2008 May Be Record Year For Tornadoes

[Mike Krzywonski]

2008 May Be Record Year For Tornadoes:
http://news.aol.com/article/2008-may-be-record-year-for-tornadoes/209154

 

[Rob Wadsworth]

I won't dispute that it made it on the high end this year.
I still believe that the statistics show that the coming year may be equal to - or greater than - this year.

That is - if one can believe the statistics. Personally, I can take them or leave them. Statistics suggest that larger tornado outbreaks tend to occur in seven-year peak-to-peak averages; this year being the year before the main peak. We had a lot of reports from more spotters in diverse places reporting tornadoes that otherwise may not have been reported even ten years ago. This fact tends to skew past/present statistics - although it is hard to say how much - percentage-wise...

With a early cold punch this Autumn already happening, I'm willing to guess that it will be a pretty severe Winter as well. Of course, that is good for chasers; this usually signifies the coming of a eventful Spring chase season.

Wishful thinking? Maybe/Maybe not. I'm not a betting kind of guy. But if I were, I'd have to say that this Spring is going to be better than last year. There hasn't been a large outbreak of tornadoes this Autumn - yet. But Autumn has only just began. Remember - February this year had a record outbreak - that in itself is a significant trend - IMHO...

 

[PeteMcConnell]

As a chaser, I like to think optimistically that there will be as many or more tornadoes in 2009 as there were this year. My concern is the number of fatalities. A record number of fatalities this year doesn't say much for all the technology in place to warn people.

I suppose a more thorough investigation of why so many people died would reveal a more accurate account of whether it was personal errors or equipment issues.

One night while I was chasing in Nebraska, I stopped into the police station for shelter during a tornado-warned storm because it was dark/too much rain. It didn't take too long for me to realize that the lady behind the desk didn't know how to activate the sirens because a new system had been installed. Finally, 15 minutes after I was told by the NWS that a warning had been issued for the county I was in, the lady figured out how to sound the siren. This was the same night that the Greensburg, KS tornado occurred. Thankfully there was no damage in the town I was in.

 

[mike scantlin]

A record number of fatalities this year doesn't say much for all the technology in place to warn people.

I suppose a more thorough investigation of why so many people died would reveal a more accurate account of whether it was personal errors or equipment issues.

My opinion is that this was the year of the fast-moving HP supercell. There were many outbreaks, yet how many amazing tornado days were there? Sure, there were quite a few large outbreaks, but only one day that I can remember being a slow moving, visible tornado day. May 24th. All the other big tornado days were pretty lousy.

In regards to your "thorough investigation", I believe that to be a little ridiculous. Most of the fatalities happened either at night, or outside of the regular tornado "season", or both. No one is to blame. The fact of the matter is, even if there is advanced warning, a large chunk of Joe Public doesn't care until it's too late.

 

[Lanny Dean]

As a chaser, I like to think optimistically that there will be as many or more tornadoes in 2009 as there were this year. My concern is the number of fatalities. A record number of fatalities this year doesn't say much for all the technology in place to warn people.

I suppose a more thorough investigation of why so many people died would reveal a more accurate account of whether it was personal errors or equipment issues.

One night while I was chasing in Nebraska, I stopped into the police station for shelter during a tornado-warned storm because it was dark/too much rain. It didn't take too long for me to realize that the lady behind the desk didn't know how to activate the sirens because a new system had been installed. Finally, 15 minutes after I was told by the NWS that a warning had been issued for the county I was in, the lady figured out how to sound the siren. This was the same night that the Greensburg, KS tornado occurred. Thankfully there was no damage in the town I was in.

I am not sure that I understand your thought process in regards to more fatalities or a "thorough investigation" to see if there were any personal errors. Personal errors from whom?
It is simple really.... more tornadoes = a higher danger to joe public which in turn = the possibility of more fatalities. There Should be no question as to where "the blame" (if any) should go.
It is funny, every year it seems we have an event or two that leads the droves and ill informed to lash out with coments and inuendoes requiring blame to be passed because someone who may or may not have been paying attention to the weather in their daily life died.
We can only do so much in helping pass the word about possible severe weather when ultimately it is the responsibilty of joe public to take action when needed. The old adage, "you can lead a horse to water..." should no doubt, ring a bell IMO.

Makes me wonder why there is such a need to tar and feather or try to place blame when we have a situation(s) with the loss of human life due to any weather event.
Just does not make sense to me.

 

[Shane Adams]

I'd agree 2008 will be a record year for tornado reports.

 

[Gene Moore]

I'd agree 2008 will be a record year for tornado reports.

Hear, hear.....and that sums it up.

How many tornado days were there on the plains? It's tornado days that make a good storm chase season. After all how many storms can we be on in one big day? There were two, maybe three great days in Kansas, one in Nebraska, one in Texas and very good one in Oklahoma. As for Texas, most of those days were carrots that drained many chasers gas tanks and wallets. Certainly a far cry from Texas in 2007.

It does me little good to get 3-4 tornadoes in Iowa only to learn I missed 257 others.

 

[Derek Mohr]

Go figure it had to be the year that I didn't have the money to make ANY trips...well maybe the next nina year will bring more

 

[Chris Nuttall]

My concern is the number of fatalities. A record number of fatalities this year doesn't say much for all the technology in place to warn people.

From what I can discern, most of the fatalities are NOT due to a lack of a warning being issued. Really, the problem is dissemination of the warning. You can issue all the SVRs or TORs that you want, but if people don't get/don't pay attention to the information, it's not going to matter.

I haven't done an in-depth study of the statistics, but it seems most of the deaths occur: (1)with nighttime tornadoes when people are asleep, (2) with people caught in a mobile home, or (3) with people just generally caught unaware for whatever reason.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Iowa had atleast 1-2 good chase days (The Parkersburg EF5 and the Redoak monster suppercell) for tornadoes and several night time events. (Attica Iowa EF2 etc) That is not including the boyscout event. (I think June 11?) Let's also not forget the outbreaks in January and February across the great lakes and SE areas and ofcourse the day of the Atlanta tornado. I think LittleRock AR even had 1-2 days with reported tornadoes nearby. If you think about every state and not just the midwest we did see alot of tornadoes this year. Most of them are due to the winter outbreaks and a few days on the plains that had numerous tornadoes.

 

[mikegeukes]

May 2008 Tornado Days for the Midwest and Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas

Number of Tornadoes Days and the Biggest Tornado of the Day (EF-Scale)

Colorado: (1)
5-23-08 EF1

Illinois: (3)
5-25-08 EF0
5-27-08 EF0
5-30-08 EF1

Indiana: (3)
5-11-08 EF0
5-27-08 EF0
5-30-08 EF2

Iowa: (4)
5-11-08 EF2
5-25-08 EF3
5-29-08 EF1
5-30-08 EF2

Kansas: (9)
5-01-08 EF0
5-02-08 EF2
5-08-08 EF0
5-10-08 EF0
5-22-08 EF2
5-23-08 EF4
5-25-08 EF1
5-26-08 EF1
5-29-08 EF3

Michigan: (0)

Minnesota: (1)
5-25-08 EF3

Missouri: (5)
5-01-08 EF0
5-02-08 EF3
5-10-08 EF4
5-13-08 EF0
5-30-08 EF1

Nebraska: (4)
5-06-08 EF0
5-22-08 EF1
5-23-08 EF0
5-29-08 EF2

North Dakota: (2)
5-24-08 EF1
5-25-08 EF0

Ohio: (4)
5-08-08 EF0
5-11-08 EF0
5-30-08 EF0
5-31-08 EF2

Oklahoma: (7)
5-01-08 EF1
5-02-08 EF1
5-07-08 EF1
5-10-08 EF4
5-23-08 EF3
5-24-08 EF2
5-31-08 EF0

South Dakota: (2)
5-24-08 EF0
5-29-08 EF1

Texas: (9)
5-02-08 EF1
5-05-08 EF0
5-06-08 EF0
5-07-08 EF1
5-14-08 EF1
5-15-08 EF0
5-25-08 EF0
5-26-08 EF0
5-27-08 EF0

Wisconsin: (1)
5-25-08 EF0

In other news, my feet are getting bad, to walk. I need surgery
of my left foot to have a bunion fix and all five toes have hammer
toes, which need to be fix. Right foot, need surgery, to have 2 bunions fix
and all 5 hammer toes fix. I guess they break your toes to fix the hammer
toes and break the bunions also. Sounds like fun.

Mike
Lansing, Michigan
(I did live in Norman, OK and Omaha, NE for a short time.

Weather Data and Model Links
http://geukesweather.blogspot.com

 

[Chip Redmond]

I think there were many off-season tornadoes this year that helped to bring the yearly total much higher than normal. For instance, the February 5-6 outbreak had 87 tornadoes and the month of January had over 80 tornadoes.

Chip

 

[Chris Hayes]

We need a little over 200 tornadoes between the rest of this month and the end of the year to have a record year. I dont think we'll get that high unless we have some 11/10/01 type tornado outbreaks. Either way we'll have at least the 2nd busiest tornado season on record.

Previous record for tornados was a tad over 1800 back in 2004

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/torgraph-big.png