 when 121 were killed in the Feb 21 Mississippi Outbreak

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I totally agree with you Chris. Also in 1999 we were in a La Nina.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I totally agree with you Chris. Also in 1999 we were in a La Nina.

Yes,but it was a moderate strong La Nina. This year, forecasts see a decreasing Nina in the last months of the year.

I hope it won't be like forecasts and it will be as more as possible like 1999

 

[mike scantlin]

Well Andrea, I hope it isn't like 1999. We've already seen too many deaths this year.

There is nothing cool about tornado outbreaks. I'll take 2006 over 1999 any year.

 

[Chris Hayes]

I love gathering up statistics on all kinds of stuff, and here's a couple more.

1998 - 1423 confirmed tornados and 130 fatalities. Two F5s
1999 - 1337 confirmed tornados and 94 fatalities. One F5

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Well Andrea, I hope it isn't like 1999. We've already seen too many deaths this year.

There is nothing cool about tornado outbreaks. I'll take 2006 over 1999 any year.

Mike, believe me, I think there's no one here who wants so many fatalities. When you want a good chasing year, generally you want supercells and tornadoes:I think this is the thinking of all chasers. This does not imply that you want deaths and destruction: the dream of a chaser is too see a tornado in the open fields, not over a city, and that's obvious.All other words are pleonastic.

 

[Shane Adams]

I don't think it means anything other than it's been way crazy and above-average to this point in 2008. You'd have to go back at least 30 or more years and scour each year individually looking for trends that support the theories listed (snow pack, high dews already in place, etc etc). There would need to be some type of long-term climatological consistency regarding each factor before one could start assuming things based on them in a particular year.

As for 1999, it really wasn't a spectacular season throughout, like the numbers show. There were a handful of major outbreaks, but event to event, storm to storm, month to month, it was average at best. So the early start we had in January that year really didn't foreshadow a "season to end all seasons".

As for 2004, I can remember real plain all the doomsday posters on ST the first week in May, declaring the season a bust, possibly the worst since 1988. We all know what happened later that month. Just another glaring example of the futility of long-range tornado forecasting.

Tornadoes aren't hurricanes. You can't just throw a dart and then change your mind when you first guess doesn't happen (how many mulligans a year does that guy get anyway?). They are impossible to forecast more than a few days out, with any degree of certainty. And there is no way to forecast an entire season, only guessing.

As I always say on this thread, ask me in July. I'll tell you what I think then

 

[Bill Tabor]

Anyways. I have a strong feeling that this year will be a all-time record setting year in # of tornadoes, tornado intensity, damage, fatalities, etc...
Now you may think its easy for me to say this based on fact we're so far ahead this year and in terms of such colossal scale in all factors just listed. But several things go into this. One being history. If history means anything, we're screwed. The last time I can remember a major tornado outbreak in January was 1999 and we all know what kind of year that was.

You just jinxed us. Therefore it will likely be one of the worst years ever, due to one of Murphy's Laws corollary.

Murphy's Laws

1. If anything can go wrong, it will.
2. If there is a possibility of several things going wrong, the one that will cause the most damage will be the first one to go wrong.
3. If anything just cannot go wrong, it will anyway.
4. If you perceive that there are four possible ways in which something can go wrong, and circumvent these, then a fifth way, unprepared for, will promptly develop.
5. Left to themselves, things tend to go from bad to worse.
6. If everything seems to be going well, you have obviously overlooked something.
7. Nature always sides with the hidden flaw.
8. Mother nature is a *****.

Addition to Murphy's Laws

In nature, nothing is ever right. Therefore, if everything is going right ... something is wrong.

Gumperson's Law

The probability of anything happening is in inverse ratio to its desirability.

In particular it seems our severe weather season will be messed up by Gumperson's Law above. Oh, and I haven't found it yet, but I know there is a law that says if you state something will happen, it won't.

Oh, let me add, (of course there is the chance you could be right), that rather than a record year it could be an early, and short year for tornadoes too. We know what is behind door number 1 & 2, but what are the numbers behind doors 3 thru 12? Weather tends to average itself out, and if you have a big burst you often then have a lull. Guess I haven't actually thought about your stats - only to joke, but if I were to guess I would say we have an active early season pattern which is early when looking at climatology. The season tends to start in this area, then move to Florida area, eventually to Tx/Ok then further north generally speaking. My fear would be a pattern change within a month that would cause all this to break down and that is typical, if it hasn't happened already.

 

[Adam Lucio]

Boy if I ever get my hands on that Murphy fellow...

I was just telling someone I was feeling pessimistic about the remainder of the year. Mother nature seems to have a way of always balancing herself out, active patters are often followed by a quiet period. I just hope its the remainder of February and the first half of March.

Last year we got robbed in April [my regions peak tornado time] with a cold airmass and rare April snowstorms. You just never know with the weather.

I use most of my time off work for chasing, so the only positive to a slow year is I will accumulate more days for an active one.

 

[Chris Hayes]

Yet another statistic. The 120mile ARK EF4 is the longest track tornado since November 23, 1992.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I agree with Shane. There is no way to do long range forecasting for tornadoes with any accuracy. The snow cover could melt this week, the Gulf could get wiped clean with one strong front, and evapotranspiration only makes a small contribution to the amount of moisture in the warm sector for any given outbreak. There is no telling what is going to happen. I'm not saying that you'll be wrong. I'm just saying that I don't think long range tornado forecasting can be done when they are so dependent on small scale details. You can do long range forecasting for temperature, precipitation, and even hurricanes, but not tornadoes IMO. I sure hope it is a big season, but I'm not going to get my hopes up.

 

[Paul Knightley]

There does seem to be at least *some* correlation between La Nina and higher count tornado years. Funnily enough I was reading this article from 1999 before seeing this thread.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/03/990301073453.htm

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

You just jinxed us. Therefore it will likely be one of the worst years ever, due to one of Murphy's Laws corollary.


Gumperson's Law

The probability of anything happening is in inverse ratio to its desirability.

In particular it seems our severe weather season will be messed up by Gumperson's Law above. Oh, and I haven't found it yet, but I know there is a law that says if you state something will happen, it won't.

Oh, let me add, (of course there is the chance you could be right), that rather than a record year it could be an early, and short year for tornadoes too. We know what is behind door number 1 & 2, but what are the numbers behind doors 3 thru 12? Weather tends to average itself out, and if you have a big burst you often then have a lull. Guess I haven't actually thought about your stats - only to joke, but if I were to guess I would say we have an active early season pattern which is early when looking at climatology. The season tends to start in this area, then move to Florida area, eventually to Tx/Ok then further north generally speaking. My fear would be a pattern change within a month that would cause all this to break down and that is typical, if it hasn't happened already.

All good points, esp the last one. What you call "Gumperson's Law" is one in which I actually believe is true. Ive seen it happen before where overall the mother nature has a way of averaging herself out, esp. with tornadoes. I really dont know what kind of year were in for but like I stated earlier, I wouldnt be surprised if this is a big year. At this time I dont think were going to see another big tornado day until early March. The pattern were in seems to suggest that. The calender says its still winter and I think thats what your going to see.
The only thing that concerns me IS the dews in the Gulf. I work an OWL shift every Friday so I get to look at current and upcoming weather on a weekly basis but I dont go in there looking for a tornado/chase day. I go in there to forecast. But when Im done I look at how the synoptic pattern has evolved since my first shift in late January. What Ive seen thus far is it appears that the 60+dews in the Gulf are there to stay. And with each system they are brought onto land and sucked north due to PGF with the approaching system. The only caveat this time of year is that systems are really fast moving so the moisture hardly has time to make it much further inland from the Gulf before being shunted eastward and back over the Gulf. But still it concerns me b/c it wouldnt take much to bring rich moisture at least 100-150mi inland from Gulf. Now I understand theres a lot more that goes into making supercells/tornadoes then just sfc moisture but from what all Ive seen, it is one of the bigger ingrediants.

 

[Gerard Jebaily]

Here is my attempt at canceling out the Jinx.....(ahem)

I dont think this season is gonna be very active at all. I think we just had our one and only decent outbreak this year. We might see a couple more naders this year, but rest assured that theres no way we are gonna have the right setups to give us an active spring chase season. I think its gonna be just like 2004. We had some big outbreaks fairly early in the season, and then fffttt. So go grab yourselves a nice kite fellas, cause thats the only weather related fun we are gonna have all spring long.