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12/08/2009-12/09/2009 Winter Storm

  • Thread starter Thread starter Michael O'Keeffe
  • Start date Start date

Michael O'Keeffe

The GFS has now been quite consistent bringing in a potential winter storm over much of KS, MO, into the Mid Mississippi Valley next Tuesday and Wednesday. The models continue to show a stronger more pronounced system moving across OK and AR allowing plenty of moisture and lift to create favorable conditions for heavy snowfall accumulations across C/E Kansas and much of Missouri not to mention the very cold temps at the surface and 850s. At this time the heaviest snow looks to affect areas along I70 from C Kansas east through the KC metro into C Missouri and S Illinois. If we can get this storm to continue on the currently forecasted course the folks here in the Kansas City metro could be in for a major snow event.
 
Its looking like an ok setup for me. I may be too far north of the system (for now) to get anything significant (correct me if i'm wrong). Some of the runs are showing a 979mb system?! That would make for a pretty big storm! If it turns out, the biggest of 2009 so far
 
I have been watching this storm for the past few days and GFS has been a little persistent with it. It was hinting at a trough building in the west and a shortwave ejecting into the plains but had trouble placing it. Last few runs this morning were consistent putting the track through central Texas and ejecting northeast much like how this latest storm moved. Putting the heaviest snow across much of Kansas into Missouri but was rather quick.

Looking at the 18Z GFS, it has slowed the system down and brings the track a little further north tracking it across Oklahoma, this has not changed the location of the snow band, but if it stays with this, it would mean more snow than what it was originally predicting. The problem now with this is how far the cold air will sink into this storm, Kansas could be looking at a significant snowstorm or icestorm.

From what i can see, it looks like enough moisture could work into this system to produce up to 12-16" from Great Bend to Topeka KS.
 
Remember this is the same GFS that had last night's system (which went from Memphis to Buffalo) as riding up several hundred miles to the east of that track -- and was quite consistent. Don't get too particular in the detailed locations.
 
Here is the latest disco from the ILX NWS. Hoping we get some significant snow out of this...I have a school full of teenagers counting on that! :p

THIS STORM TRACK HAS BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN THE RECENT MODEL
RUNS...SO POPS WERE HELD OUT OF THE LIKELY CATEGORY TUESDAY
AFTN/NIGHT. THE GFS TAKES A LOW WELL SE OF IL...WHILE THE ECMWF
TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF OUR CWA. HIGHLY DIFFERENT
OUTCOMES WOULD OCCUR IN EACH CASE. FOR NOW...WE TRENDED WITH THE
ECMWF...AND KEPT A BROAD MID CHANCE POP EVERYWHERE TUESDAY AFTN
AND TUESDAY NIGHT....WITH LINGERING POPS WED MORN. IF THE GFS
SOLUTION PANS OUT...A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CWA FROM RUSHVILLE/JACKSONVILLE TO BMI DURING THAT TIME.
Click to expand...
 
GFS1.png


GFS2.png


Well it looks like that track has shifted a little further N in your favor.
 
This is certainly shaping up to be an interesting system to watch. That's for sure. The models should handle this system (in theory) a lot better than yesterday's system since this one won't be two storms phasing into one. Since it's still 5-6 days away there will likely be some fluctuations with track/timing though.

Very cold arctic air will be available for this system, so it will be a whole different animal when compared to yesterdays storm. GOM moisture and associated warmth/baroclinicy could develop a very powerful storm somewhere over the middle CONUS next week.

Since the EURO and UK are in agreement that a fairly potent storm is on the horizon for next week I'm a bit more optimistic than I was when this storm was advertised on the GFS.
 
The track keeps shifting...I would LIKE to see more consistency. But, this far out I think it is hard to get. At least most (all?) models are showing a potent storm coming in. Where and how much snow you get is the question. Its definably something to be watched over the next several days. Possible blizzard for some?
 
Last edited by a moderator:
rdale said:
Remember this is the same GFS that had last night's system (which went from Memphis to Buffalo) as riding up several hundred miles to the east of that track -- and was quite consistent. Don't get too particular in the detailed locations.
Click to expand...

Agreed - it will be interesting to see how the GEM handles this.

It looks like it's on board, but as you said, I wouldn't get too caught up in the exact track right now... other than to say "someone east of the Rockies MIGHT get a snowstorm." Pretty broad, but that just goes to show the variability possible at day 6-8 (hell, even day 1-2 for that matter).

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data...th@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg
 
Looks like the GEM has a bad handle on it. It develops in the low in Wyoming, then takes it east across the NEB/KAN border and then northeast into Wisconsin. That is the farthest northern track i have seen any of the models have for this storm. But you guys are right, won't really know too much more until it comes onshore.
 
Chris Carter said:
Looks like the GEM has a bad handle on it. It develops in the low in Wyoming, then takes it east across the NEB/KAN border and then northeast into Wisconsin.
Click to expand...

Not sure what link you're grabbing it from, but it takes the low at F132 over the OK/KS border to near STL at F144.

In any case - the GEM ensemble says "Don't even think about worrying over tracks"

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data...4_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_144.png

Notice a few of the ensemble members even have high pressure centered right on top of where the rest have a strong low!

Best bet for hi-res Canadian is at http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/vizaweb/vizaweb_home_e.html

Ensembles at http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/vizaweb/vizaweb_home_e.html
 
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