Joel Wright
EF5
Well, the new 00z GFS continues it's trend towards developing a moderately strong storm system for the Tue-Wed timeframe for the midwest/Great Lakes area. After one or two other surface cyclones pass further north on monday, another wave will develop along the cold front and track northeast. Looks like this storm will have the best upper support, and since it's the last of the storms in this series, will have the best moisture supply as well.
The latest GFS run would paint a band of heavy snow from MO up through much of IL into WI and possibly MI later tuesday into wednesday. The trend has been to push the track further northwest with each run though, so this may change. Later models may continue this trend, or forecast a weaker/more progressive solution. My gut feeling is that the GFS is on the right track with a slower/stronger storm that lays down some heavy snow. Since this last wave is only about 60-78hrs out, the trend to the northwest should slow on future runs.
Areas from MO up through eastern IA, much of IL, possibly parts of IN, southeast WI, and parts of lower MI should watch this one!
The latest GFS run would paint a band of heavy snow from MO up through much of IL into WI and possibly MI later tuesday into wednesday. The trend has been to push the track further northwest with each run though, so this may change. Later models may continue this trend, or forecast a weaker/more progressive solution. My gut feeling is that the GFS is on the right track with a slower/stronger storm that lays down some heavy snow. Since this last wave is only about 60-78hrs out, the trend to the northwest should slow on future runs.
Areas from MO up through eastern IA, much of IL, possibly parts of IN, southeast WI, and parts of lower MI should watch this one!