HAltschule
EF5
The latest models and atmospheric setup favor squall line development during the day Friday with the likelihood of a Derecho/Widespread Damaging Wind event. Sufficient instability with MUCAPES ofr 400-900 J/KG, strong low level forcing and incredible vertical shear as high 75-90 knots in the 925-500mb layer should provide for an extremely volatile situation on Friday. As the strong cold front moves across PA and NY tomorrow morning/midday, it will encounter this instability and a large severe squall line (low topped) should rapdily develop into Central NY and PA. This is one of those situations where just about any convective shower or thunderstorm should transport strong, gusty winds to the surface. I do believe that the stronger parts of the line will be able to generate wind gusts of 60-80mph quite easily. In addition, whenever convection nears the Hudson Valley, it is normally enhanced by the South-Southeast surface wind up the valley and this many times causes supercell or isolated tornado threat enhancement.
A check of the latest SWOD2 shows 45% chance for severe and talk of an upgrade to Moderate Risk.
A check of the latest SWOD2 shows 45% chance for severe and talk of an upgrade to Moderate Risk.
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