12/14 - 12/15 SNOWSTORM: GREAT LAKES

[Dan Robinson]

Moved down to Hickory, NC. A tad warmer down here, but still below freezing - and DPs are in the teens so still some room to come down a couple of degrees overnight. Favoring the higher QPF amounts down here as opposed to up north. They'll get ice up there in VA but it looks to be a longer duration event here that could be pretty intense.

(Mods, If this deserves a new thread, feel free to create it but I'm probably the only one down here)

 

[Robert Dewey]

It's all the same storm... I think it should be fine.

The NAM 00Z to 03Z QPF fields seemed to intialize okay. I did notice that it underestimated the backside of the precipitation shield over AR. At 700MB, vertical velocities are nearly non-existant over that area. All in all, I think the 18Z GFS actually had the best handle on what is currently happening QPF-wise.

Otherwise, I did notice a slight jog eastward in the NAM QPF fields compared to the 12/18Z runs... But we're only talking <25 miles at best. NGM QPF fields nearly identical to its 12Z run. Guess we'll have to wait and see what the GFS and WRF models show...

 

[Caleb Lawrence]

Lightly flurried yesterday in the late afternoon, but no accumulation. It's been snowing since about 4am today that I know of, and two to three fresh inches have fallen; and still coming down quite liberally. It's large, sticky wet snow as of the moment. Traffic on I-75 is slowing down occasionally. Under a winter storm warning; and as such, 4-7 inches are forecasted to possibly fall by later this evening; ending the winter storm warning at 7pm (as of the latest forecast; subject to change).

I must say, good job at spotting this one out in advance, Tim.

 

[Tim Gonyo]

Thanks Caleb!

 

[Robert Dewey]

Picked up about an inch in the past hour here near Detroit, and it's snowing moderately to heavy as of now...

I think the 12Z NAM is still a tad too far east... For the second run in a row (not including the 06Z run), it has the back edge of the precipitation field too far east. National mosaic shows heavy snow expanding across most of IN and western OH -- headed north/northeast. The latest IR loop also shows very good cloud growth across IN/OH/western MI... WV loop shows what appears to be a "baroclinic leaf" signature in the more advanced stages. The NAM forecasts the notch of dry air (located near southern IN/KY) to pivot northeastward just to the south/east of MI later this evening / early tonight. Given that, I think the snow is here to stay for awhile, and wouldn't be surprised to see warning criteria snow as far west as LAN...

I suspect the pivot point for all of this precipitation will be near PHN (Port Huron, MI) or perhaps a bit further northeast.

 

[rdale]

We're still not accumulating any here or in Jackson at last check either...

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by rdale
We're still not accumulating any here or in Jackson at last check either...

Too warm, or what? Temps currently creeping up towards 32-33F here, which is kind of worries me. METAR analysis shows temps getting quite a bit warmer the farther west you go (i.e. towards LAN/GRR).

We're now at 3.0 inches... It's VERY heavy / wet and sticking to everything. Some locations near mine are already at 4 inches, particularly a bit further northeast.

15Z RUC keeps things going in the far east until 03Z... Things will taper from southwest to northeast I believe.

 

[Robert Dewey]

The snow is winding down now... We ended up with around 5.5 inches after compaction. The snow is VERY wet... I'm guessing snow to liquid ratios are less than 8 to 1. I'll probably go grab a sample just to see how much QPF actually fell. EDIT: Liquid to snow ratios were on the order of 6 to 1... Giving us a grand total of 0.90 inches of QPF.

Our snow depth is currently 9 to 11 inches... And if that sticks around, it will be the most snow on the ground prior to Christmas that I can remember (not saying much, LOL). Hopefully we can keep this snowpack and get another two good snowstorms before any significant melting... The deepest snowpack that I can remember was back in January of 1999... Towards the middle of January, I recorded a snow depth of 28 inches - roughly just under waist deep (the "Blizzard of '99" dropped 13 inches, with a couple 6 inchers after that). Most of it melted off after January.

What we REALLY need is a storm like this:

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by rdewey

What we REALLY need is a storm like this:

No, what you really want is this:

That was the funnest Halloween ever! Though the Twin Cities did have record cold temps for the couple of days following the snowfall; it was mighty cold!

 

[Robert Dewey]

That would be nice...

It just always seems like MI gets the short end of the stick (measuring stick? LOL). The biggest synoptic snows always seem to fall across MN/WI or IN/OH. (discounting nor'easters, mountains, etc..). For example, I can search up plenty of case studies for MN/WI that produced very widespread 12-18 inch storm totals. Just this last year, parts of IN/OH received ~30 inches from a "one-two punch" event (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ind/Dec22_23_2004SnowEvent.gif).

A "big snowstorm" in MI is a few places recording a foot (that happens ever couple of years)... Anything over 14-15 inches is unheard of away from the lakes... And anyone reporting over 20 inches would be laughed at by the NWS for submitting false reports :lol:. Looking at records from various NWS offices, Detroit hit 19 inches back in the mid 70's, and 25 inches with 12 foot drifts back in 1886 (QPF was 2.50 inches liquid - pretty solid drifts)...

I wonder if there's a reason for all of this? The average snowfall for most places in MI and MN/WI are pretty close...

 

[rdale]

No idea what we ended up with... I'd guess around 2-3" but it all melted on contact with the roads. Just a smidge of slush, so a "hit" prediction-wise but a "miss" impact-wise.

 

[Joel Wright]

Originally posted by rdewey
...It just always seems like MI gets the short end of the stick (measuring stick? LOL)...

I hear ya there. We always seem to get ripped off here too. It seems that every storm system misses us, at least the last few years anyway. I can't remember the last time I saw a snowstorm deposit over 6" of snow here.

I know one thing, these moisture starved systems depositing 2-4" of snow are getting boring.

I've only seen two really good snowstorms in the last ten years. Number one on my list would be Jan '95 which deposited 15" of snow in less than 12hrs with thundersnow. Number two would be the New Years storm of '99 which dumped a foot and a half on us in a two day period.

 

[Chris DeRosier]

I was (and still am) living in Duluth for that storm in 1991. I'll remember that for the rest of my life! Thundersnow with the same intensity as a severe thunderstorm, and cars buried to over the roofs. Amazing!

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jeff Snyder)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-rdewey

What we REALLY need is a storm like this:

No, what you really want is this:

That was the funnest Halloween ever! Though the Twin Cities did have record cold temps for the couple of days following the snowfall; it was mighty cold![/b]

 

[Chris DeRosier]

Well, here this week we received about 15 inches from this storm. Now this AM we have lake snow with another 3-6 inches expected. I measured 5" this morning already.

I can't keep up with all this snow, you should see what my yard looks like. Scary!

 

[Robert Dewey]

Here are the totals from this massive event over MN:

MINNESOTA...

TWO HARBORS..............26.3 INCHES 735 AM EST THU
SILVER BAY...............20.3 INCHES 545 AM EST THU
WOLF RIDGE...............18.7 INCHES 700 AM EST THU
BEAVER BAY...............17.0 INCHES 1058 PM EST WED
BRIMSON..................16.5 INCHES 545 AM EST THU
LAKEWOOD.................14.5 INCHES 1200 AM EST WED
DULUTH NWS...............15.8 INCHES 1200 PM EST THU

They really got hammered... I think they got alot more than what was originally expected...