2/2/07 DISC: FL

[Bill Tabor]

I spoke with a truck driving friend in New Smyrna Beach, Florida. His adult daughter, by mistake, set her morrning alarm clock 3 hours early. One minute after it woke her up, the house began to shake. She grabbed her baby out of the crib and ran to the interior closet. The roof blew off first; then a tree crashed into the bedroom and crushed the empty crib. The rest of the house came apart within a few seconds; but no-one got injured.

That's an amazing story Richard. If true, that is SO coincidental that it seems to be beyond that, and is really some type of "intervention". Amazing! Thanks for sharing.

 

[Justin Turcotte]

Seems to be the hot area of the state for tornado activity during El Nino. I did a paper on the subject a fears ago at UNL. While not significant statewide with high confidence the plots certainly suggest something goes on in central FL during El Nino versus La Nina. I also attached the ENSO neutral plot which looks similar to the Nino plot but with a little less frequency in central FL and more in the Panhandle. Plots are number of F1+ tornadoes per county of occurrence.

 

[Alexandre Aguiar]

Death toll stands now at 19.

 

[beaudodson]

NWS MLB Preliminary Information is on their web site now

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/surveys/020207/index.html

 

[Bill Hark]

There is a very nice thread on the Eastern USA weather forums about that tornadic event. It is 11 pages and starts with some forecasting, then discussion during and after the tornadoes. There is slightly more "noise" than Stormtrack but some of the folks posted nice high level radar captures (velocity and reflectivity) and some data. The couplet is absolutely amazing.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=123011&st=0

If the above link doesn't work, try cutting and pasting the link below.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=123011&st=0


Bill Hark

Eastern Fury: Eastern Tornadoes Compiled on a DVD for sale
http://www.harkphoto.com/EasternFury.html
.
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[Brian Stertz]

I wonder if the steady state nature may lead this to be discovered to be the longest tracked tornado in Florida history. I'll have to check this in Tom Grazulis' book. The closest one I can recall was the 2/23/98 C.Florida killer tornado that had a 38 mile long damage path across Orange & Osceola Counties.

 

[Tony Lyza]

Brian, I believe the Gibsonia F4 of 4/4/66 is recorded officially as going across the entire state.

 

[Chris Hayes]

There were 2 tornadoes on April 4, 1966 that crossed the Florida Penninsula. One was an F4, the other was an F2. Officially there were 2 tornados that day, but I wouldnt be surprised if one, possibly both of those tracks were broken up a bit. Maybe

 

[Greg Stumpf]

What a time to implement the EF scale - the first major event for the new rating system happens less than a day after it went into effect. I will be very interested to see the new assessment and rating process in action.

The National QRT has been activated, and Dan McCarthy (SPC) has been sent to FL. So has Jim LaDue of the WDTB (not a QRT member....yet). Both were instrumental in the development of the EF-Scale training for the NWS, and are there to test out the new scale and the EFkit PDA software in the field. You couldn't ask for a better set of surveyers on this first "EF Event".

 

[Greg Stumpf]

Several of us here at the lab have been putting together some graphics of our WDSS-II rotation tracks product.

Kiel...let me trump you. Here is one of the graphics that Kiel, myself, and others have put together, viewable in Google Earth.

http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/geotiff_examples/20070202/RotationTracks.kml

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Preliminary damage assessment for Sumter county:

[FONT=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]...TORNADO WITH 140 TO 150 MPH WINDS CONFIRMED IN NORTHEASTERN
SUMTER COUNTY...

A PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY CONDUCTED BY STAFF FROM THE NWS OFFICE IN
RUSKIN HAS DETERMINED THAT A TORNADO...CONTAINING WINDS UP TO 150
MPH...CAUSED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES FROM NEAR WILDWOOD TO
THE VILLAGES IN NORTHEAST SUMTER COUNTY. THE TRACK BEGAN IN THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF WILDWOOD AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 301 AND
COUNTY ROAD 462...THEN RACED NORTHEAST FOR 5 MILES BEFORE CONTINUING
INTO THE LAKE COUNTY PORTION OF THE VILLAGES...ONE AND ONE HALF
MILES SOUTH OF COUNTY ROAD 466. THOUGH THE FINAL COUNT OF DAMAGED OR
DESTROYED HOMES...AS WELL AS INSURED DAMAGE...WILL NOT BE KNOWN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THE FOLLOWING DETAILS HAVE BEEN OBTAINED FROM THE
TEAM THUS FAR:

INTENSITY...LOW END EF-3 (SCALE 139-167 MPH). TRADITIONAL F-SCALE:
STRONG F-2 (F-2 SCALE RANGES FROM 113 TO 157 MPH). ACTUAL TORNADO
WINDS ESTIMATED AROUND 140-150 MPH. THIS IS ALSO

[/FONT]
--> http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KTBW/0702022209.nous42.html

 

[Danny Neal]

CNN was reporting this to be the worst tornado ever to hit the state of FL at first I thought "yeah right" but after thinking about it.....hitting at 3-4 AM, no warning sirens, mostly retirement communities, high speed possibly rain wrapped, it may be true. Now I know it probably wont be the strongest tornado to hit FL, but giving the fact it might be one long tracked very deadly tornado, I can see how it would be. Any thoughts on this? I wonder where most of the deaths were concentrated. I know there were 6 in Lady Lake and 11 in Paisley. Anyone know where the other 2 were confirmed? Is Paisley mostly a retirement community? or is it a trailor park town. I know its on State road 44, on the only live shots I have seen from there, it seems like its mobile homes....

 

[Kevin Bowman]

I have heard one mention of NOAA weather radio on CNN by Chad Meyer. He basically described it as a "box that you plug into the wall, and for maybe 10 years it will collect dust but, when a tornado emergency hits it will yell out tones from the national weather service." Hmm that explanation right there makes me want to jump out of bed and buy 10! None of these communities had tornado sirens. Shocking.

tornado sirens wouldve done little to nothing considering the time of day. if you are sound asleep you arent going to hear it let alone over a thunderstorm.

 

[Danny Neal]

tornado sirens wouldve done little to nothing considering the time of day. if you are sound asleep you arent going to hear it let alone over a thunderstorm.

That is not the point I was trying to make. I understand your point but, I mean if they don't even HAVE tornado sirens whats the odds they will have a NOAA weather radio. It is a lack of preparedness. And if they are anything like my grandma, then it wouldnt matter anyway. She has one, unplugs or turns it off because she claims its not necessary. Doesn't put a battery in it because she claims she has other uses for it. It really gets me angry because i specifically bought it for her.

 

[beaudodson]

Glad everyone on the board is okay...

Here are some images I made from GEMPAK this evening.

Feel free to grab them and save - use as you like.


Two Loops - one long and one short

http://www.usawx.com/feb22007floridatornado.htm