• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

2008-02-05 DISC: TX / AR / MO / IL / KY / TN / MS

Global National in Canada

Global National News is showing footage from the storms in the SE. They had SPC on talking about the warning system. Global was asking if La Nina was the cause of the storms last night. They are still showing footage, looks like they are going to spend a lot more time on this.
 
First thing I heard when I turned on CNN just now was that some areas had little or no warning about the storms or their intensity. Every station that had streaming coverage was wall to wall and the NWS did an awesome job getting the warnings out in plenty of time.

Just about everyone they interviewed said they barely had warning. Are people that oblivious as to what is going on, or was it the fast storm motions that caught them off guard?
 
First thing I heard when I turned on CNN just now was that some areas had little or no warning about the storms or their intensity. Every station that had streaming coverage was wall to wall and the NWS did an awesome job getting the warnings out in plenty of time.

Just about everyone they interviewed said they barely had warning. Are people that oblivious as to what is going on, or was it the fast storm motions that caught them off guard?

I was there and I know plenty of warning was given! The Memphis tornado, for instance, was being covered wall-to-wall via radio/TV (listening to TV stations) during the entire duration of the event.

I bet storm speeds played a huge part in the "lack of warning". I also think the targeting of storms added to the tolls. Several heavily populated areas, including a college campus, took direct hits from these storms. The tolls seem pretty scattered, but just the number of tornadoes in these areas accumulated and added quickly to all the tolls.
 
Just about everyone they interviewed said they barely had warning. Are people that oblivious as to what is going on, or was it the fast storm motions that caught them off guard?
This may seem mean and cruel, but one can't help but think "natural selection". The event was well forecasted, and from what I can tell, warnings had ample lead time. The few reports I saw mentioned deaths in mobile home parks... hmm what a surprise.
Pretty timely considering a recent paper in WAF concerning killer tornadoes:

"Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Tornado Fatalities in the United States: 1880–2005 - W. S. Ashley" and a bit from the abstract:
"Results reveal that most tornado fatalities occur in the lower–Arkansas, Tennessee, and lower–Mississippi River valleys of the southeastern United States—a region outside of traditional "tornado alley." Analysis of variables including tornado frequency, land cover, mobile home density, population density, and nocturnal tornado probabilities demonstrates that the relative maximum of fatalities in the Deep South and minimum in the Great Plains may be due to the unique juxtaposition of both physical and social vulnerabilities. The spatial distribution of these killer tornadoes suggests that the above the national average mobile home density in the Southeast may be a key reason for the fatality maximum found in this area. A demographic analysis of fatalities during the latter part of the database record illustrates that the middle aged and elderly are at a much greater risk than are younger people during these events. "


Can anyone say nail on the head??? What does one have to do to convince people in these states that late winter/early spring is "showtime" for tornadoes? Although we can certainly improve our understanding of QLCS tornadoes and improve POD/FAR for tornado warnings in general, one can't help but think the problem is more sociological rather than meteorological.
 
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I bet storm speeds played a huge part in the "lack of warning".


I bet the thing that played the most significant role in the "lack of warning" is ignorance and lack of attention. As you noted, it was extraordinarily well covered. The SPC did their job, the NWS did their job, and, from what I saw watching webcasts from Memphis, the TV personnel did their job (though some of the explanations and descriptions of various things were absolutely horrendous). As such, the "I had no warning" really meant "someone didn't come up to me personally as say 'Hey, take shelter'", I imagine. Any claim of "lack of warning" was not for unavailability of information and warning, though. As long as the NWS issues a warning, and there are not technical difficulties with the AHR/NWR system, the vast majority of people at home have warning the majority of the time. Things are difficult if you are at work, in your car, or otherwise not at home, but there are still technologies that exist to deliver warnings when issued. Personal responsibility, I say. This is starting to trend away from event-specific discussion (and, thus, away from the bounds of a DISC thread), so I'll stop there.

On a different note, I'll start a W&C thread tomorrow evening (no severe wx discussion of recent events may occur outside of DISC/REPORTS/NOW/FCST if within 48 hours of the event) to keep a running log of tornado assessments (times, locations, tracks, intensities, etc). It's worth noting that at least a couple of QRTs are being dispatched (evidenced by EF4 rating in Jackson TN and mention of QRT probability in a recent LZK PNS), so we may not know ratings for a few days on the most damaging tornadoes.
 
First thing I heard when I turned on CNN just now was that some areas had little or no warning about the storms or their intensity.

Hickory Hill - EF2 including mall.
Arlington...(was all I caught) - EF2
Lead time - 15 minutes.

Madison County (Jackson, TN) - EF4 ~170 mph
no fatalities at the time, serious injuries.

Lead time - 26 minutes

High Risk issued by the SPC the morning of. Mention of SVR by Memphis NWS the Thursday before. Outbreak mentioned by the Memphis NWS Saturday or Sunday. Numerous PDS tornado boxes up, warnings with enough time to grocery shop before taking cover (I kid) and specified with "Large and extremely dangerous tornado" or "Tornado Emergency." Live streaming coverage of tornadoes caught on the webcams. What more can you do?
 
High Risk issued by the SPC the morning of. Mention of SVR by Memphis NWS the Thursday before. Outbreak mentioned by the Memphis NWS Saturday or Sunday. Numerous PDS tornado boxes up, warnings with enough time to grocery shop before taking cover (I kid) and specified with "Large and extremely dangerous tornado" or "Tornado Emergency." Live streaming coverage of tornadoes caught on the webcams. What more can you do?

That is what I was thinking. What more can you ask for? They just had Greg Carbin on from NOAA on talking about the warning system and how it worked almost flawlessly. He talked about forecasting it 6 days in advance and how the watches were issued several hours before hand. He did mention the storm speed being of concern. I'm glad they had him on I can settle down a little bit now.
 
What more can you do?
Hit them on the head with a hammer and drag them into the basement.

Asside from that, there is nothing more that can be done. I think most of the time when you hear "We didn't have any warning", they just say that to get a sound byte. Maybe the media drags it out of them and maybe they have heard it before, so they repeat it.
There was live coverage after the Miami, FL tornado of a "witness" who claimed "it sounded like a freight train... toot toot" You know he didn't actually hear the freight train sound. He has just heard that statement, so it seemed appropriate. Based on his imitation of the sound, it was obvious that he didn't know what that sound was.
 
If anyone missed it...the NWS in Little Rock has released preliminary information here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LZK/PNSLZK

From the survey of the EF3 in Van Buren County: THERE WERE TWO INSTANCES WHERE PEOPLE WERE LOOKING FOR THEIR VEHICLES. THE VEHICLES WERE THROWN FOR A DISTANCE AND COULD NOT BE FOUND.

I'm not sure I've seen that in a report before.
 
This has been a very rough day.

My home is 2.5 miles south of the damage path through Izard Co., AR. I live about 3 miles south of Franklin. The town of Zion (pop. 150 or so) is about 5 miles from my house, and sustained very heavy damage to at least 3/4 of the buildings in town. There was one fatality confirmed here.

I caught a glimpse of the tornado between lightning flashes last evening at around 6:30. I really could not believe what I was seeing at the time; it was about an hour later when I heard from a neighbor that his brother's house had (and I quote) "just been blown away " that the reality of what I had seen in that instant set in.

When I saw the tornado it was about 2 miles south of where my husband and I had sought shelter at our neighbor's. (We don't have a shelter at our house. My chase day was called off as soon as the sun set. I do not have mobile internet yet, and I was not about to go out after this storm on our roads after dark. I might be dead if I had.) At the time I glimpsed the tornado, it had a large stove-pipe condensation funnel 3/4 of the way to the ground, with what I now realize were "wedge characteristics" on the sides. (Basically, imagine a suspended wedge with a fat stovepipe coming out the bottom.) The cloud base was extremely low, and I could hear the roar. (It was not as loud as it was on 9/22/06 when the rotating wall cloud came over-top of us at the exact same location, however, since it was farther away this time.)

After learning of the damage so close to our house, my husband and I drove a couple of miles up our road to see whether there was anything we could do to help. Our progress was stopped when we encountered these trees, which were basically stuffed up the road for 100 yards. These are large pines and cedars, and have since been cleared, with the help of special machinery:

25roadblockcr.jpg


The above photo was taken this morning at about 8:00. I had to find another route to Zion because of the trees blocking the road. When I got there, it was a difficult scene.

Our friends own a blueberry farm about a mile and a half outside of Zion, and we were especially concerned about their safety. After mapping the likely damage path on our DeLorme software, it appeared that the tornado would have been very close to their farm. Their farm sits in a valley on Piney Creek, and was completely surrounded by large pines (hence the name). Their house was not visible from the road, and their farm was very secluded once in the blueberry field; the perimeter of their property was surrounded by very large, stately pines and hardwoods. Upon entering this valley, the road takes a wide turn to the left (if driving north). When I rounded this curve today, I could not believe my eyes, even after seeing the devestation in Zion.

The first thing I saw was the remains of our friends farm, fully exposed and scattered across a quarter-mile of what is now virtually treeless fields. Even from a mile away, I could tell that their place had sustained heavy damage, and I feared for their safety if they had been inside. Their house is a nice modular home and sat on a block foundation. They had many outbuildings for their business; all of this was now indistinguishable from a few of their neighbor's homes debris and the debris from a large chicken barn about 1/4 mile from their berry farm.

25berrybarncr.jpg

This was once their blueberry business "barn." It housed equipment, and was the retail center during picking season.

25blueberryfriendscarcr.jpg

Their vehicle; and I didn't blot out the license plate -- that's mud spray.

25offfoundationblueberryfriendshous.jpg

Their house. It was rocked about 5 feet completely off the foundation and is obviously a total loss.

Just north of their place (about a half-mile) was a very large broiler chicken opperation. This was about 1,000 yards total of chicken barns, along with a newly-built well constructed home. Here is what is left; the house sat at the base of the small hill on the right-hand side of this photo:

25severedamagepastberryfarmcr.jpg


The damage through this valley is approaching a mile-wide. I have an 18-35mm lens, and from a mile back, I could not capture the entire damage swath.

Also (and I did not take photos of this), a very large cattle opperation south of Melbourne, AR, near Sage, was hit hard. About 150 cattle were killed. There are dead cows all over the place, with reports of some of them being carried long distances. The damage in this area is about 1/3 mile - 1/2 mile wide. The damage the whole way along, where I saw, is anywhere from 1/4 mile to approaching 1 mile wide.


When I got home this afternoon, I discovered large pieces of yellow insullation hanging from a large oak tree in our back yard. I also found several large clumps of yellow (and pink) insullation in the pastures at our neighbors' ranch (where we had sought shelter). I have really not looked around much, but I suspect I could find other debris items as well.

(Of note: Highland, AR, is where we do our shopping. As you know, this area was also hit very hard; the commercial district of this city was virtually wiped out. I have not ventured to this area yet, so I do not have any additional photos. It's about 17 miles from home, and as I understand, the damage is between 1/2 - 1 mile wide also.)

EDIT: I failed to mention that there was at least one fatality in Zion and a number of injuries, some serious.
EDIT: I thought I should post this in the discussion because I wasn't actually chasing at the time; I was under the impression that REPORTS was only for actual chase reports. If I should have posted it in REPORTS, could a mod please move it (sorry for the hassle).
 
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MODS: please move this as you see fit

If anyone can find video of the Memphis tornado (WREG broadcast from tower cam preferably) that I can embed via code or URL into myspace/facebook/etc..., please post.
 
On the "we had no warning" issue - I did see some news reports last night and this morning where people in the impacted areas were asked about warnings, and they said the warnings were very good. In fact, that was the case on all the coverage I saw where the issue of warnings came up. I believe some of these folks were local government officials and/or EM folks, but everyone I heard asked about the warnings said there were timely warnings that saved a lot of lives. So I do not think the media is being entirely negative about this, though I understand sometimes it is hard to resist giving air time to the folks who claim "we had no warning."
 
Repeating what others have said...... I think the SPC and the NWS deserve a big pat on the back for their performance. They did an excellent job with such a significant event with fast moving tornadoes. Our local office (Huntsville, AL) provided excellent warning before the Lawrence Co., AL EF-3 and the Jackson Co., AL EF-4 (preliminary). Unfortunately, these moved thru in the early morning, leading to 4 fatalities.

Adding to the "we had no warning" debate......... I know most of Lawrence Co. in Alabama has no tornado warning sirens (where 3 died with the tornado just after 3 AM). Unfortunately, many people still don't have a a weather radio, or some other way of receiving tornado warning information (cell phone, etc).
 
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