2/11/09 FCST: IL, IN, OH, KY, TN, MS, AL

[Chip Redmond]

I agree the Evansville/Tri-State region there looks great there is just no way we would be able to make it out. Also that will be still fairly early in the day. If the clouds can break at all east of there will have a very good potential of blowing up. Hence this:
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_ETA_0-3KM_CAPE_24HR.gif

Chip

 

[Bob Hartig]

At this point, I'm liking Xenia, the unofficial Tornado Alley of Ohio. The NAM-WRF for 21Z puts it at the nose of the 500mb jet max. I liked the winds better the last couple of runs than this latest, though--veering from surface to around 700mb was around 45 degrees, where now it's more unidirectional. I'll see what the morning run reveals.

 

[Zachary Lassiter]

I'm pondering if this might wonder into michigan.

 

[Chip Redmond]

I'm pondering if this might wonder into michigan.

Why do you think that? Dewpoints look like they will barely be in the 50's in northern Ohio, Indiana. Just curious


Chip

 

[Zachary Lassiter]

This is one of the Febuary things, from past experience once it gets going it takes a brick wall to stop it.

 

[Zachary Lassiter]

And the model is giving my theory a bit of love

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/v2/

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I'll write more in my blog, but here are a couple tidbits from my mind for tomorrow's setup. It's certainly WAY less than idea, but I think we'll see a -tiny- shot, for a -tiny- window at some low-topped supercells in SE Illinois and Indiana tomorrow early afternoon. Tiny enough that I'll keep an eye on in February.

Here are a few things I noted in my blog,

http://prairiestorm.blogspot.com/

"My main fear was the squall line being our only hope for tomorrow, bringing a 6 AM wind threat. It looks like the squall line in Arkansas and Missouri is currently racing out ahead of the low and may actually wash out near the Mississippi River. We may see pulsing severity as it continues into KY, TN and IN, but it should race out far enough from the low to give some attempt at clearing ahead of the low.

By 10 AM, the low level dry punch should be located about 50 miles SE of St. Louis in SE Missouri. The area ahead of this in central and southern Illinois could at this time see some destabilization. 0-3 KM cape values in this area are spiking quite a bit at 18Z, which at this time is 1 PM. This is late enough to potentially see some low-topped minisupercells form on the SE side of the low in central and southern Illinois. At 21Z we see that area of 0-3 km cape shift into southern and central Indiana.

I'll likely stay at home and feel the situation out to avoid jumping to early just because I'm over anxious after a long winter.

I'd like to try and hug the warm front to maximize low level helicity and low level cape for any tiny tornado potential to be realized. I'll watch the area outlined by a Champaign, IL to Terre Haute, IN line eastward to a Lafeyette to Indianapolis line."

 

[rdale]

This is one of the Febuary things, from past experience once it gets going it takes a brick wall to stop it.

That's what we call the state line... Certainly can't say no, but I have a hard time getting excited about things especially with the closest clear skies many many hours away.

I'm considering a N IN chase but even that may be too far north.

 

[david diehl]

Currentally right now, I am thinking of a Peru Indiana to Van Wert Ohio line, still waiting till later runs come out. Not wanting to travel too far south, but the Temps, and Dew points remind me of Feb 24 2007 cold core in Kansas, and Missouri

 

[Chip Redmond]

Seems the north will be under cloud cover much longer. Clouds breaking slightly here in southeast Ohio gives me hope for maybe a target further south. Cape values will be stronger (if you can say that about 500j/kg) along with a LI of around -2. Dewpoints and temps are still a little lower than I would like but that should change in the next hour or so. Going to sit and wait till 12z runs come in and make a final decision around 12.

Current temporary target is Lexington, KY


Chip