12/11-12/13 FCST Midwest

[Robert Dewey]

Jackson, MI has been reporting a mix for the last two hours... with several sites reporting "unknown" precipitation types. I'm not sure how they detect precip type, though. http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/sur...on=dtw&endDate=20101212&endTime=-1&duration=0

 

[Robert Dewey]

Dry slot punching northward as the earlier HRRR had suggested. However, the 0z models (including the HRRR) only show this making it into SW MI before pivoting, with redevelopment across eastern MI as the low continues to phase and pull NE. However, the NSSL WRF isn't so kind and pretty much erodes the current precipitation shield across the majority of S MI.

 

[Robert Dewey]

1100 PM SNOW 1 SW SHEBOYGAN 43.74N 87.73W
12/11/2010 M3.4 INCH SHEBOYGAN WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0.85 INCH OF MELTED LIQUID.

If that's accurate, ouch. I'm starting to question the warning across southern MI away from the lakes / lake effect event. That dry slot is really ripping north. The models do show the TROWAL lighting up tomorrow with nearly an inch of QPF across NW OH between 12z and 0z... RUC pivots this into SE MI as a second comma-head develops / first one redevelops. Will be interesting to see how this plays out, but my confidence in meeting warning criteria across S MI isn't great at the moment.

 

[jshields]

here in omaha, we were definitely affected by the southward shift. forecast went from .5" snow and 50% chance snow today to winter wx adv to finally a blizzard warning issued. although to most people here in town and outside of town the blizzard warning came a bit late with how bad visibilities were. i officially recorded a 54.8 mph wind gust on my weather station at 310 pm and wind gusts were consistently 40-50 mph since about 1 pm!! the temp dropped from 45 at 3 am to 15 at 7 am. visibility even here in town was bad and they didn't issue the blizzard warning until after 5 pm this evening. interstate 29 north of town and I-80 east of town have been closed. in the end we ended up with 3-3.5" of snow. really would have like to have been in up in the twin cities though, consistent 17-20" totals all over

 

[rdale]

Anyone who develops a model that handles Great Lakes snowstorm dry wedges will be rich HRRR did okay at picking it up, but still dumped a lot more snow than actually fell. Fortunately the winds will make people realize this is still a big event!

 

[Robert Dewey]

It's snowing moderately here right now just east of KPTK, and the flake size has increased dramatically. We've picked up about 1.5 inches so far. After looking at the models and radar, I could see areas east of LAN picking up another 4-5 inches. Most models have today's QPF bullseye across NW OH, but that's not verifying too well on radar at the moment.

 

[rdale]

I've noticed the NWOH thing and have not understood it from the beginning... The pivot point remains over southern lower so while I have some fears, I think my forecast from yesterday will still pan out.

Just got in from 500 feet of sidewalk snowblowing. The southbound trip was fine - the northbound return SUCKED.

 

[rdale]

Has anyone found METAR verifications of blizzard conditions?

 

[John Wetter]

Has anyone found METAR verifications of blizzard conditions?

Do mean verification today Rob? There were plenty of sites yesterday.

 

[rdale]

The overnight period -- I was just hunting for stuff from Wisc / northern MI and not seeing any with the ones that I checked. I know your hood got it

 

[Robert Dewey]

This snow is extremely wet, at least here where I'm at. It seems like it's compacting about as fast as it's falling. The bush in the front yard is completely crushed under what looks like only 2-2.5 inches of snow.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Has anyone found METAR verifications of blizzard conditions?

DeKalb, IL (KDKB) has been pretty darn close the last several hours. Visibility was been wavering between 0.15 and 0.25 miles with sustained winds right at, or just a clip short bouncing around 32-36 mph with gusts in the mid 40s.

KCMI just recorded a 52 mph gust, but not much snow falling in that part of eastern IL.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Just went out and measured: 3 inches of snow on 0.30 inches of liquid... so we're running at about a 10:1 ratio.

 

[John Vandehei]

Storm was pretty much a dud here in the Kalamazoo area. Got about 2 inches at best as of 4:30pm. Most of that snow was pretty wet and has plastered itself and stuck where it fell, which should limit how much snow can blow around. Snow directly related to the storm itself should move out of here in about two hours. That will just leave the lake effect. Looking at the models, wind directions will mainly be from the north or just west of north, which would keep lake effect snow confined to the lakeshore or maybe just offshore if there is no westerly component. If anything, I think the counties in northwest Indiana will take the brunt of it. However, with the strong winds, LES will be stretched farther south. Usually in a near due north wind flow, Lake and Porter counties can get some serious snow, over a foot or more. With the stronger winds, additional snow totals should stay well below that in Indiana.

 

[Robert Dewey]

We're up to about 4 inches now, and it's blowing like crazy, even being heavy and wet. Wind gusts are up around 40-45mph.