2/05/08 NOW: OK/TX/AR/MO/LA/MS/IL/KY/TN/AL/IN/OH

[Jeff Snyder]

This is more of a pre-emptive note of caution.

(3) Prohibited content. Users may NOT post the following:
* Weather bulletins and forecast images, except as brief excerpts, in moderation, and with an explanation of their meteorological relevance;
* Links without an explanation of their meteorological relevance;
* Noise: posts containing only exclamations, salutations, witticisms, or personal anecdote (e.g. "I sure hope we get a storm. Bye!");

(4) Forecasts & Nowcasts forum. In the Forecasts & Nowcasts forum, we allow two types of messages, as follows.
* FCST is for discussing forecast aspects of severe weather that has not occurred yet, from now up to 7 days in the future
* NOW is for discussing forecast aspects of severe weather that is occurring right now or within the last 60 minutes (photos and third-party reports are allowed).

Remember -- if you are posting about the possibility of convection in your area, you should being using the FCST thread. If you are addressing convection or activity that is ongoing, you may use this NOW thread. In other words, is the meat of your post addressing FUTURE weather (if so, use the FCST thread), or is it addressing CURRENT weather (use the NOW thread)? If you are addressing the potential of a current/ongoing storm, then posting in this NOW thread would be okay. If you're wondering about initiation in some location currently devoid of convection, then hop on over to the FCST thread. There will only be this "overlap" time until we see more activity in the risk area (perhaps only an hour more if the convection near LZK takes hold).

In addition, please remember that this a forum, so some (usually short) posts may be better suited for a chat room than a forum. I know we can all get excited about this, but the forum works much better (and has less clutter) if people "save up" their thoughts enough to post a couple of multi-sentence or multi-paragraph posts as opposed to a myriad of very short (1 or 2 sentence) posts. This is not meant to discourage the posting of relevant information, but please keep the above-quote two rules in mind.

 

[Robert Rohloff]

E of Little Rock

Been sitting here east of LR finally seeing some blue sky break out off and on temps have gone up a bit to 75.

 

[Brandon Lawson]

Current radar is starting to show blips of convection breaking out in several areas over central AR. We're sitting here in Fair Oaks, at the intersection of 49 and 64. It appears that the cloud cover is starting to break up to a small degree as well. Will maintain our position for the moment, and adjust accordingly if needed. Better lapse rates and dewpoints are advecting northward from LA into central AR. I hope this is the beginning of the show here in the high risk area.

 

[Billy Griffin]

Surprised no one is mentioning this, but the DFW reflectivity is quite impressive indeed! The cells all appear linear, but at the same time, individually broken cells within the line. The "tail end" of this whole system bears attention as well. Looks like some good cores in all of those cells near and around DFW moving east/northeast. What's more, is that if you take a look at visible satellite imagery, NE Texas has maintained the best clearing out of the entire risk area, thus I would suspect better daytime heating ahead of this line.

EDIT: Lone cell over Murray, KY looks nice... might bear watching. Reflectivity has held its own and it has a nice structural signature on radar.

 

[Heidi Farrar]

If NE AR/SE MO gets any tornado warnings, KAIT-8 Jonesboro will run a live-stream. I'm posting this now because I could be in the field when/if this occurs. (I know, I always post this link! )

http://www.kait8.com/global/category.asp?c=4390

 

[Chris Wilburn]

The cell in Union county in northern Lousiana that is Tornado Warned is getting ready to go into some very impressive 0-1 and 0-3 helicity of 500 and 550 respectively as it crosses into Arkansas. CAPE of 1,500 is is in place in this area as well. This cell may encounter some higher LFC's than the environment it is in now once it gets into SE Arkansas, but they may lower significantly once it gets to this area. This cell bears watching for a very long time as the afternoon goes on.

 

[Kory Hartman]

Another PDS Tornado Watch issued for portions of 5 states. Severe Studios chaser Ben Holcomb is in the north-central portion of the new watch.

Ben is in Charleston, MO (bootheel) and is reporting sunny skies and a very warm 73 degrees. View his live position and live video at SevereStudios

 

[Chris Wilburn]

The tornado warned cell that just crossed the LA/AR border has turned into a monster. Tops near 50,000 feet and just about maxed out on VIL. Hail marker showing up at 4". It will be interesting to see what Mr. Adair and Mr. Grantham see when they get on the storm. Negotiating the Mississippi River crossing may be tricky. Nothing but a highly unstable and highly sheared environment ahead.

 

[Marc Austin]

The tornado warned cell that just crossed the LA/AR border has turned into a monster. Tops near 50,000 feet and just about maxed out on VIL. Hail marker showing up at 4". It will be interesting to see what Mr. Adair and Mr. Grantham see when they get on the storm. Negotiating the Mississippi River crossing may be tricky. Nothing but a highly unstable and highly sheared environment ahead.

I'm pretty sure this cell is going to be around for a while. It's moving into an area of 500+ SRH and the sig. tornado parameter in this area is also 5. If any storm is going to produce a strong tornado in the next couple of hours, I think this one will. With all the energy available, and no other cells to contend with, it has a good chance of surviving for a long time!

 

[Ken Johnson]

Brandon Clement is on the tornado warned cell in se Arkansas. He's currently near the Miss river, just across from Greenville, MS. He sees a nice meso and very low wall cloud with good rotation. Nothing on the ground yet.

 

[Marc Austin]

Officers in Ashley CO., AR are reporting a tornado on the ground and some apparent tornado damage had occured in the town of Hamburg, AR. Have you heard anything more from Brandon? Fortunately, it looks like this cell isn't headed for any larger cities at this point.

Actually, it appears the cell may head towards Arkansas City, AR, which is probably a sizeable town. Hopefully it dodges the town or the tornado lifts.

 

[David Draun]

Apparently the SE AR cell in question has produced a tornado already. Trained spotters reported tornado damage east of Hamburg, AR.

That storm is going to be a beast for sure. There is nothing of any significance developing anywhere near it, so it will have uncontaminated inflow for a very long time. There is a very nice rotation signature showing up on the SRV.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Per warning text, as well as strong radar indications a tornado passed at least very near the town of Jerome. This storm has strengthened significantly in the past 20 minutes. For those chasing it, best bet at this time is to stay East of the river and intercept on Highway 1 near the town of Scott, appears per spotter network a couple have tried to cross the river, and are probably going to find themselves to far behind the storm.

 

[rdale]

I don't think there was a tornado near Jerome based on spotter reports, just a thin "horizontal" funnel according to a chaser now on it. Blake looks to be about 10-15 miles southeast of it headed north on 1.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

I don't think there was a tornado near Jerome based on spotter reports, just a thin "horizontal" funnel according to a chaser now on it.

Thats good to know, in one of the warning's it stated Law Enforcement reported a tornado over Jerome... Kind of a vague description. This storm is now going to have to deal with convection firing to its ESE, will be interesting to see if it will be enough obstruction to the storms inflow to prevent it from gaining strength.