12/26/08 FCST: OK, KS, MO, IA, TX

[Greg McLaughlin]

Sitting in Tulsa waiting for show to commence. Still think best threat is just north of Tulsa up torwards Joplin later this evening into the overnight hours. This is the kind of setup that would appear to support tornadoes this time of year (i.e. 01.07.08 in southwest Missouri). It will be interesting to see how things transpire.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Hmmm, severe parameters (current analysis and RUC forecast over the next few hours) impressive over northeast Kansas, as surface winds look to be backing slightly. Upper level support looks to be encroaching, albeit slowly, towards this area. That cell just west of Olathe has a healthy development over the last 15 minutes and bears watching IMO. After the initial mesoscale discussion covering this area, interesting that there is no watch issued yet. Perhaps SPC holding off until closer to likely initation.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

The last few runs of the RUC forecast soundings continue to show the presence of a 700mb cap that appears to hold tight through the overnight hours. If this is true then I expect a quiet night until the front meets the 850mb moisture axis in central OK. At that point I would think the forcing along the front would overcome the cap and a squall line would quickly fire and become severe. If a storm somehow manages to fire ahead of the front this evening then I will be ready for it, however that window is closing with each passing moment.

 

[Jeff Richardson]

The most recent soundings from SGF, OUN, & TOP have shown a lot of dry air working it's way into the lower levels. Like others have mentioned, the recent RUC runs seem to be picking up on this as well. Convection is trying to get a start from SE of Tulsa to near Kansas City but isn't having much luck intensifying to a great degree. If anything in this area does break the cap, it might be quite a storm but as things look now, I think the cold front will likely be the major player late tonight.

 

[Chris Allington]

SPC coming out with a tornado watch for Eastern and South Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri. The stuff just around and north of MCK looks the most interesting right now. Lots of scattered echos ahead of that activity too.

EDIT: Theres a now thread started ATTM.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Convection quickly firing in eastern Kansas. CAPE values actually increasing over OK (500mb cooling combined with increasing 850mb moisture with Tdp over 13C). Shear profiles will continue to remain very strong overnight with low-level jet. If storms continue to build south into Oklahoma along the western edge of the 850mb moist axis and on the nose of the Theta-e ridge say from around Tulsa to Bartlesville we could be looking at a very serious scenario shaping up. A late night tornado (the night after Christmas of all nights) ripping through a town could be devastating. Lets hope no towns are hit tonight.