Bob Schafer
EF5
Anyone afflicted with severe SDS, already located in N TX/S OK, looking for a "warm up" chase for 2005, and able to chase Tuesday might be somewhat intrigued by the forecast for then.
Both ETA and GFS are progging some interesting parameters, but your target would be quite different depending on which you may choose to believe. ETA would have you east of I-35, GFS substantially west.
Both are presenting "decent" sfc theta-e's (for Feb) ATTM, LI's as low as -8, good (but weak) directional shear, some UVV's at 0Z and 6Z for 2-23, and decent upper level support. The biggest negative is weak speeds from sfc on up through 700mb, so expect any storms to lose severity quickly.
If the forecast gets any worse, forget it.....but if it gets better, well, you have your heads up!
Bob
Both ETA and GFS are progging some interesting parameters, but your target would be quite different depending on which you may choose to believe. ETA would have you east of I-35, GFS substantially west.
Both are presenting "decent" sfc theta-e's (for Feb) ATTM, LI's as low as -8, good (but weak) directional shear, some UVV's at 0Z and 6Z for 2-23, and decent upper level support. The biggest negative is weak speeds from sfc on up through 700mb, so expect any storms to lose severity quickly.
If the forecast gets any worse, forget it.....but if it gets better, well, you have your heads up!
Bob