11/24/10 NOW: KS,OK,TX,AR,MO

[Mike Smith]

Tornado watch issued for the Four States region.

Thunderstorms developing between Stockton, MO and CFV with two mesos at the moment. The best helicities are over southwest Missouri.

There are three cells from I-44, south. My suspicion is that those will be the first candidates to produce a tornado as they look like they will be out ahead of the main line and will have a little better instability.

 

[Mike Smith]

Strong meso 5 mi. north of Stockton, MO. This one is starting to show signs of a hook.

update: 3:22pm SGF radar shows classic hook. Tornado warning issued.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

Sitting here in Chouteau, OK right now and plenty of things are truing to fire off but the speed shear is just too much for them and they are getting knocked over before really being able to do much. I really don't have the time or money to head N and E so I will stay here and try my luck.

CAPE on the SPC mesoanalysis page is still around 1000j/kg near me and the HRRR has stuff going up to my west before 00z. There is still a good southerly wind here as well. If we could just get a storm going to the SW of my position I do not see why it wouldn't be able to preform well here at my target.

Stuff on radar shows storms slowly starting to fire closer and closer to me so hope is not all lost.

 

[Jesse Risley]

Storms in SW MO appear to be firing INVO of the warm front, which is providing ample shear and ambient backed winds in its immediate vicinity, while surface winds back further to the south remain more SSW.

I would suspect that the TOR warned storms on the northern flank of the activity near KAIZ and KGLY (blitzing along at 70 mph) will eventually outrun the better dynamics and begin to get etiolated, though the storm near Stockton appears to be moving slightly more east of NE. Effective bulk shear values AOA 70 kts are sitting INVO the convective activity that remains over far NE OK, where more favorable MUCAPE values (app. 1000 J/KG) remain juxtaposed with slightly higher shear parameters.

 

[Mike Smith]

Hook and strong rotation 8 mi. SE of Blackjack MO moving rapidly ENE.

It's moving toward Humanville, Weaubleau, Hermitage and Pittsburg.

 

[Jason Bolt]

Visually the storm that went TOR warned near Stockton was pretty anemic. I followed it from near Pittsburg until it outran me just as it went warned and I really never saw anything other than a ragged non-rotating wall under a pretty weak base. I'm with Bart, it seems the speed shear is tearing towers down before they can really get going. Now droppping SW along the line hoping things will change. It's really my only play at this point. Now sitting just north of Picher, OK waiting.