2/21/2010 FCST: TX/LA

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Zonal flow across the mid-section of the US has resulted in lee cyclongenesis this morning with a sfc low over eastern New Mexico. The response to this at the surface will be strong southerly winds across Texas today into the weekend. Friday a strong s/w trough will enter the SW U.S. and quickly moves east into the Plains Saturday into Sunday. BL moisture return ahead of this feature will be marginal due to last Mondays strong Polar front that went well into the Gulf. That being said, dewpoints in the 55-60 range are forecasted to be in place Sunday morning across a good portion of East Texas right along and east of the I-35 corridor. Models develop ML Capes around 1500 in the warm sector Sunday afternoon when the s/w is progged to push a dryline west to east across Texas. Steepening lapse rates and veering wind profiles will lead to supercells and bowing segments with thread of marginal hail and damaging winds. The threat of tornadoes appears rather low attm, however, if BL moisture is more then forecast, a greater risk for tornadoes will be possible.


WHITEHEAD

 

[Bryan Draper]

Its somewhat of a glimmer of hope. But forecast seems somewhat unsure of whats going to happen. I'd have to agree with the BL moisture and if is stronger than expected it could be an ok day to head out. If it does come together I'll be headed to tyler, But as you said we'll have to see if the moisture shows up and see how the forecasts deal with it over the next 48 hours

 

[Jim Bishop]

This setup doesn't look that bad..it has some potential over central to eastern TX early, then towards Louisiana later in the day Sunday (for Feb standards). We just need the shortwave to slow down a little bit. Storms should fire in the morning with supercells quite possible - a tornado threat is even possible if things pan out well. Watch for a big squall line by the afternoon.

I have a more detailed discussion on my blog.

http://www.stormgasm.com/blog/

We'll see. These late winter setups are good forecasting practice for the real stuff later in the Spring.

- Jim