• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

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    Sincerely, Jeff D.

2/5/08-2/6/08 WINTER STORM FCST: MO,IA,IL,KY,IN,WI,MI,OH

Joined
Feb 19, 2004
Messages
1,375
Location
Erie IL
Well, the new 00z GFS continues it's trend towards developing a moderately strong storm system for the Tue-Wed timeframe for the midwest/Great Lakes area. After one or two other surface cyclones pass further north on monday, another wave will develop along the cold front and track northeast. Looks like this storm will have the best upper support, and since it's the last of the storms in this series, will have the best moisture supply as well.

The latest GFS run would paint a band of heavy snow from MO up through much of IL into WI and possibly MI later tuesday into wednesday. The trend has been to push the track further northwest with each run though, so this may change. Later models may continue this trend, or forecast a weaker/more progressive solution. My gut feeling is that the GFS is on the right track with a slower/stronger storm that lays down some heavy snow. Since this last wave is only about 60-78hrs out, the trend to the northwest should slow on future runs.

Areas from MO up through eastern IA, much of IL, possibly parts of IN, southeast WI, and parts of lower MI should watch this one!
 
Not much change on the 12z run. GFS still remains the most bullish model for snowfall. The NAM looks too progressive and weak (as usual), so I'd throw that out. It's midnight run looked more on the ball than this last one. The Canadian lines up pretty well with the GFS. It deeepens the surface low to 992 over western IN by early tuesday evening.

Cold air is initially lacking, but as the storm strengthens it'll pull more cold air into it. Also thickness values fall off pretty nicely during the day on tuesday.

So all in all, it still looks like there could be a band of at least moderate, if not heavy accumluating snowfall from MO to MI tuesday-wednesday...
 
00z models continue the trend towards a decent snowstorm for much of the midwest tue-wed. Even the NAM is showing signs of trending that way now. GFS/GEM/UKMET all favor a fairly strong surface low deepening as it heads northeast through IN tuesday night. This storm isn't particularly fast moving either, so snowfall totals may be rather impressive for those who get under the heaviest band. Right now it's still looking like MO to lower MI, clipping the east half of IA, the northwest half of IL, and southeast WI.

This thing will have a very high amount of moisture to work with, so this one may lay down up to a foot for somebody...
 
I will second that... As Joel Mentioned heaviest axis looks like EAX to Dubuque, IA to just northwest of LOT... Plentiful moisture.. Interested to see HPC's placement tommorow.. Models are still slighly shaky with the path.. GFS still likes the Northward route...
 
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12z models have arrived with a few subtle changes. The biggest change was the NAM finally catching on and painting some heavy snow in the midwest later tomorrow and tomorrow night. It's still a bit too far east, but it's trending in the right direction. The GFS/Canadian are pretty similar. They both drop some heavy snow (possibly on the order of 10"+) from about the NW half of MO, up through east IA, the northwest 1/3 of IL, the southeast portions of WI, and eventually into lower MI.

This system is in no hurry to exit any one area real fast, so a relatively long duration snow event seems likely. This would be appear to be a 15-18hr event. The GFS has been advertising two main waves of snow with this storm. The first one may move through and drop several inches of snow, then a slight downturn in snowfall intensity, and then another batch of heavy snow as the main upper support finally lifts out late tuesday night. This is when the surface low really begins to deepen, and ramp up the winds accordingly as well.

As far as winds, they look sort of marginal. Maybe some gusts over 30mph, but nothing blizzardlike the way it appears at this time. The best chance at seeing the highest winds will likely be on wednesday over towards MI after the storm is deeper.
 
Well this thread is amazingly quiet lol. 00z models rolling in with some rather large (and somewhat scary) snowfall totals. Looks like a band of a foot or more of snow is in the offing from northern MO, through eastern IA, northern IL, southern WI, and over towards MI. Basically, the overall placement of the heavy snowband hasn't changed much over the last few days. However, each model run seems to add a bit more QPF. This is due to the models getting a better hold on just how much moisture is available, and the rather slow speed of movement this storm will have. Some areas will have 18+ solid hours of snow. I wouldn't be surprised to see some 14-18" totals somewhere in that heavy band. Damn near impossible to define who that could be at this point.
 
I just wonder if the models are over doing the amounts..I mean anything over a foot is a HUGE event here but last night we ended up with almost 5" in a few hours.. however lately we have had more then the predicited amounts it seems with the exception of the 'Blizzard forecast'. Looks like a band of heavy snow will set up for sure and the track has been consistant..MKX WFO already went with Warnings so obviously confidence is high.. I thought about 6-7 inches here but we'll see..its a rare event for RFD to get over 10" based on history.
I also am envious of the you guys in Central IL warm temps with a line of pretty strong thunderstorms..even a small bow shape echo briefly in a cell SW of ILX.. although its only early Feb..its encouraging ;) We had a brief thunderstorm here today though which really was nice to hear again..
 
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I also am envious of the you guys in Central IL warm temps with a line of pretty strong thunderstorms..even a small bow shape echo briefly in a cell SW of ILX.. although its only early Feb..its encouraging ;) We had a brief thunderstorm here today though which really was nice to hear again..

I know this isn't exactly related to the winter storm (sorry) but I had to comment - Don't be envious...we can't see the storms even if we wanted to because it's so foggy! Some of the thickest fog I've ever seen. Earlier today Bloomington reported 0.06 miles visibility. Peoria had 0.15 for most of the day.

ILX saying "several" inches here, but earlier models showed at least 7" at one point.
 
I know this isn't exactly related to the winter storm (sorry) but I had to comment - Don't be envious...we can't see the storms even if we wanted to because it's so foggy! Some of the thickest fog I've ever seen. Earlier today Bloomington reported 0.06 miles visibility. Peoria had 0.15 for most of the day.

ILX saying "several" inches here, but earlier models showed at least 7" at one point.


LOL..yeah the fog could put a damper on things esp from a distance..Some impressive radar returns last night form a cell north of ST. Louis too..
Winter-wise..
Well looks like a more dynamic picture then previously thought by myself with possible thundersnow..so I upped it say 9-10" here.. A foot is possible in some areas but I'll stick with the 9-10" for RFD area...
Should be interesting.
 
Add KS to that list. We are starting with heavy rains, lots of lighting and pea size hail. We have Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories in place with expectations of up to 7" of snow to follow.
 
Here in St. Joseph, cold rain possibly mixed with snow/sleet will begin shortly. We are forecast to get 6-12 inches of snow. I wouldn't be surprised to hear some thunder when it really gets cranking. The radar for Topeka/ Kansas City are very impressive, the only question is how long we will stay above freezing while this first wave of precipitation moves in.
 
Things trending a bit further northwest on the midnight and 12z run. Looks like the heaviest snow of a foot or more will fall from far northeast KS, up through northwest MO, up towards Des Moines/Williamsburg IA, to Dubuque IA, and over towards Milwaukee.

The cold air is fairly stubborn and won't move much from where it's currently at. There may be a narrow zone of light ice accumulations from northwest MO into eastern IA.
 
Here in St. Joseph, we had thunder sleet that quickly transitioned to snow. We are now at 32 degrees. The precipitation shield is almost through, we've had about 1-2 inches from this batch. It looks like things will quiet down until the storm gets organized this afternoon. Still looking for 6-12 inches of snow.
 
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Cstrunk, you may be sitting in very favorable location for the heaviest snow. The heaviest snow will fall just northwest of where the mix/snow line stalls at. Well it really won't be stalling, but it will be moving southeast very slowly.
 
Cstrunk, you may be sitting in very favorable location for the heaviest snow. The heaviest snow will fall just northwest of where the mix/snow line stalls at. Well it really won't be stalling, but it will be moving southeast very slowly.

I think you are correct. Anywhere from St. Joseph to Nebraska City could see the most. Ultimately it is going depend where the heaviest bands decide to linger, and if we get stuck under one.

Most of the precip from the 1st wave has now passed. It actually turned back to sleet before turning into rain again as the temperature bumped back up to 33.
 
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