11/5/08 FCST: IA/MO/AR/E. KS

[Matthew Fischer]

Well I just made my decision for 2008, i'm going to chase in November. Maybe the last chance this year til my chasecation in may. Target for the time being is between Fremont down to Lincoln to I-29, in NE. Have to pay the northern play since I'm in Chicago. Going to be leaving in an hour or more. Depends on when Adam Lucio and Danny Neal get here so we can all chase. I missed the June storm here in Chicago and missed the August stuff too. I'm not going to miss this. So the jet is going to right in the area, dews are somewhat there. But with the south winds in place already there shall be a nice moisture tongue there. Time to get other things ready.

 

[Mark Farnik]

The SPC Day 1 Outlook is out and it looks somewhat promising. There is mention of the potential for tornadic supercells, but this is tempered by the fact that the storms will not remain isolated for very long because of the strong low level convergence and large scale ascent, which will force the development of a squall line fairly quickly.
Looking at the Skew-T chart for KTUL (Tulsa) at 03Z tonight, it shows 1400 j/kg of CAPE, a 3 km EHI of 4 and SRH of 395, with a somewhat respectable hodograph and backing S/SE surface winds veering to SW at 850 mb and W/SW at 500 mb.

As of this time, it looks as though there will be about a 2 to 3 hour window of opportunity for several discrete tornadic supercells along and ahead of the dryline. I wouldn't be surprised to see a cluster of 6-10 tornadoes across portions of north central and northeastern Oklahoma into far southeastern Kansas late this afternoon and evening, roughly in an area bounded by Edmond, OK/Wellington, KS/Elk City, KS/Okmulgee, OK.
But these tornadoes will likely occur right at or just after dark, and this setup's chaseability is going to be lessened even further by storm motions, which will be northeast at or in excess of 45 knots.
Not exactly what you'd call an optimal setup...

I'm definitely sitting this one out - my SDS isn't bad enough to justify making a 1,500 mile excursion for a fast moving marginal nocturnal event like this. I'll put the gas and motel money I would have spent on this chase towards buying a new HD camcorder in a few weeks

Best of luck to all those who choose to go out today - have fun keeping up with those storms

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Looking at the 6z WRF it is showing the dryline further west than it has been the last few runs keeping Wichita in the warm sector through 00z and keeping the cold front back towards Great Bend at that time. I am still liking today's chase op so my dad and I will be leaving later this morning for somewhere between Wichita and Ponca City.

Good luck to everyone chasing!

 

[Adam Penney]

I will also be heading out within the next hour or so to get into position for today's chase. Agree with Michael that the dryline may hang a bit further west, so will head for ICT and then check things out from there. 10% hatched tornado from SPC is certainly promising for a chase day in november. With gas prices at $1.85, I cant pass up this oppurtunity!

 

[Mike Smith]

For planning purposes, gas prices in ICT are $1.97.

Be safe today and good luck.

 

[Chris Lott]

SPC is going to upgrade to a moderate risk for the areas of NE OK and SE KS. It looks like Ponca City might be a pretty good spot after all.

 

[Angie Norris]

I'm still thinking the best chance for daytime storms is going to be central OK. Granted, yes, there will probably be tornadoes up north, but that is going to be after dark...which gets here about 5:45pm or so. The best dynamics are holding back until after 0Z...the dryline doesn't even come through until around 6Z.
WRF and RUC are both breaking out precip in the 21-23Z time frame in central OK and is lining it out by 0Z. Adequate moisture and CAPE should be in place. Shear is quite nice this morning...just look up . We've got surface winds out of the SE and lower level clouds are riding quickly out of the SW.
I still like the area S and SW of the OKC metro for daytime convection. For after dark, Ponca City could be a good place to be.

 

[Mark Farnik]

Son of a... of course, since I decided to not go out after this, it's now evolved into a very tasty looking Moderate Risk setup. My target area I outlined in my earlier post (Edmond, OK/Wellington, KS/Elk City, KS/Okmulgee, OK) is right in the center of the 15% hatched area for tornadoes. Grrr...

But despite that, I'm still somewhat ok with my decision. It would have been a royal b**** of a drive to get down to central OK from Denver and I would have been absolutely dog tired by the time I got down there, and adding in the fact I don't currently have a video camera, having just given my 'old' video camera to my younger sister for a birthday present on Sunday with the expectation that I wouldn't need a video camera until late February so it really wouldn't have been a fun chase for me anyway.

Sigh. Should have just gone out...

Best of luck to all who are out and about, and I look forward to seeing some nice November tornado footage from y'all!

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Holy crap! I'd say there's a good chance of stronger long lived tornado today in northeast OK, especially after dark. The RUC now shows a secondary 1000 mb surface low by Woodward by 00z which really helps back the surface winds, and it shows up bigtime on all the forecast soundings. Tulsa shows 555 m2/s2 SRH at 06Z with 1,300 J/KG CAPE. RUC pops what looks like 2 supercells southwest of Oklahoma City by around 21Z, so if I were out chasing today (and I'm about to kick my own ass for not going), I'd want to be out by Chikasha by 21Z and follow everything northeast.

:edit: the only inhibiting factor is mid level cloudiness over central/eastern OK, which reinforces my notion of heading southwest where it's clear.

 

[ABlaser]

I too will be heading out today, am liking the upper wave now entering SW KS at 11am. looking more likely that initiation could occur as early as 2pm. will be stationed in arkansas city. and when the storms blast by --i can hit the casino --storms and slots = a good day.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

A lot of the parameters I like to see will be maximized according to several models in a SW to NE trajectory along I-44 in central Oklahoma. I'm thinking that we should get a storm or two to pop along the dryline in the next 2-3 hours in a moderately unstable environment. If the secondary surface low forms in NW/WC Oklahoma as projected, winds will be locally backed in this area and will enhance the low level shear. Dealing with the metro will be an issue, so it makes the target area rather undesirable for that point alone...either way I fully expect to see a few tornadoes across C/NC Oklahoma and SC Kansas today.

FWIW the record for Tornadoes in Oklahoma in a day (in Nov) is 11 set on November 17, 1958. There were three F3s and six F2s on that day.

EDIT: I want to add that I much prefer the hodograph shape in Central Oklahoma compared to areas further north. The PNC hodo is that dreaded "s" shape, which I have never had any real success with.

 

[ABlaser]

i think you meant record for a day IN NOVEMBER...since 5/3/99 is 11 x 6.

FWIW the record for Tornadoes in Oklahoma in a day is 11 set on November 17, 1958. There were three F3s and six F2s on that day.

.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

If a storm goes through the atmospheric environment at Tulsa by midnight tonight, things could get ugly. 3Km EHI is 5.1!

http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace.cgi?model=NAM&fcsthr=018&STATIONID=KTUL

 

[Chip Redmond]

Storms finally popping west and north of OK city along the dryline. Dewpoints finally in the low 60s out ahead are going to help new storms rapidly develop. The next hour should be very interesting.

Chip