2004-09-03 FCST: Ivan (Atlantic)

[David Draun]

That sounds about right. Water would follow the path of least resistance, which would take it right through flooded areas. The lake, the river, and storm surge all pooling (no pun intended) together in NO really could mess stuff up.

 

[mikegeukes]

Some links to Storm Surge Information along the
Alabama-Mississippi Coast

Hurricane Surge Maps for the Alabama Gulf Coast
http://www.sam.usace.army.mil/stormmap/surgeinfo.htm

Mobile District's Hurricane Evacuation Study Program
http://www.sam.usace.army.mil/hesdata/index.htm

Mississippi Hurricane Evacuation Study
http://www.sam.usace.army.mil/hesdata/Miss...sreportpage.htm

Surge Maps
http://www.sam.usace.army.mil/hesdata/Miss.../msMapspage.htm

Tides Online: Storm Surge Mode
http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/monitor.html

Mike

 

[mikegeukes]

Someone mention about the levees in New Orleans

US Corps of Engineers: New Orleans District
Hurricane & Emergency Information
http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/pao/response/index.asp

Hurricane Levee Maps: New Orleans
http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/pao/response/amaps.asp

Huriricane Protection Projects: New Orleans
http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/pao/response....asp?prj=lkpon1

Mike

 

[B Ozanne]

I may be wrong but I see it differently. If the ocean floods into NO and the lake floods into the downtown area, there will be one huge torrent of water from the flooding Mississippi and lake. The river will continue to make it's way to the ocean via the flooded areas.

I stand by my filthy lake theory. The surge/river would top the levee a few feet at a time. Right next to the levee it would rush in, but the city would slowly flood as the pumps could not keep up with the ocean. In New Orleans my guess is that the old Miss barely flows at all, maybe just a few knots, not a roaring mountain river. After the storm the surge receeds and the river lowers leaving water in New Orleans to the top of the levees. The pumps are down because they were inundated and the water trickles out the storm drains by gravity. At -7 feet, gravity would only empty New Orleans until the water levels equalized with the lake/river. The pumps would be needed to pump out the last 7 feet of water.

This is all moot as New Orleans is "low and dry" at this time.

 

[Brett Adair]

Is Ivan dead? Not yet. The remnants of Ivan are currently moving across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico once again. The area is favored for development and this system could become tropical storm Ivan once again later on today into tomorrow. What a wild tropical system!

 

[Carrie Halliday]

I posted that on Weather and Chasing Brett. But was told it would be Matthew if it redevelops in the Gulf. I think it should still be Ivan the Terrible.

 

[David Wolfson]

Ivan is officially back -- progged to hit near Houston late tomorrow as a tropical storm. Geez. Drive a stake in him, already!

 

[Carrie Halliday]

Parts of the coastline near Galveston is already flooding from high tides. 93rd St in Galveston underwater all day today and parts of Seabrook. Local met thinks he may stall on us, developing story as I type this. Is going to track NE of me at current track and already saying 5-10 inches of rain, unless he does indeed stall. :shock:
Too many shell shocked over Allison, waiting for the parallels to start on the TV locally.

 

[Carrie Halliday]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

I find it kind of funny that the mets at NHC would verbally duke it out (how I perceive "animated") over what to name this. There has to be a weather joke in there somewhere.

 

[David Draun]

This moisture from Ivan Reborn, could develop some healthy rain along the slow moving frontal boundary through the middle of the nation. Anyone else think that's possible?

 

[Carrie Halliday]

Question: What is the tornado threat with this? Especially on Fri/Sat with the cold front coming in?
It was mentioned on the local news that Ivan may make a left turn inland due to the cold front. Will this intersecting of the tropical and cold front make me at a higher risk? If so, am ready to chase tomorrow and Saturday!