2008-02-05 DISC: TX / AR / MO / IL / KY / TN / MS

[Brian Emfinger]

Here is a little map I just put together to show the path the storm/tornado(s) took. The tornado started off in elevations of less than 500ft but past Atkins it went into the mountains and it went through extremely mountainous terrain as high as around 2000ft. The NWS Little Rock so far still thinks this tornado as being continuously on the ground. An air survey will be done tomorrow so they will know for sure then. BTW, I just want to say that John Robinson and the rest of the NWS LZK office are simply outstanding with absolutely everything from the warnings to the aftermath.

NWS LZK has a lot more pictures on their site now including this one of a Jeep in a tree at Zion (Izard County)

Also, if anyone missed the story about the 18 month old being found in a field after being mistaken for a doll (his mother died in the tornado)...Here it is:

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080207/D8ULP2CG0.html

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

We drove up to Clinton about an hour after the tornado hit on the 5th while on our way back to Norman. Its pretty rough country from the interstate to Clinton, though the tornado would have likely still been quite visible from the highway coming from the south. There are lots of tall trees in this region, a few of which were blocking some of the side roads we drove down. I would have loved to see video of that tornado going up and down the hills near there.

 

[Bill Hark]

Here is an interesting amateur video from someone who had a close encounter with a spinup in Southhaven, MS just south of Memphis.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceh_p6sOCWw

This is the beginning of the tornado that tracked south and east of Memphis.

Bill Hark

 

[Chris Hayes]

Has anyone heard about what the death toll is? I've been trying to find out but I'm seeing varying numbers. Wiki is saying it's up to 59, but I havent seen that anywhere. Wiki also says 47 tornados confirmed so far.

 

[Brandon Smith]

Here is an interesting amateur video from someone who had a close encounter with a spinup in Southhaven, MS just south of Memphis.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceh_p6sOCWw

This is the beginning of the tornado that tracked south and east of Memphis.

Bill Hark

Typing "Southhaven tornado" into Youtube brings up a couple other interesting videos of the event. The first one looks like it's taken from a second story bedroom and has no sound with it. The tornado can be seen forming in the distance. The second video is very ominous. A family tapes the tornado passing just outside their neighborhood. Although you know the tornado is there, you cannot see the cloud base or the tornado in the distance. Transformers around them are blowing up as the sirens start up halfway through.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLOPenXZijM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMYXBmSSdYI

 

[Chad Cowan]

Video of Jackson, TN tornado posted by Youtube user "rforry":

 

[Dave Gallaher]

The Lawrence County, AL storm has been upgraded to EF-4. Photo of two large-diameter trees snapped just above ground level is pretty dramatic. This and others are posted at the NWS survey site http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hun/ along with radar loops of both Lawrence and Jackson County EF-4s.

 

[Karen Politte]

Hey Brian,

That's a neat elevation map with the tornado track/s overlaid. Thanks for that. You sure don't see that sort of terrain lying under a tornado's track very often in the Plains - I'll second the notion that it would have been some sight to have seen this storm in daylight as it mowed through the woods and over hills and down valleys.

I had the pleasure of meeting with John Robinson et. al. during an AMS meeting the week before this event, and I'll also second that the NWS LZK and crew from NWS LZK are really an amazing team and - not only did they cover the warnings masterfully during Tuesday's dire situation - but they have had people out in the field SINCE Tuesday making sure that these tornadoes go down in the records accurately - which is a huge deal to anybody who cares about what we collectively care about. Bravo guys!

Incidentally - NWS LZK state that a fly-over of the Atkins/Clinton tornado track has been scheduled with the Civial Air Patrol for today (Feb. 8th) to help determine if it was a tornado family or if the damage was caused by one tornado with a 120-mile long track, and that there will indeed be a QRT on the scene during the day to assess the damage further. One wonders if Mr. Marshall is skulking amidst the piney woods somewhere north of here.......hope he's brought his thermals......it's 28oF out there right now. I also wonder if an EF4 will be rearing it's ugly head out of all this mess. I guess time will tell.

KL

 

[Terry Tyler]

a freind of mine in memphis was up there when all that stuff was goin down...

i told him to grab a couple shots of the storm, but he looks to be on a different side of the storm...this is the picture he took...

now, i told him there wasnt anything too outstanding about this picture, and if there was a tornado possible in this picture, it wouldent be visible because of his vantage point, and if there was something...it would be that little lowering behind the trees...you can see its obscured by the precip...

now, i showed him someone elses pictures of the same storm, but from a different angle apparently SE of him...now, im not too sure about this picture, cause the date/time says 1/13/07...but, they both look pretty similar...also, since only 1 wind report was recieved in southern, TX on 1-13-07, im assuming that the date might not have been set right...i found it on the WREG website too, saying it was from the "memphis storms" so im positive its the same storm...

well, i told him to check out the mall...and see what all happened over there, and he went down there...and he took a couple pictures...

take a look!

thats a big daddys pawnshop in that strip-mall area...and here are a couple trees tore up...

some roof damage and whatnot...

- credit sam slay for these photos...

 

[Randy Bowers]

This may seem mean and cruel, but one can't help but think "natural selection". The event was well forecasted, and from what I can tell, warnings had ample lead time. The few reports I saw mentioned deaths in mobile home parks... hmm what a surprise.

Can anyone say nail on the head??? What does one have to do to convince people in these states that late winter/early spring is "showtime" for tornadoes?

I guess it's easy to judge when you have absolutely no clue what you are talking about. For those of us that have any amount of sense whatsoever, it's self-explanatory. For others, I'll spell it out for you. In many cases, survival was not possible without being underground. If you would like for me to draw you a picture or otherwise illustrate, I'll be more than happy to. But, I think the above pictures do a well enough job of that.

I’m not saying that ignorance wasn’t a factor, but was certainly not the cause for the large number of deaths.

Sincerely,
One dumb southerner that hopefully will someday learn how to pull my head out of my posterior, buy some shoes, and get my teeth fixed. Maybe I'll eventually move up to a double wide from my single wide, too.

 

[Karen Politte]

There's no point in finger-pointing after an event that has killed so many people, and that especially goes for when you're pointing the finger at the victims......even if they had had a few too many whiskeys before the NWR went off.

What I think we are failing to realize is that - outside of the chaser/weather enthusiast community - weather is really just a very, very small portion of every other person's life. It's the small sliver in the piechart of "What's Important" that never gets seen. It's something that never even warrants consideration unless it is interfering with social events. People are busy with their children, wallpapering the spare bedroom, working all hours, putting new tires on their cars and going canoeing. As much as a chaser's blood spurts out of their ears every time we see a local tornado victim who cries about how little time they had to prepare - we must bear in mind that this person is not a chaser and has absolutely no use for an internet connection in meteorological terms. They wouldn't know 250kts of GTG shear if it came up and smacked them in the arse, and a flying eagle is their Nation's proud symbol - not something to be scared of.

There is absolutely no way you can warn everybody and there is absolutely no way that you can make sure that everybody realizes the gravity of the situation. Unless the tornado is affecting their property at the time the warning comes out, most "normal" people will wait and see if the storms comes towards them......with probably only a passing thought about which room is their interior room, or the fact that they have no basement.

It is true that the Nov-Dec-Jan-Feb timeframe can be quite active tornado-wise for the southern U.S. states - but yet again to "normal" people this really doesn't concern them. They are not like us. They are not sitting at their computers every day looking at the GFS progs to see if the next Big One for Arkansas is on it's way.

Yet another factor in all of this is the fact that these storms were no slouches. They were travelling at 60mph or faster, and they contained extremely voilent tornadoes. We have all seen huge, intense shear couplets with hundreds of storms only to find out that it barely produced. Why this is, I don't know. It's one of the mysteries of tornadogenesis. On Tuesday, however, these storms all produced in a big way and had large, fast-moving, violent torndoes associated with them. What's more - Arkansas (and I'm sure states further east) have far more spread-out populations than the Plains states. Rather than one huge center of 1million+ people, Arkansas' population is very evenly distributed throughout regional cities and towns of 5, 10, 20 and 30,000 people. Consequently - when an event like Tuesday's happens and a storm produces a significant EF3 or EF4 tornado - that tornado has a far greater chance of mowing through populated areas, rather than churning harmlessly through Prairie such as in Oklahoma or Kansas.

Meanwhile, I await the QRT's findings with anticipation on the storms that completely destroyed several of my colleague's family's homes.

KL

 

[Randy Bowers]

I couldn't agree more, Karen. That is certainly an issue—the lack of awareness, and should be a great concern to all meteorologists. I think, for the most part, it is. Although, it seems the importance of good communication and the value of outreach is underestimated by a handful of meteorologists. There’s a lot of work for meteorologists to do, not just in the science itself. The perception of warnings is a problem—not just in the south, but in the plains and other tornado-prone areas as well.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The problem is despite how bad outbreaks like this can be, the reality is that the chance of getting hit by a tornado for any one person is so slim as to be negligible. Unfortunately, most people realize that and it affects their response. It's like worrying about a piece of an airplane falling off and hitting you in the head. No one is going to carry a helmet around to protect against that threat, they'll just take their chances.

This isn't to say that people shouldn't be responsible enough to heed the plethora of watches and warnings put out well in advance, but still, the "it's not going to happen to me" mentality will always be there. I think it's a matter of people getting the warnings but not heeding them. They accept the risk of getting hit because it is so slim, and therefore don't take action. Most people will never see a tornado in their lifetime, let alone get hit by one.

 

[Brian Emfinger]

What's more - Arkansas (and I'm sure states further east) have far more spread-out populations than the Plains states. Rather than one huge center of 1million+ people, Arkansas' population is very evenly distributed throughout regional cities and towns of 5, 10, 20 and 30,000 people. Consequently - when an event like Tuesday's happens and a storm produces a significant EF3 or EF4 tornado - that tornado has a far greater chance of mowing through populated areas, rather than churning harmlessly through Prairie such as in Oklahoma or Kansas.

Thats an outstanding point of which I hadn't even thought. Arkansas and states east of plains doesn't have a large population and your exactly right about the distribution. You can't go too far in Arkansas (even in the most rugged areas) without finding a community or at least a few houses. This definitely goes into (along with terrain and night time storms) why the lower ms valley can have such high death totals.

 

[Randy Bowers]

...but still, the "it's not going to happen to me" mentality will always be there [...] They accept the risk of getting hit because it is so slim, and therefore don't take action.

I agree with that, and I really don't know what can be done to change that mentality.

The risk that any one of us would be killed in an auto accident is slim as well. But most of us take precautions such as wearing our seat belt and minimizing any distractions. So, why would people not take similar precautions for tornado events (i.e. buying a weather radio)?

 

[Heidi Farrar]

Karen, thank you. That was beautifully written. I thought I would have something to add, but I kept reading and you pretty much covered it.

This was the cover of The Batesville Daily Guard yesterday. I assume it's okay to post this photo, since credit is given. This is a captured video still taken by Chris Williams from Lunerburg, AR, which is sw of Sage & Zion, at 6:20 Tuesday. I believe he was about 5 miles from the tornado when he got his video (KAIT-8 Jonesboro is attempting to track down the video today -- if/when they do, I am sure it will be available online). I was about 2 miles away when I saw it; at that time it had more of a stove-pipe look to the base, with the wedge shape on the sides. Judging by the damage at the place where I saw it, I think it may have been lifting slightly at that time. The damage at this area was through heavy forest, and the tops are now sheared out of the trees for a good ways, and probably 1/4 mile wide.

EDIT: I forgot to say that this was captured during a lightning flash; he had back-lighting at the time, and there was more daylight at 6:20 than when I saw it at around 6:35.

I hope it is okay to say this, too, but ST member Jeff Smith has organized a relief effort through his church in the Tulsa area. They're planning to be here tomorrow around lunch time. I cannot express how this affects me on a personal level. This community really needs the help.

 

[Terry Tyler]

One dumb southerner that hopefully will someday learn how to pull my head out of my posterior, buy some shoes, and get my teeth fixed. Maybe I'll eventually move up to a double wide from my single wide, too.

lol, you guys are messed up...

you actually want to blame those people for being killed, and then have the balls to call them ignorant?

take a look at those homes...it doesnt matter who the hell you are...you would not be able to survive the storm...no matter what your education, socio-economic status or whatever...

i think its rude, and unethical to make remarks like "natural seletion" against people who have lost their entire lives and all their property...making fun of southerners and keeping that "ignorant white trash hillybilly" attitude is disrespectful and unintelligent...

i just cant believe you have the nuts to come out and make fun of a major national tragedy like that...some balls...

 

[Dennis Sherrod]

This may seem mean and cruel, but one can't help but think "natural selection". The event was well forecasted, and from what I can tell, warnings had ample lead time. The few reports I saw mentioned deaths in mobile home parks... hmm what a surprise.
Pretty timely considering a recent paper in WAF concerning killer tornadoes:

Karen,
Your thoughts on this are much more reasonable and I believe accurate than a flawed concept of evolution pertaining to "natural selection." Using that thought process, the entire picture could be reversed and these people affected by a disaster could say that we have not learned over the years to even get out of the weather. As in: Taking pictures and video of standing out in storms in high winds, chasing storms, taking certain risks that may lead to possible injury or death just to fed our desires, fulfill some of our job requirements, or to enhance the science of weather.
Everyone's focus and understanding should be that natural disasters will always occur. Sadly, deaths and injuries inevitably will happen given the degree of the intensity of storms and the unfinished science of studying about these types of weather phenomena. As in evidenced in countless photos, videos, and other verified documentation, natural disaster deaths and injuries occur regardless of the type of structure or locale in which one lives.
We should be focused on helping the people affected, whether through our storm documentations, education, or by any other worthwhile means of assistance.
We do not need to be throwing stones at people because of their social or economic class and status that may lead one to "believe" is the cause of death and injuries.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Everyone take a deep breath! Some are starting to get defensive, and it's important to keep personal attacks and/or snarks out of this forum. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, but throwing insults at another member will be grounds for an infraction.

I think most of what some have been saying is that it's likely that SOME of those who died were not following prudent safety procedures. Unless anyone wants to argue that every single person who died did so while hunkered down in a bath tub, covered by a mattress, in a bathroom located near the center of the house, then I think we can all agree that it's likely that some people did not heed the warning. I don't think anyone in here has thus far said that all deaths were "stupid people". Yes, I'm sure many folks took shelter and followed safety procedures that are prudent when a tornado is likely coming your way, but I certainly think that some people took the "it won't happen to me" and didn't do anything.

Not all of these were EF5s that obliterated every single thing above the ground. Frankly, we don't know enough about where, when, and how the all the deaths occurred to say much one way or the other right now. Unfortunately, you can't interview those who died, so there's not much of a way to figure out what they were thinking. Again, I'm sure many did hunker down as recommended by the NWS (and common sense), but I don't think it's "stupid" to assume that some people did not. Just because a few pics show very significant damage, does that mean that the deaths that occurred by that tornado occurred in that same spot those pics were taken? Do you know that the deaths occurred right where the pictures were taken? Perhaps a death occurred on the periphery of the tornado, when it was considerably weaker. Again, not saying this was the case, but we just don't know enough about ALL of the deaths to know for sure.

Finally, who said anything about "hillbilly" ignorant southerners? The same "it won't happen to me" mentality (not entirely unreasonable, given the extremely small risk of ever being hit by a tornado!) is likely shared by many households in this country. I haven't read anything yet that attributes this attitude exclusively to "southerners".

 

[Heidi Farrar]

I would not be surprised to see an EF-5 rating for the Van Buren Co., AR tornado, that is some incredbile damage, i.e., the Jeep or whatever it was.

Just for the record, the Jeep is in Zion, in Izard Co. I haven't seen that one yet. There are a few side roads I won't even go down because it looks so bad. It does seem that things are leaning in the direction of EF-5 in Clinton, though, which is Van Buren Co. There are some areas outside of Zion that I have seen that could be EF-4. It will be very interesting to see what the LZK crew determines.

 

[Randy Bowers]

Finally, who said anything about "hillbilly" ignorant southerners? The same "it won't happen to me" mentality (not entirely unreasonable, given the extremely small risk of ever being hit by a tornado!) is likely shared by many households in this country. I haven't read anything yet that attributes this attitude exclusively to "southerners".

Perhaps that wasn't stated, but it was implied, I felt. Nevertheless, to say that people react differently in the south than in other tornado-prone areas may be true to some degree, but there are many other factors to consider. From experience I can say that people in Tennessee were VERY aware of what was to come this past Tuesday. Awareness is not the issue here. Furthermore, I've seen from previous high-end events (5/18/95, 4/16/98, 11/15/05, 4/7/06) that people in the south do indeed pay attention and take it very seriously--as seriously as anyone in Oklahoma would take it.

 

[Dennis Sherrod]

Hey Guys. This includes myself. We need to stop this mess before we let the uneducated and bigoted mentality of one person get us all in trouble on the forum. The warning need to be issued to the originating party who took the jab at a "perceived class" of people and that will hopefully stop his tirades against someone else.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Hey Guys. This includes myself. We need to stop this mess before we let the uneducated and bigoted mentality of one person get us all in trouble on the forum. The warning need to be issued to the originating party who took the jab at a "perceived class" of people and that will hopefully stop his tirades against someone else.

I think there is some misunderstanding of Aaron Kennedy's post here. He quoted a published article, and he mentions that many of the deaths may be caused more by sociological issues than meteorological issues. As was noted, this event was forecast almost as well as it could have been (mentioned on Day 4-8 outlook, MDT risk on Day 2, HIGH risk on Day 1, PDS tornado watches out hours ahead of time, tornado warnings lead time was very good in most cases, etc). So, from a meteorological and warning system standpoint, the event was handled almost as well as it could have been. So, when it's well known that a tornado outbreak is likely (and occurring), how do we reduce fatalities in outbreaks like this one? If the warnings are out, if the TV stations are going wall-to-wall, how else do you tell people to heed the warning? Walker Ashley's article addresses such social factors as the relatively high density of mobile homes as a possible reason for the relatively high death count in similar outbreaks. Stats are stats, and I don't think many in here would argue that mobile homes are safer than most permanent homes. Statistically, deaths are much more likely in mobile homes than in permanent structures. In addition, statistics show that tornado outbreaks are more likely to occur after dark in the southern US, which means that people may need to take additional steps to ensure that they can receive warnings when they may be asleep.

More publications such as that by W. Ashley are needed to help understand the casualties that occur in various parts of the country in order to formulate ways to reduce such deaths.

 

[Perry Williams]

This may seem mean and cruel, but one can't help but think "natural selection". The event was well forecasted, and from what I can tell, warnings had ample lead time. The few reports I saw mentioned deaths in mobile home parks... hmm what a surprise.

Let's wait and see what the circumstances of the tornado victims were and final intensity of the tornadoes before automatically assuming the large death toll is due solely to mobile homes being struck. These tornadoes were very intense and moving over 60 mph in some cases; the deadliest tornadoes in Tennessee and both Alabama killers occurred well after dark. In addition, this outbreak occurred on an evening when many residents of the affected areas were tuned to national cable networks watching coverage of the Super Tuesday primaries; many were thinking only about politics......not the rapidly approaching deadly storms. IMHO if these tornadoes had occurred on Monday or Wednesday evening and night, the death toll would have been considerably less.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

IMHO if these tornadoes had occurred on Monday or Wednesday evening and night, the death toll would have been considerably less.

Fantastic point that I don't think is being considered by many (myself included).I didn't think about the fact that many people were probably watching cable news networks that night either. As you noted, it would have been interesting to have seen the number of casualties if the outbreak had occurred the day before or the day after Super Tuesday. Even this, though, continues to harken on the need for people to own weather radios! In many rural areas, I can only assume that outdoor warning sirens are not common, which further yet supports the necessity of a weather radio (and, possibly, more reverse 911 systems).

Do you (or other members) know how some of the local TV stations handled the severe weather risk the day before? I wonder if many of them mentioned it on their nightly news. I would certainly hope it would have been mentioned as a "pay attn to the weather!" day given the MDT risk in place on the Day 2 outlook. I watched CNN and MSNBC most of the Tuesday evening and night, but they didn't start to give much (if any) attn to the outbreak until ~10 pm.