2/2/07 DISC: FL

[Stan Rose]

My apologies for asking a stupid question, but I'm a rank armchair lurker, and I know I should already know this but I don't... what is the exact meteorological explanation for that tendency for tornadoes to hit this part of Fla. at night in winter? Is it just that at this time of year, the upper level air only cools enough at night to enable explosive supercell development? Or is something else at work?

Again, very sorry for the "duh" question, but this isn't the type of answer that is easily Googled (I tried before embarrassing myself here!). Thanks!

Miriam; not at all a dumb question, at least I hope not cause I consider myself an expert in severe wx, and i don't know the answer, or even if that's a valid statement. So maybe someone can enlighten us
What I do know from basic climatology is that strong/violent tornadoes in fla peak in the morning (~9am) although a good number do occur at night. Probably to some extent we're more familiar with nightime outbreaks since they tend to kill more people. There may be something to your idea of decreased destabilization (i dunno, but i doubt it) Or maybe the land-sea temp differences have something to do with it (you'd expect greater temp difference at night with any cold push, no?) Im really just grasping at straws. The main thing I would emphasize is that diurnal heating factors aren't gonna play a serious role for the number of outbreaks; winter outbreaks are going to be more dependent on strong dynamics (strong jet/front) which can occur at any time of the day/night, and obviously the jet is going to be well positioned this time of year. But I'm not really 'up' on Florida weather, so maybe someone can give us both a better response.

 

[Perry Williams]

My apologies for asking a stupid question, but I'm a rank armchair lurker, and I know I should already know this but I don't... what is the exact meteorological explanation for that tendency for tornadoes to hit this part of Fla. at night in winter? Is it just that at this time of year, the upper level air only cools enough at night to enable explosive supercell development? Or is something else at work?

Again, very sorry for the "duh" question, but this isn't the type of answer that is easily Googled (I tried before embarrassing myself here!). Thanks!

If the atmospheric conditions are favorable (as they were the other night), a strong to violent tornado can strike anytime of day or night.....at any time of year. Nighttime and early morning intense tornadoes aren't uncommon here in the deep south; in fact, the deadliest tornado in Georgia history occurred the morning of April 6, 1936....when a large F4 tornado struck Gainesville at breakfasttime (8:30 am) and killed 203 people. The deadliest tornado in Florida history was the Kissimmee F3 after midnight on February 23, 1998....which took 25 lives.

If this tornado turns out (as I believe it will) to be one single long track tornado from The Villages to Deland, it will become the 2nd deadliest Florida tornado of record.....with the death toll currently standing at 20.
Nighttime tornadoes are especially dangerous....especially here in the southeast where many residents live in mobile homes/ mobile home communities. Of even more concern to me is the population explosion in many areas of the south in recent years. This tornado would have impacted far less people two or three decades ago (I'm old enough to remember when Lake county, Florida was rural and sparsely populated); as the population of mobile home residents continue to increase in areas prone to nighttime tornadoes, I fear we'll see more frequent tornado disasters of this proportion in coming years.....or possibly even deadlier

PW

 

[Jeff Miller]

Latest information has come in showing that there are at least 3 seperate tornadoes in this tornado family, what is obviously a cyclic HP supercell. As what seems to be the case often, the second of the three tornadoes appears to be the most intense and I believe the longest tracked tornado, with the third being the weakest. Ratings indicate no higher than EF3 and no lower than EF1 with the known surveyed tornadoes.

EVENT SUMMARY AS OF 5:34 PM CST

NUMBER OF KNOWN TORNADOES: 3

TORNADO 1
Name: The Villages/Lady Lake Tornado
Touchdown: Sumter county near Wildwood.
Fatalities: Lady Lake (6)
Maximum Rating: HIGH EF3 (155-160 MPH)
Path Length: 15 Miles
Time Struck Lady Lake: 3:20 AM
Maximum Width: 1/4 Mile

TORNADO 2:
Name: Lake Mack/Deland Tornado
Fatalities: Lake Mack (11), Forest Drive and State Route 44 (3)
Rating: HIGH EF3 (150-165 MPH)
Path Length: 22 Miles
Time Struck Lake Mack: 3:48 AM
Time Struck Deland: 4:02 AM
Maximum Width: 1/8 Mile

TORNADO 3:
Name: New Smyrna Beach/Ponce Inlet Tornado
Fatalities: 0
Rating: EF1
Touch Down: Just East of I-95
Path Length: 5 Miles
Time Struck Ponce Inlet: 4:27 AM

 

[Alexandre Aguiar]

The photos in the front pages of some Florida's newspapers are just incredible e justifiy what many folks said earlier in the thread: "it could be much, much worse". Here are the front pages:

Florida Today

El Nuevo Heraldo

St. Petesburg Times

Star-Banner

The Tampa Tribune

 

[Jeff Miller]

Thanks for the St. Petersburg Times reprint, Alexandre.

Not sure if anyone else here caught this yet, but how about "Supercells, Tornadoes that Last" article on the front page? The front page article goes on to tell how, and I quote,

"A Supercell is an especially deadly type of tornado that rarely strikes the state."

WRONG...as we all here are fully aware, supercells are NOT the tornado..a supercell spawns a tornado...and is certainly not an especially deadly type of tornado, as all tornadoes can be deadly. Heck, with their doctrine, we should start issuing "Supercell Warnings"!!!

"Supercells last longer than other types of tornadoes, which is why this twister stayed powerful enough to rip across three Florida counties".

WRONG. These tornadoes were a family of three, this was a HP cyclic supercell that spawned strong tornadoes of average path length and not totally abnormal intensity given the meteorological conditions. and again, a Supercell is NOT a tornado!!!

I would have at least like to have seen these journalists research their information with enough detail to appropriately state that the Supercell is the storm responsible for the tornado, and not a "type of tornado" in and of itself. If they want to talk about powerful tornadoes, they need to look at an article on EF ratings. I am not sure if I am the only one, but these kind of journalistic blunders really make me wonder how much research they really do in their stories -- or who their 'sources' were in the first place.

Now we have the city of St. Petersburg educated to watch out for them big ol' supercellnadoes. Sigh. If I was editor in chief of this paper, these writers would be at the least reprimanded and at the most, sent down for their new jobs -- refilling the ink cartridges down in the printing rooms.

 

[Tony Lyza]

Thanks for the St. Petersburg Times reprint, Alexandre.

Not sure if anyone else here caught this yet, but how about "Supercells, Tornadoes that Last" article on the front page? The front page article goes on to tell how, and I quote,

"A Supercell is an especially deadly type of tornado that rarely strikes the state."

WRONG...as we all here are fully aware, supercells are NOT the tornado..a supercell spawns a tornado...and is certainly not an especially deadly type of tornado, as all tornadoes can be deadly. Heck, with their doctrine, we should start issuing "Supercell Warnings"!!!

"Supercells last longer than other types of tornadoes, which is why this twister stayed powerful enough to rip across three Florida counties".

WRONG. These tornadoes were a family of three, this was a HP cyclic supercell that spawned strong tornadoes of average path length and not totally abnormal intensity given the meteorological conditions. and again, a Supercell is NOT a tornado!!!

I would have at least like to have seen these journalists research their information with enough detail to appropriately state that the Supercell is the storm responsible for the tornado, and not a "type of tornado" in and of itself. If they want to talk about powerful tornadoes, they need to look at an article on EF ratings. I am not sure if I am the only one, but these kind of journalistic blunders really make me wonder how much research they really do in their stories -- or who their 'sources' were in the first place.

Now we have the city of St. Petersburg educated to watch out for them big ol' supercellnadoes. Sigh. If I was editor in chief of this paper, these writers would be at the least reprimanded and at the most, sent down for their new jobs -- refilling the ink cartridges down in the printing rooms.

That doesn't irk me nearly as much as how many national TV outlets were calling the damage F2 damage when the Sumter County survey was the only one out, even though that survey mentioned the damage being of low-EF3 intensity.

 

[mrobinett]

I have lived in Florida for over 50 yrs. My head is in the clouds as often as any storm chaser or weather nut. I have seen many thousands of thunderstorms, but have NEVER viewed a rotating one. Now, I have seen dopplar radar based tornado warnings go out several times a year; so there is some rotation once in a while; but not your typically easy to confirm by people viewing these storms nearby.

Same here, been here 27 years, that about sums it up. One day about two years ago I got tired of the same Florida setups and stepped into the "Big Arena" I havent been the same since.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

It has been pretty interesting how much more they are mentioning the term supercell. I wonder how many chaser sites are seeing some increase in traffic from folks looking up more info on this "new" term "supercell". Sure if you live around the OKC market I'm guessing it is not so new to people, and even to some degree around Omaha or other larger cities in the "normal" alley. I'm just not sure I've seen it used so often on all the larger networks covering something.

One thing I've seen a lot from the set of images of mine that go around and around, is that MANY people don't even need to see any form of funnel to call it a tornado. Over and over I've seen those images, without any sign of a tornado, called tornadoes. Hopefully they'll continue to use the term more so some can maybe understand things a little better.

 

[Danny Neal]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/surveys/020207/audio/NWS_Warning.mp3

Audio file of the TOR warning for Lady Lake. Thought it was interesting to hear. Sort of a "proof" that they were warned and if you had a NOAA Wx Radio, this is what you might have heard....

This is also found on the preliminary survey page of the tornadoes from MLB

 

[Mike Theiss]

Here is a link to some damage photos I took in Central Florida.

http://www.ultimatechase.com/Chase_Accounts/florida_tornado_damage_photos_2007.htm

Mike Theiss
UltimateChase.com

 

[Miriam Lawrence]

Nighttime and early morning intense tornadoes aren't uncommon here in the deep south

Thanks, Perry! Exactly -- but that's what I'm wondering: why is this true? I've heard it more than once, from reliable sources. For example, this comes from the Florida Division of Emergency Management page on tornadoes (http://www.floridadisaster.org/hwa03/tornado.htm), emphasis mine:

Over most of the nation large killer tornadoes tend to occur in the late afternoon and early evening hours. This is due to the afternoon buildup of heat in the lower atmosphere that lingers into the early nighttime hours. Florida is different. Tornado climatology shows us that strong to violent tornadoes are just as likely to occur after midnight as they are in the afternoon. This unique feature makes these tornadoes more dangerous, because most people are asleep after midnight and do not receive warnings relayed by commercial radio or television.
​

The only thing I can think of is that because the state is so narrow, surrounded by water, and tropical, that the air can remain energy-filled much later into the night and therefore more capable of fueling strong tornadoes. I'll bring this over to the general weather discussion to see what people say, if anything.

 

[Justin E. Reed]

I chased this storm down. I left Jacksonville about midnight. Kinda hung around in Bunnell, some damage from earlier storms, lots of street flooding. I tracked down another intense one in Andalusia. I saw the storm go from 2 strikes a minute, to over a dozen, drove thru heavy rain, and then pulled over in a gap between trees by a flooded field. DEAD CALM and the storm was glowing, lightning east, it sounded like a roaring waterfall directly overhead, and was rotating rapidly. The pines gently leaned to the W, then went N, W,S,E , and then blasted easily to the east at 65mph, many fell and a barn blew apart, scary stuff. Headed south to catch the Lady Lake one at 95 &4, all I saw was debris raining outta the sky, I called NWS Melbourne and reported it, that was their first confirmation that it did happen. Very intense storms, if the time comes again, shoot, I'd do it, just don't tell my chain of command.

 

[Mike Davis]

Callahan FL damage at 6am

Minor damage to several mobile homes and one large building rolled at Ratliff Road/Thomas Creek in Callahan, FL. I am 8 miles from it, Vchased it, and received 7 photos laptopped from scene to study. With the NWS TOR Warn, and radar indicating a TVS with 41 k/s, the photos seem to confirm an F0.

Mike Davis, N4FOZ