11/5/08 FCST: IA/MO/AR/E. KS

[Mike Hollingshead]

I'm getting the feeling there isn't going to be any cold core setup with this system, though yeah, lots of time yet for it to lock onto something with one.

Interesting seeing the 0z runs of the ECMWF now as well as Canada's GEM model. Both have a hell of a big trough with similar nice shear over a large region.

Now the 12z NAM is in and it is quite similar to those two. Hopefully it can stay as little 'cold-fronty' as possible. It's a bit of a banana low on there now. That and keep the front from moving too quickly east, as the steering flow as it is should get storms off it once they fire.

Edit: 12z GFS definitely looks less cold fronty/banana low'ish.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs078hr_sfc_mslp.gif

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

I would definetly like to see something like the 12Z gfs play out. The backing East of the sfc low has me liking the Yankton area (maybe just WNW) on this run, its interesting the GFS is progging >1000j/kg over a large portion of Central SD by 18Z just East and North of the sfc low along the NE stretching WF. Were the GFS to verify I would have some confidence in the possibility for a couple of decent storms just into SD stretching S into NE...

 

[Andrew Stoller]

The 12Z NAM even looks good for as far south as central KS along the dryline and it doesn't look too cold fronty at all. 1,000-1,500 J/kg CAPE, a few pockets of 60+ degree dewpoints, winds back slightly by 00z, aiding in decent helicity and directional shear. It's nice that the models are slowing the system down a bit which is making it look better/more dynamic.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I'm with Andrew. I think area of real interest is SC KS from Hutchinson south towards KS/OK border. Very sharp dryline, some 60F tds, nice CAPE values and the shear is obviously there as well. I think there is potential for this setup to really do something nice especially from extreme S South Dakota all the way south into far N Oklahoma. So all in all if the 12z WRF verifies I likely head towards SC Kansas to play the classic dryline.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

The 12Z NAM even looks good for as far south as central KS along the dryline and it doesn't look too cold fronty at all. 1,000-1,500 J/kg CAPE, a few pockets of 60+ degree dewpoints, winds back slightly by 00z, aiding in decent helicity and directional shear. It's nice that the models are slowing the system down a bit which is making it look better/more dynamic.

Maybe c KS south it doesn't. SD though NE into KS it does. Not show ender but a bit cold fronty, with wnw or nw winds behind the front. Through the day from 18z-0z you can see the sfc low elongating and weakening.

Everything looks great, it's just that tendancy/look that is of some concern. If it happens like that I could see a similar day to June 11, 2008. Messy line of embedded sups to the north. GFS just looks more promising over a big area. Even at that, 12z NAM still has a sure chase day.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Looks like the firing line will be along or slightly east of a Kearney NE to Russell KS to Alva OK to Altus OK line by Wed. afternoon (if the 00z ETA is to be believed). The dryline looks like it may be able focus supercells as the strong ascent moves northeast from W.Kansas. Shear looks like it will be decently strong and who knows on the instability forecast. Certainly could see the first supercells firing from C.Nebraska down into NC/C Kansas...with later development by evening south of I-70 down into NW Oklahoma. Looks like a good slight risk set up to me...but my opinions may change if more instability looks to align along the dryline a litle better. Tornadoes a possibility even on this latest ETA forecast.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Given a storm I would prefer the further south target in western Oklahoma.

JWG 0z via NAM


CNK in nc KS ain't bad either

If I had to guess now I'd wind up in nc KS....and quite possibly upset about not ending up in sc KS. Of course now the 0z GFS is the one leaning more cold fronty than the NAM. Pointless still at this point, but damn it's going to be hard to wait and not get excited over the next 4 runs.

What could be interesting if something like the GFS pans out would be possible snow with the same system in areas it produced the severe weather and any tornadoes if they happen.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

I have to agree that NW OK would be my favorite spot right now based off of the 0z NAM. Every time I have chased a setup with such great shear but such low instability I have busted completely. If a storm could really get going near Alva I could see some tornadoes late in the day, when instability is at it's greatest, but I just haven't had enough luck on my short time chasing with similar setups to get excited yet.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I think staying in an area to intercept north or south might be a good idea for Wednesday. In other words, don't commit too far one way or another. As of right now, and it will change, I like the area between Wichita, KS and Enid, OK. Say the area near Caldwell, KS which is a few miles NE of Wakita, OK. I think the better moisture and instability will be a bit better in that area. From the NAM perspective, it looks to bring Td of 60 or so east of the dryline along with CAPE of around 1500 and possibly higher. Obviously, daylight will be a problem this late in the season but I will sure keep my eye on things as the possible event gets closer.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I think staying in an area to intercept north or south might be a good idea for Wednesday. In other words, don't commit too far one way or another. As of right now, and it will change, I like the area between Wichita, KS and Enid, OK. Say the area near Caldwell, KS which is a few miles NE of Wakita, OK. I think the better moisture and instability will be a bit better in that area. From the NAM perspective, it looks to bring Td of 60 or so east of the dryline along with CAPE of around 1500 and possibly higher. Obviously, daylight will be a problem this late in the season but I will sure keep my eye on things as the possible event gets closer.

GFS is forecasting less cape with values of 500-800J/Kg and convections starting by 00Z. I trust more Wrf model within 72 h and so far south central
Ks is a very good option. Moreover I wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado or two in Colby-Wakeeny zones.

 

[Rodney Price]

There's still some slight timing issues between the NAM and GFS. The NAM has the cold front aligned from northcentral through westcentral Kansas with the dryline east of there by 00Z THU. The 12Z GFS is much faster, with cold front overtaking the dryline right along the I-135 corridor by 00Z THU. If the GFS is right, the potent dynamics and lift, along with unidirectional flow just scream "linear". We'll see what happens.

 

[Chris Allington]

There's still some slight timing issues between the NAM and GFS. The NAM has the cold front aligned from northcentral through westcentral Kansas with the dryline east of there by 00Z THU. The 12Z GFS is much faster, with cold front overtaking the dryline right along the I-135 corridor by 00Z THU. If the GFS is right, the potent dynamics and lift, along with unidirectional flow just scream "linear". We'll see what happens.

I tend to agree with the NAM because all too often the GFS doesn't realize the depth of the low and seems to want to push things a bit too fast. Its done it a couple of times this season with the big upper lows over the rockies. If I could go Wednesday I'd be checking things over morning of and seeing how far I needed to get south into KS.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Looks like the firing line may be a little further east than I thought, and a maybe not get rocking until at/after sunset. I like the target showing up around Medford OK the best. Just far enough away from squall-linesville and very near a dryline/cf intersection. Not too much overbearing ascent and just the right convergence. After dark...it begins to look more interesting in the Wichita-Emporia KS area if the MesoEta is right. Shear gets pretty strong and could see some bows/lewps going on as the wind fields strengthen. Tomorrow could be a sneaky tornado day if things can cut loose by 4pm instead of 6-7pm. Agree with Jason's target 110%.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I just looked over current dewpoints and comparing them to model forecasts, and it appears the NAM is a little too bullish with dewpoints while the GFS looks to be more in line with current trends. I think the tornado potential is still up in the air for WED (talking about southern target OK/KS), but if the cold front doesn't overtake the dryline early on we might see a few photogenic LPs.....assuming the updrafts are strong enough to survive the shear.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Well I wouldn't call this a bust yet. The moisture appears to be an issue right now, but we have 48 hours for the moisture to get up here and with low 60s in southern Texas already the very strong south winds we are expected to see tomorrow and wednesday I wouldn't be surprised to see at least low 60s over portions of the region (OK/KS). The GFS also shows the moisture over a higher region of the atmosphere from 0-30 km. While the NAM shows the lowest 0-2km which always tends to be a bit more moist. However if you look at the NAM's 0-30 km dewpoint map you will see it is nearly identical to the GFS except a bit further west and it isn't as cold front looking. Just a thought.

The main problem I see is initiation after dark, but a tornado is a tornado after dark or not. How many times can you chase with gas under $2.00? Not much in this day and age, so if there is a decent to good shot of some tornadoes, which appears likely I'd go for it. But that's just me.