12/11-12/13 FCST Midwest

[Robert Dewey]

Can't wait for the 0z models to come in. I'm anticipating the southward trend to continue, hopefully in line with my predicted track, which is fairly similar to the 18z GEM. That's a compromise between the farthest south solutions, and the clustered 15z SREF which shifted southward from the 9z. I love this stuff.

 

[Brandon Copic]

Can't wait for the 0z models to come in. I'm anticipating the southward trend to continue, hopefully in line with my predicted track, which is fairly similar to the 18z GEM. That's a compromise between the farthest south solutions, and the clustered 15z SREF which shifted southward from the 9z. I love this stuff.

yeah I've noticed a more of a southward track lately, and I am sure happy for it I'm 16 and I sure want school off on monday! blizzard like conditions possible too, it looks very interesting, hopefully we are able to maintain our power though! Our Local Mets are sticking with a 1-3" range....I am disagreeing with that....

 

[Ben Kossow]

Can't wait for the 0z models to come in. I'm anticipating the southward trend to continue, hopefully in line with my predicted track, which is fairly similar to the 18z GEM. That's a compromise between the farthest south solutions, and the clustered 15z SREF which shifted southward from the 9z. I love this stuff.

The models have been trending south so I agree that the next model run will be key to the ultimate final forecast. MKX has been hedging bets all week and this afternoon's AFD and HWO were really no different.

Your track is somewhat south of the NWS forecast, yes? So -- as I thought -- sitting here in Waukesha, WI we're certainly not out of the woods in terms of heavy snow.

Certainly a chance for ground blizzard conditions around here Sunday too with gusts as high as 40.

Wild weekend on its way.

 

[Chance Metz]

Out here in northeast Ohio they are expecting about a foot of now. It looks like mainly rain toamrow night and a change to all snow by noon on sunday. That would make me tend to believe that we may have 2 to 4 inches on sunday afternoon and a whole lot more through the middle of the week due to mosture wrapping around the backside of the storm. If they keep moving the track of th low south though it might all be snow. On a side note I have rarely seen the NWS issue a winter strom watch 2 days before a storm.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Your track is somewhat south of the NWS forecast, yes? So -- as I thought -- sitting here in Waukesha, WI we're certainly not out of the woods in terms of heavy snow.

The latest NAM has your location pretty close, or within, the 10-15 inch range. Model QPF is tricky, but it does look like the heaviest band has shift from N WI / UP of MI southward to C and S WI. The 0z NAM track has shifted another 50-75 miles south of the 18z forecast. It will be interesting if this is still the farthest north solution. If the other models come in further south as well, I'd give my track more weight.

When I made that track forecast, I basically centered it between the farthest north solution (NAM) and the farthest south solution (UKMET), generally in line with the 12z and 18z Canadian.

Impressive to see this much of a difference between two model runs 6 hours apart, and only 30hrs out!

 

[Robert Dewey]

NAM initialized the surface low at around 1002mb, but as of 13z it's currently around 999mb. Not much deeper, but it does add interest. I'm still sticking with my track; however, it might actually track slightly further north on the west end, more toward Aurora IL and Gary IN.

Snowfall totals... I'm not sure where to begin. I'm thinking around 10 inches N of a line from Madison WI to Detroit MI, as the 500mb vort dives SE, dropping off along a line from Minneapolis MN to Indian City MI.

 

[rdale]

I see a lot of meso-banding setting up, so I'm comfortable with 3-6" for my area but advising my listeners that double that is not out of the question...

 

[Robert Dewey]

Keeping my eye on that dry slot... 11z HRRR really punches is north. GFS and GEM are also a bit weaker with their QPF fields on the 12z as well, although maintaining a similar track to the 0z runs.

850-500mb mean RH @ 2z SUN:

 

[Bryan_Knitter]

NWS has been changing out snow range all day. First it was 2-4, then 3-6, then 4-8, now 4-10 with a blizzard warning from midnight to 6pm Sunday.

 

[rdale]

NWS has been changing out snow range all day.

What is your forecast?

 

[George Widener]

Looking like around 12" for us here in Oshkosh with a blizzard warning in effect. Was pretty nice for most of the day, temps hovered around 34F...about an hour ago it started snowing "angrily" and is now coming down really hard with some gusty winds. Even though we are about 50 miles inland from Lake Michigan, the east winds will certainly bring a bit of lake enhancement to the table...
I took some good snow measurements at the start of the event so I will continue to update our totals throughout the storm. Not as fun as chasing an MCS, but you take what you can get sometimes.

 

[Chris Carter]

Is it me, or has the storm seemed to have stalled some while its deepening?

 

[rdale]

Doesn't appear to be changing at all, minimum pressure the last 12 hours has been around 997mb. Now the center is approaching the LOT office, just about on track and schedule.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/grb/maps/GRBMeso_MSLP_Analysis.gif

 

[Tom Van Kuiken]

For what its worth (9:15) we just switched over to wet snow. Several hours ahead of schedule.

 

[Alex Vainer]

Also for what its worth, wet snow at LOT.