12/26/08 FCST: OK, KS, MO, IA, TX

[Simon Brewer]

I think Southwest Missouri looks like the best area to sit for this possible severe event; maybe around Joplin... The storm motion will be fast (~50 mph) and considering the setup for tornadoes at this time looks best to be at night as well, this possible severe event will be difficult to document.
The models aren't really picking up on it, but there is the possibility a surface-based storm could initiate before dark along the I-35 corridor in Central Oklahoma. Clear skies and a possible well-defined dryline could be in place by mid to late afternoon over this region. Also, cooling mid-levels associated with the approaching trough will make for modest instability and a weakening inversion. Any storms that would develop that early would most likely not get organized enough for tornado development until reaching the Stroud/Chandler area if not Tulsa or further north due to the very fast storm speed/motion; something to watch.

Even if I do decide to chase, I'll be sure to spend the early part of the day outside, because 70 deg Temps are hard to find late December in Oklahoma!

 

[Robert Rohloff]

I do not believe moisture will be the issue, when I started the shift last night at 2130 it was 50 with 46 dew at 0730 it was up to 64 with dew of 59 here in Tulsa.

 

[Shane Adams]

This is a classic SDS setup. Bad terrain, fast speeds, and darkness. Were it late May we wouldn't even be discussing this setup.

FWIW, the best area of instability and storm motion would be N Texas. Might be too far out of the jet streak to get a storm going, or it might get just enough of it to pop a storm and move it considerably slower than the mess further north and east...and with some actually instability to work with.

"Just because I can" isn't enough motivation for me to chase these off-season 'teaser' setups, so I'll chill out tonight, listen to the thunder, watch the radars, and celebrate my woman's b-day with her while the reports come in of heavy rain, no visibility, and whoever the chaser is this time that gets hit by a tornado.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

This is a classic SDS setup. Bad terrain, fast speeds, and darkness. Were it late May we wouldn't even be discussing this setup.

If it were late May, we'd be discussing how many dozens of tornadoes a system like this would produce

 

[AndyGabrielson]

People wouldn't be dicussing a 10% hatched area in late May? It certainly isn't an ideal setup, but it's December after all. I don't think it'll go linear immediately, however I do agree with after dark, bad terrain, and all those points. However IF I lived there, I would find myself watching this alot closer than I am.

 

[Tyler_Costantini]

We are headed out to NE OK after dark, It's looking nice i see NAM is snowing 1000 with a few small areas of 1200J/kg cape. Storm speed is going to be a pain but if they train it will be nice.

NWS SGF just did a brefing on the event, I guess its something that cant be found elsewhere its ok to post here.

http://www.tornadonerds.com/audio/20081226-KSGF-Confrence-Call.mp3

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

Tornado's Today?

The temperatures have warmed to 71-78 range with 65+ DP a few good storms looks likely. I like NE/OK- SE KS for a couple of tornado's later today into tonight.

 

[Shane Adams]

People wouldn't be dicussing a 10% hatched area in late May?

This wouldn't be a 10% HASHED in late May. It's gonna be primarily a wind event, but SPC is wisely erring to the side of caution due to (1) the fact this is late December and people aren't thinking about storms outside of the Gulf Coast region, (2) it's the day after Christmas, and most will be out all day shopping, and then retiring to much laziness and other 'normal' day-after-Xmas routine stuff and severe weather will be far down on their lists of concern, and (3) it will be NIGHT.

My point was that compared to typical, late-May timeframe setups, this setup is junk. It's junk anyway because of everything aformentioned, but it's the cock of the walk today because it's December 26. Maybe I've been doing this too long now

 

[Chad Cowan]

I'm still thinking Pittsburg to Chanute... check out this fcst sounding for CNU @ 3z:
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/sdg/KCNU_NAM_27.gif

If anyone in the KC area has a power inverter I can borrow today shoot me a PM. I left mine in Chicago and I really don't want to fight the crowds at Best Buy.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Here in North Texas there is an extensive cirrus canopy. Not really sure how thats going to effect things but should act to keep lid on things through the daylight hours.

 

[Jeff Richardson]

It's interesting to see these conditions for late December, but it's not unheard of. Being the day after Christmas and public attention focused elsewhere, the Tulsa media has picked up on the chance for severe weather and the Tulsa NWS has put together a multimedia briefing.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/cgi-bin/decisionmaker.php

I'm beginning to think that the early convection will develop in southeastern OK/northeastern TX during the early evening. Most of the interest will be later tonight and into tomorrow morning/early afternoon. I'll have the laptop next to the PC, relax, and watch from the comfort of home. This will likely be one of those noisy nocturnal events that once again reminds me I really do need to invest in new rain gutters.

 

[Chris Lott]

I'm going to hang out in N. TX tonight and hope something fires out ahead of the front and gets cranked up. NWS Ft. Worth is liking an area along the Red River from Gainesville to Bonham to Paris for an enhanced tornado threat over night. Don't know if it will happen down this far but still will be looking for a possible spinup. I'm not going to drive into OK but I still say the best parameters are in SE OK for tornadoes tonight. Good luck to anyone out tonight.

 

[Chris Allington]

I'm going to hang out in N. TX tonight and hope something fires out ahead of the front and gets cranked up. NWS Ft. Worth is liking an area along the Red River from Gainesville to Bonham to Paris for an enhanced tornado threat over night. Don't know if it will happen down this far but still will be looking for a possible spinup. I'm not going to drive into OK but I still say the best parameters are in SE OK for tornadoes tonight. Good luck to anyone out tonight.

The Red River Valley looks good so far. Looking at mesoanalysis shows about 1000 j/kg of surface based CAPE with decreasing CIN in a narrow corridor. LI's are pushing -5 just north of the area with siggy tors around 2.

If I was chasing I'd be somewhere between Ardmore and Gainesville with 35 giving a quick N/S option to get on something quick after initiation.

EDIT: Also, the dryline is fairly easy to pick out on surface obs with a 35 dp reported in Gage, and 57 dp in Enid. After holding back for most of the afternoon it should finally make some Eastward progress in the next couple of hours.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Actually the Northern end of the outlook area looks pretty ripe right now (area S of KC) the RUC hits at an area of enhanced theta-e and moisture convergence, an instability bulleseye is subsequently in the same area, 80kts at 500 coming in from the West and a 50-60 kt LLJ is providing for some sick shear. The RUC breaks out precip across the area in the next couple hours, I doubt storm mode will be favorable, but provided sick shear anything in that environment could quickly spin something up. If any of you are actually out chasing this I wish you luck, but unless it's in your back yard, I think your crazy, and not the good kind of crazy.

EDIT: Well looks like SPC picked up on it as well... New MD now out (I swear I didn't see it before typing this up)

 

[Chris Allington]

Actually the Northern end of the outlook area looks pretty ripe right now (area S of KC) the RUC hits at an area of enhanced theta-e and moisture convergence, an instability bulleseye is subsequently in the same area, 80kts at 500 coming in from the West and a 50-60 kt LLJ is providing for some sick shear. The RUC breaks out precip across the area in the next couple hours, I doubt storm mode will be favorable, but anything in that environment could quickly spin something up. If any of you are actually out chasing this I wish you luck, but unless it's in your back yard, I think your crazy, and not the good kind of crazy.

Right as you say that an MD is up for most of Eastern KS. Mentioning some spin ups due to the ehanced shear and low lcl's but mostly a hail/wind threat.