Ilya Neyman
EF1
Whopper of a storm slamming California with a slight risk for SoCal.
SPC has been upgrading probabilities this morning, with an impressive line-up for the region.
Current analysis and progs all pointing to this area being something to watch today. Impressive 995 surface low off the NorCal coast bringing strong surface flow from the south. Very strong wind energy in all levels is setting up an impressive shear profile, especially for southern California coasts and valleys. Low level flow is currently backed from the SSE-ESE across many areas as a convergence boundary is evident over the inner coastal waters. 850 LLJ of 30-45 knot as progged by the models certainly creates room for concern, especially seeing this is overspreading southern Cal including the LA Basin. Cold pool aloft associated with dynamic upper energy will be destabilizing the atmosphere over the next several hours allowing convection to be increasingly prevalant. This will be coinciding with increasing temperatures and dewpoints pushing 50+ moving up from the south.
Storms going up in this environment will need to be watched very carefully as atypically strong wind shear, both speed and directional, along with instability and dynamics may cause issues.
SPC mentions velocity couplets already this morning with shallow convective elements offshore.
Forecasting severe in SoCal is tricky, as there are many variables to consider, including the rather concentrated geography for any activity to be focused in. Nevertheless, I do think a watch may be warranted as trends continue to be monitored.
SPC has been upgrading probabilities this morning, with an impressive line-up for the region.
Current analysis and progs all pointing to this area being something to watch today. Impressive 995 surface low off the NorCal coast bringing strong surface flow from the south. Very strong wind energy in all levels is setting up an impressive shear profile, especially for southern California coasts and valleys. Low level flow is currently backed from the SSE-ESE across many areas as a convergence boundary is evident over the inner coastal waters. 850 LLJ of 30-45 knot as progged by the models certainly creates room for concern, especially seeing this is overspreading southern Cal including the LA Basin. Cold pool aloft associated with dynamic upper energy will be destabilizing the atmosphere over the next several hours allowing convection to be increasingly prevalant. This will be coinciding with increasing temperatures and dewpoints pushing 50+ moving up from the south.
Storms going up in this environment will need to be watched very carefully as atypically strong wind shear, both speed and directional, along with instability and dynamics may cause issues.
SPC mentions velocity couplets already this morning with shallow convective elements offshore.
Forecasting severe in SoCal is tricky, as there are many variables to consider, including the rather concentrated geography for any activity to be focused in. Nevertheless, I do think a watch may be warranted as trends continue to be monitored.
