2/2/07 DISC: FL

[Perry Williams]

i think states should make it law to have NOAA weather radios in each and every house/school (probably already there anyways) ect.

Yes, but how can any law MAKE a homeowner (or mobile home resident) TURN on their NOAA weather radio alarm before going to bed? Theaten to arrest them afterwords if their home is destroyed and they survive??
Sadly, anyone in the path of the vicious nighttime tornado last night inside a mobile home without having their weatheralert radio on is probably no longer here to arrest.

That's the problem....with Nexrad, NWS can provide excellent warnings, they can give adequate lead times; we can even mandate (force) mobile home residents to buy (or be given) a new NOAA wxradio. What we cannot do is make them keep a fresh battery inside that radio....or turn it on before going to bed...

If you live in a tornado prone area inside a mobile home; especially here in the southeast where significant nighttime tornadoes aren't uncommon.....you have to take some personal responsibility to save your life and the lives of those you love. If you fail to do so....you sadly suffer the consequences of your actions. Twenty men, women, and children paid the price in central Florida (IMO 95% who perished were inside a mobile home or trying to flee a MH) last night.....just as two dozen died in SW Georgia one stormy night in February 2000....and 13 in NE Georgia on a stormy pre-dawn March morning in 1998.

My family and I survived a pre-dawn tornado in 1974 (awoken by my frantic father only 30-40 seconds before the tornado struck); we survived because a) we were inside a brick home, and b) the tornado was relatively weak (110-120 mph IMO). If it had been a strong F3 or we'd instead been inside a trailer, I probably wouldn't be here today. Let me assure you, that terrifying spring morning woke my parents up to the danger of tornadoes. Less than a week later, we owned a NOAA weather radio (Atlanta was one of the first NOAA wx radio stations on the air); I haven't went to sleep inside a home without one since....

On second thought....maybe the answer to nighttime tornadoes in the southeast is utilizing some type of E911 call back to all homes when a tornado warning is issued. Only one problem.....some home, apartment, and mobile home residents don't have a telephone (or use a cellphone as their primary phone). Also, most new phones can easily be unplugged or turned OFF by the homeowner (I can turn the "ringer" off on both my phones). It all comes down in the end to taking personal responsibility for your safety....either you use common sense in tornadic situations and live or don't and die; the NWS and storm spotters can only do so much.....

My kudos to SPC and the WSFO offices in Tampa Bay and Melbourne....I was awake watching the situation last night; they did a heckuva job (esp. KMLB); did everything possible to save lives.

PW

 

[Scott Olson]

There are nearly 100 photos of storm damage avaliable from the Orlando Sentinel.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news...-mg,0,4399274.gallery?coll=orl-home-headlines

At the moment this looks like it could be a very costly event in terms of destruction and loss of life. When astrong rain-wrapped tornado occurs at night, it's a trifecta for disaster.

I've put together an overview of the radar data from this event.
Radar Analysis of Florida Tornadoes

 

[Alexandre Aguiar]

I've put together an overview of the radar data from this event. Radar Analysis of Florida Tornadoes

Dear Scott

Extraordinary !!!! Your blog is great !! I would like to post a comment there, but It is unavailable. So I write here what I would write there: "Extraordinary Job". Thank you also for relocating the thread. The Orlando Sentil also has the 911 calls during the tornadoes:

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news...,5608954.audiogallery?coll=orl-home-headlines

By the way, can anyone confirm if this is the wintertime most letal tornado outbreak or tornado event in Florida or the South ?

Alexandre

 

[Perry Williams]

Dear Scott

Extraordinary !!!! Your blog is great !! I would like to post a comment there, but It is unavailable. So I write here what I would write there: "Extraordinary Job". Thank you also for relocating the thread. The Orlando Sentil also has the 911 calls during the tornadoes:

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news...,5608954.audiogallery?coll=orl-home-headlines

By the way, can anyone confirm if this is the wintertime most letal tornado outbreak or tornado event in Florida or the South ?

Alexandre

Deadliest winter tornado outbreak? No..

The February 22-23, 1998 tornado outbreak (also near Orlando and Daytona Beach) killed 42 people....25 in one large long track 200 mph tornado which struck Kissimmee. This was both the single deadliest (25) tornado and deadliest tornado outbreak in Florida history (42 deaths).

On February 21, 1971, a vicious tornado outbreak struck Mississippi and NE Louisiana. 121 lives were lost, mostly in western Mississippi as the result of three very violent tornadoes (one F5 and 2 F4's) which were all long track (one possessed a damage path almost 200 miles long).

The deadliest wintertime tornado outbreak however, occurred on February 19, 1884.....and struck the southeast as well as the Ohio Valley (but damage and deaths in Kentucky, Tennessee, southern Illinois and Indiana paled in comparism to the carnage farther south that day). Estimates of the dead ranged from 420 to 1200......as towns and rural areas from Mississippi to North Carolina were leveled. The best estimate is that 800 lives were lost that day. It was an extrordinarily violent tornadic swarm......some of the stories I've read about that outbreak are horrifying (multiple tornadoes striking the same location; a school in rural north Georgia where many died; an extremely vicious evening tornado near Rockingham, North Carolina in which bodies were strewn for miles along the twister's path).

This tornado last night was a bad one.....strong F3 IMO (winds 175-200 mph), but nothing close to the worst wintertime outbreaks in U.S. history.

PW

 

[beaudodson]

Yes, I believe the NWS said this would be the second most deadliest tornado in the history of Florida. That was reported by the media. Unsure on the accuracy of that.

 

[Scott Olson]

Dear Scott

Extraordinary !!!! Your blog is great !! I would like to post a comment there, but It is unavailable. So I write here what I would write there: "Extraordinary Job". Thank you also for relocating the thread. The Orlando Sentil also has the 911 calls during the tornadoes:

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news...,5608954.audiogallery?coll=orl-home-headlines

By the way, can anyone confirm if this is the wintertime most letal tornado outbreak or tornado event in Florida or the South ?

Alexandre

Thanks! As Perry pointed out this wouldn't have been the deadliest but it looks like it might be the second deadliest tornado outbreak in Floridas history. Florida's deadliest winter outbreak and the third deadliest also involved overnight tornadoes.

 

[Howard Robinson]

WSBTV Atlanta has some pictures of damage path.
http://www.wsbtv.com/index.html

 

[Mark Farnik]

I'd like to point out that as devastating and tragic as this storm was, it could have been far, far worse.The tornado tracked only 20 miles north of Orlando. If that supercell had tracked only 20 miles farther to the south, you would have had what looks to have been a quarter mile to as much as a half mile wide, strong E-F3 tornado plowing through the metro Orlando area, population just shy of 2 million as of the July 2006 census, at 3:15 in the morning. Sounds like the plot out of a tv disaster movie, doesn't it?
I know without a doubt that had this tornado struck Orlando, the death toll would have been considerably, if not staggeringly higher. And the damage could have easily reached into the tens of billions of dollars, especially if the storm had hit any of the countless multi-billion dollar theme parks that pepper the vicinity. Thank god it hit a slightly less densely populated (relative to most of Florida) area. It was still a terrible tragedy, nonetheless. My heart goes out to those who lost so much, whether it was their homes, their possessions, their loved ones or any heartbreaking combination of the above. My prayers, like the rest of yours, are with them.
I take some small comfort in the fact the tornado missed Orlando this time. Sooner or later, though, the Orlando metro will get hit by a significant tornado; the city lies right smack dab in the middle of a mini tornado alley prone to violent, nighttime tornado outbreaks. It's not a matter of if, just a matter of when...
We can only hope last night's tragedy in Lady Lake and Paisley will encourage all Floridians to buy weather radios. Because if they don't take heed, I have no doubt that when Orlando's number does come up, she will likely be the first major city to suffer 50 or more fatalities in a single tornado in over 60 years.

 

[Perry Williams]

I'd like to point out that as devastating and tragic as this storm was, it could have been far, far worse.The tornado tracked only 20 miles north of Orlando. If that supercell had tracked only 20 miles farther to the south, you would have had what looks to have been a quarter mile to as much as a half mile wide, strong E-F3 tornado plowing through the metro Orlando area, population just shy of 2 million as of the July 2006 census, at 3:15 in the morning. Sounds like the plot out of a tv disaster movie, doesn't it?
I know without a doubt that had this tornado struck Orlando, the death toll would have been considerably, if not staggeringly higher. And the damage could have easily reached into the tens of billions of dollars, especially if the storm had hit any of the countless multi-billion dollar theme parks that pepper the vicinity. Thank god it hit a slightly less densely populated (relative to most of Florida) area. It was still a terrible tragedy, nonetheless. My heart goes out to those who lost so much, whether it was their homes, their possessions, their loved ones or any heartbreaking combination of the above. My prayers, like the rest of yours, are with them.
I take some small comfort in the fact the tornado missed Orlando this time. Sooner or later, though, the Orlando metro will get hit by a significant tornado; the city lies right smack dab in the middle of a mini tornado alley prone to violent, nighttime tornado outbreaks. It's not a matter of if, just a matter of when...
We can only hope last night's tragedy in Lady Lake and Paisley will encourage all Floridians to buy weather radios. Because if they don't take heed, I have no doubt that when Orlando's number does come up, she will likely be the first major city to suffer 50 or more fatalities in a single tornado in over 60 years.

I've been thinking the same thing....as bad and tragic as both this tornado and the 1998 Florida tornadoes were, it could have been far worse.

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

Well, yes, if I ever(even if it happens in 50 years) come to the USA, then the first thing I would do is buying a weather radio. I hope that any Estonians living in Florida weren't affected. I have found out that quite a number of them is living there.

 

[Jason McIntosh]

Every state has their historic tornado of all time. For WI it is Barneveld. Even though the New Richmond, WI tornado killed more people; Barneveld has always remained the unthinkable disaster. Just like the FL tornado(es) of 2/2/07; Barneveld was hit with a tornado in the middle of the night. As I watched the news this morning all I could think about was Barneveld and how it must have been to wake up to the monster. Regardless of the F or EF scale; it's amazing that more people didn't die. Barneveld was an F-5 and killed 9 people. The Lady Lake/Paisley looks to be an F-3 and killed at least 19 people. It's horrible that such a tragedy can happen. Yes it's possible that more can be done to get the warnings out to people. Even if there was a law to own a weather radio does that mean you have to turn it on? The NWS did it's job in warning the public whether or not they were listening. If there was a community of stormchasers like us we would all be outside of town. I hope that this tragedy can get more people involved so that next time this happens the people will be ready. This was a wake up call for everyone.

 

[GPhillips]

Preliminary estimate was a "low-end EF-3."

Yes, but that's just from the Tampa Bay office for a part of one county. The main tornado track and fatalities were in WFO Melbourne's county warning area. I'm not saying the rating will be any higher there, but it certainly could be.

 

[Miriam Lawrence]

Reasons for nighttime tornadoes?

...the city lies right smack dab in the middle of a mini tornado alley prone to violent, nighttime tornado outbreaks.

My apologies for asking a stupid question, but I'm a rank armchair lurker, and I know I should already know this but I don't... what is the exact meteorological explanation for that tendency for tornadoes to hit this part of Fla. at night in winter? Is it just that at this time of year, the upper level air only cools enough at night to enable explosive supercell development? Or is something else at work?

Again, very sorry for the "duh" question, but this isn't the type of answer that is easily Googled (I tried before embarrassing myself here!). Thanks!

 

[Scott Olson]

Some preliminary info from MLB:
http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.nous42.KMLB.html

[FONT=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]INITIAL FIELD REPORTS ARE THAT A HIGH END EF-3 TORNADO STRUCK THIS
AREA CAUSING COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES...AND CAUSING
LARGE TREES TO BECOME DEBARKED WITH ONLY THE STUBS OF THE LARGEST
BRANCHES REMAINING. [/FONT][FONT=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]THE TORNADO AT PAISLEY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE ONE-QUARTER MILE
WIDE.[/FONT]

[FONT=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier][/FONT]

 

[Jeff Miller]

To add on what Scott said, Some more information for users, adding on an EF2...

THEY HAVE REPORTED A HIGH END EF3 (~150-160 MPH) FROM LAKE MACK TO
THE LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE AND A HIGH END EF2 IN THE DELAND AREA.
THE TEAMS ARE STILL CONDUCTING THEIR SURVEY OF THE LONG DAMAGE
TRACK...AND ONE WILL SOON BE SURVEYING THE HEAVILY DAMAGED AREAS
FROM PAISLEY TO LADY LAKE AND THE VILLAGES

Really curious what they are going to estimate the Lady Lake damage at.