• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

12/25/06-12/26/06 FCST: Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley (WINTER PRECIP)

Joined
Dec 24, 2004
Messages
126
Location
Southern Tip of Illinois
Figured I would bite the bullet and start a FCST thread.

Anyhoo, I've been watching this one for a few days now. GFS seems to be the model of choice at the moment. Local NWS is highlighting the possibility of being a larger event than the GFS is forecasting. (PAH AFD) Chances for an accumulating snow look better with every new model run. Any ideas on the QPF/snow ratio for this one?
 
Well, changing again.

The 00Z GFS is much less aggresive with the overall phasing of the northern and southern stream energy, which results in a disappearance of the closed 500 MB Low as the GFS was previously forecasting. Also showing a lesser quanity of moisture to the west. However, in a funny note, the 00z and 06z NAM runs have come in stronger, with more moisture than earlier, yet still show warm surface conditons for around here.

If these hold true, could be inch or so around here. Nothing to get too excited about due to fairly warm ground/road temps.

Still some uncertainty in it all so will just have to see how the 18z/00z runs go.

Merry christmas to all out there!
 
SREF cyclone tracks are quite a bit further west on the 09Z run versus the 03Z run. Intensity doesn't really look all that different between the two runs...

It looks like the models aren't phasing the northern/southern stream energy efficiently, which is causing the system to appear elongated and disorganized. If we could consolidate all of that vorticity into once central system, we'd likely see a bomb wrapping up through the Ohio Valley. Not sure if the models are too weak with the phasing, but they all seem to be in agreement. That's what's currently making me lean away from an Ohio Valley and Great Lakes snowstorm. Still 24-36 hours before the system really starts "taking shape", so the models could continue their weakening trend, or catch onto better phasing. We shall see over the next several model runs...
 
Well, we bit the dust as we were looking for some possibility of snowfall here in the deep south with a phaser, but it wasn't meant to happen just like it never does here in Alabama. I would say that things will be mostly rain in this area....and even most of the OH Valley region is seeing rain on the OBs.
 
Yeah - this is looking like a dud now. There is no snow anywhere on the wraparound side, save for one station reporting a mix in northern Indiana. The mountains here may be the saving grace, with temps the needed few degrees colder above 2,500 feet and the added kick of upslope. Even then, this system is racing out - only a couple of inches at best to look forward to up there tomorrow. Time to just wait for the next train down the line.
 
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