2/05/08 NOW: OK/TX/AR/MO/LA/MS/IL/KY/TN/AL/IN/OH

[Billy Griffin]

Ongoing convection seems to be increasing in intensity over SE Oklahoma. Already, SVR T-Strm warnings have been issued for several counties in Oklahoma as these storms race off to the NE.

Sadly, this looks to be the start of perhaps an historical day over much of the Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valley Regions!

 

[Bill Tabor]

02/05/08 NOW: TX,FL,GA,AL,MS,LA,TN,NC,SC,KY,VA,WV

Might as well get this started now. Obviously a potential big day with SPC calling a High Risk. I've been looking at Jon Davies tornado mask and it is bonkers over AR today. Lot of cells developing and streaming in central to eastern OK and I wonder if they will make AR any time soon. There are mesos showing on the OK City radar.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

New expanded high risk up into Illinois expected...that's rather interesting for this time of year, . Warm sector has broken clouds and cape values are nearing 1000 in pockets across the area, but there's still a lot of capping as well. I'd be watching the existing convection across E. OK as well for any type of outflow boundaries, etc. they could be pushing out. Right now things are looking quite scary for a number of states today.

EDIT: Everything is maximized in far SE Oklahoma right now, SBCape of 1500 with MLCape of 500 are there as well as some favorable shear. Sig. Tornado Composite is now at 3 in that area. Still got some work to do before a Tornado outbreak is realized in the High Risk Area...

 

[Buddy W Bradley]

Currently in Springfield, Mo. we have pockets of sun breaking out with a t62 and tdp59. I really like the storms over in Eastern Oklahoma, hoping they become more surface based in the coming hours. I think the area between Spfld Mo and Fayetteville Ar and West Plains, MO will be increasingly at risk into the afternoon hours.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

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[Karen Politte]

Broken line of storms in eastern OK is advancing eastwards with individual cells moving to the northeast. Right now the convection is looking typically messy with some additional stuff blowing up around McAlester OK. These storms will be moving into AR within the next couple of hours and appear to be maintaining their intensity. However, the ongoing storms and also new development in far SErn OK and NErn TX are elevated and likely NOT rooted in the boundary layer. It is still a waiting game to see if we can enhance energy as our shortwave kicks out over the next few hours and get something to tap into the low level juice/helicity.

Sfc low is located at the "three corners" region of OK, MO and AR and the front that it is dragging down behind it is through all but the southeastern quarter of OK and seems to be advancing into AR as planned with FYV's wind southwesterly with a Td in the 50s.

It is looking like we are indeed going to need the front to initiate convection as not much has formed out ahead of this main ongoing line w/r/t descrete cells. Of course it is early days yet - but hopefully it won't just be a big high risk mess. Hopefully we will get something pretty to look at ahead of the squall. There is a cluster of multi-cellular thundershowers north of FSM as of this posting but convective mode looks like crap.

Monitoring...

KL

 

[Justin Bailey]

the first tornado watch is now out for SE Ok, and SW Ar. I still feel like we are a little bit a way from having anything big go up. most of this convection looks like junk, but its starting to look better than it did earlier. i personally am keeping an eye out for any storms goin up around memphis or nrn MS that would move my way.

 

[Marc Remillard]

CAPE values are increasing to 2000 j/kg in southern LA. It looks like something is trying to initiate from Memphis, TN to southern LA... JF Massicotte and Allan Theunissen are reporting some nice updrafts near Memphis

 

[Billy Griffin]

Cells beginning to "pop" north of the Memphis area, and on into west Tennessee. Although they're small core cells and appear to be somewhat elevated, they should root nicely given the CAPE values as mentioned above. Wouldn't be surprised to see a PDS Tor Watch out for eastern AR, W TN, NW MS, and possibly up into SE MO / W KY in just a little while. Parents near Paducah, KY are reporting sun breaks and heating up quite nicely.

 

[cdcollura]

Currently checking data at junction of I-55 / I-57 east of Sikeston, MO. Convective showers going up on frontal boundary to my N as I am working my way slightly west.

It's now a matter of waiting for the shortwave to dig in...

 

[Billy Griffin]

Not too bad a looking cell just west of Ripley, TN (right along the MS River). Nothing overwhelming by any means, but it certainly bears watching. It's almost as if the shear is too strong at the moment, thus the storms are having a tough time maintaining themselves.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

If I were in the area I would be closely monitoring the area JUST SE of Little Rock, hints at some convection trying to get going (I wish there was less cloud debris to make Satellite easier to read). Appears the upper level support is just now beginning to nose into EC AR as evident per RUC Mesoanalysis once it reaches that area I would expect it to lite up. This area also appears to be on the nose of the strongest 850mb jet as well as on the nose of the theta ridge. Anything that can get going in this area will move NE towards the Memphis to Jonesboro area where even better low level shear exist.

 

[Brian Stertz]

My eyes are focused on NC Arkansas and C. Arkansas SW of Little Rock right now and what appear to be supercell seedlings showing up on LZK. Things will only get more and more interesting in the next 2 hrs. as the seedlings mature.

 

[Billy Griffin]

Maybe jumping the gun, but again, that cell west of Ripley, TN sure is catching my eye. It's small, it's pulsing, but it sure has a nice signature on radar and will be maintaining a path through some okay chase terrain into NW Tennessee. Dyersburg looks to be in the path of this cell... IF it holds together and continues to get its act going.

 

[David Draun]

Looking at SFC METARS around the region, I am seeing a lot of S/SW surface winds. This would favor more linear activity. There are some backed southeasterly winds in LA and AR. Might be a boundary there, we will see when it moves west. The best SE winds are in KY and southern MS at this time.

That cell near Osceola, MO now has a nice shape and discrete nature to it. Bears watching definitely.