2/25/07 FCST: FL / GA

[Justin E. Reed]

The system currently in AR,LA, and MS will slide eastward, carrying some of its energy to this part of the south. Currently DPTs are in the mid 40s, but are goin to surge thru tonight, and especially tomorrow with the approach and passgae of the warm front. Winds are already 15-20 and gusty from the SE, and shifting SSW tomorrow and becoming 20-25 gusting to 35-40, bringing moist Gulf air. Much of the morning will be quiet, just breezy, then after 1300, we can watch the show unfold to the west, sliding this way. A slight risk of tornadoes, but I'm more conserned about a strong squall line traveling donw I-10. Now, last time, we had the infamous 7-10 split, where Jacksonville gets missed by going N and S of us. The line will begin to intensify , and possibly be imbedded with discrete supercells once it slides into JAX. So, from about a TPA to DAB line, to SVN, is your best chance of severe weather.

SPC
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

 

[Jason Persoff]

Justin--You're in Jax too? I'm convinced that there are geographic and mesoscale climate issues about the St. John's River: things do seem to split north and south. Water temps are going to be cool tomorrow, though, and the onshore flow will bring some of the cooler air in from the sea. I'm afraid that if the winds shift more easterly that we'll lose the sfc-level gulf moisture since the Gulf Stream is always well-off of Jax shores and the temps are cool. Would like an evening light show...SDS is really kicking in.

 

[HAltschule]

Hi Jason,

I follow the weather in JAX also. I have a friend down there, Mike Davis, who is a weather buff and HAM. Actually he just signed on to Stormtrack last week. He always talks about the "Baker County Breakdown"...which for some reason almost always happens. So, I think you are all on to something with the sea breeze effect or the "St. John's River Effect". LOL. Perhaps he will chime in also.

 

[mrobinett]

Yeah, he's right about the Baker County Breakdown, Ive seen it too. Im in Gainesville, Ill be watching tomorrow.

 

[Justin E. Reed]

All in all, to be gramically correct, it is the St. Johns River, no appostrophe. Anyways, the river significantly affects our weather in Duval, Clay, St Johns, and Putnam Counties, due to the fact it is mostly over 1 mile wide, and is 3 miles wide here at NAS JAX. Watch a sat image on a summer day, you will see little cumulus all over the place, except over the river, due to its enormous size. The 7-10 split usually starts in Baker County, and rapidly opens up, but tomorrow, the models show a southerly, then SSW wind in the afternoon. Shear and moisture should not be a problem, temps, possibly, by highly doubtful. We run models here that the public can not view due to military reasons. This will be an event to watch, I'm not chasing this one, cause FHP decided to ticket me 3 times, so that hurt the wallet. If your in JAX area, email me or message me here and we can gather and have a meeting or something. Yall be safe.

 

[Jason Persoff]

That's hysterical, Justin. I've lived here 10 yrs and didn't know that the SJR didn't have an apostrophe. LOL.

Indeed the winds are out of the SSW and there is visible mid-level stratus streaming NNE here (1730z). The am sounding had terrific rotational shear, but most of that is now offshore. Front (from W FL panhandle to SC) is draped nearly parallel to the sfc winds (very typical FL winter weather setup with squalls). Some backing of winds is visible in SE GA. But the Tds are meaty (59 current in Jax) and the temps are good (75).

Upside is there is sfc lift from the front with a "Southeastern Dryline" (Tds to the west are in the low 40s). Jax is in the diffluent wind field of the H2 jet and LIs will be near -3. CAPE absolutely sucks though: we're gonna struggle to see maybe 100j/KG.

Decreasingly confident about SVR today. Storms will be vented, but lacking in available energy. Prefer high CAPE low shear over what we have today. Thoughts? May head out in an hour or so depending on the Sat and radar data.