12/25/06-12/26/06 FCST: Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley (WINTER PRECIP)

[Nick Parker]

Figured I would bite the bullet and start a FCST thread.

Anyhoo, I've been watching this one for a few days now. GFS seems to be the model of choice at the moment. Local NWS is highlighting the possibility of being a larger event than the GFS is forecasting. (PAH AFD) Chances for an accumulating snow look better with every new model run. Any ideas on the QPF/snow ratio for this one?

 

[Nick Parker]

Well, changing again.

The 00Z GFS is much less aggresive with the overall phasing of the northern and southern stream energy, which results in a disappearance of the closed 500 MB Low as the GFS was previously forecasting. Also showing a lesser quanity of moisture to the west. However, in a funny note, the 00z and 06z NAM runs have come in stronger, with more moisture than earlier, yet still show warm surface conditons for around here.

If these hold true, could be inch or so around here. Nothing to get too excited about due to fairly warm ground/road temps.

Still some uncertainty in it all so will just have to see how the 18z/00z runs go.

Merry christmas to all out there!

 

[Robert Dewey]

SREF cyclone tracks are quite a bit further west on the 09Z run versus the 03Z run. Intensity doesn't really look all that different between the two runs...

It looks like the models aren't phasing the northern/southern stream energy efficiently, which is causing the system to appear elongated and disorganized. If we could consolidate all of that vorticity into once central system, we'd likely see a bomb wrapping up through the Ohio Valley. Not sure if the models are too weak with the phasing, but they all seem to be in agreement. That's what's currently making me lean away from an Ohio Valley and Great Lakes snowstorm. Still 24-36 hours before the system really starts "taking shape", so the models could continue their weakening trend, or catch onto better phasing. We shall see over the next several model runs...

 

[Brett Adair]

Well, we bit the dust as we were looking for some possibility of snowfall here in the deep south with a phaser, but it wasn't meant to happen just like it never does here in Alabama. I would say that things will be mostly rain in this area....and even most of the OH Valley region is seeing rain on the OBs.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Yeah - this is looking like a dud now. There is no snow anywhere on the wraparound side, save for one station reporting a mix in northern Indiana. The mountains here may be the saving grace, with temps the needed few degrees colder above 2,500 feet and the added kick of upslope. Even then, this system is racing out - only a couple of inches at best to look forward to up there tomorrow. Time to just wait for the next train down the line.