11/14/05 FCST: E. OK/SE. KS/ARK

The GFS is really pointint to severe outbreak of storms Mon after 00Z in the fcst region. Very strong cold front out of Canada will be quickly tracking SEWD during the day Monday. The tail end of Sat. cold front will rapidly retreat NWD out of TX as a warm front on Mon bringing w/ it deep low level Gulf moisture. Depending on the amt of moisture return, this could be a very busy day in the threat area.
As far as vertical wind shear goes, I would think that w/ a retreating warm front, and a fast moving cold front, there would be sufficient shear at the triple point to warrant rotation. If thats the case we would be dealing with nocturnal supercells.
This fcst is strongly dependant on amt of mositure return Mon. If moisture return into the threat area is sufficient for supercell formation, then a mod. risk might be warranted.

Any thoughts
 
I'm thinking it might pan out, but there are a few conditons to be met.
1. The retreating warm front must make it far enough north, with the return moisture before the cold front overtakes the area tomorrow night. Otherwise, it will be a squall line event (with the cold front) and not much else.
2. Along with that warm front, there needs to be some sufficient daytime heating to add to the instability.

Right now, dewpoints in northern Arkansas have fallen off into the high 30's over the northern 1/3rd of the state. Searcy's dew is around 50, thanks to the rain early today. Dews in south Arkansas are in the mid 50's to the mid 60's. The cold front that slowly made its way through the state today has pretty much stalled out over the SE 1/3rd of the state. Right now (7:46pm CST), Union County is under a severe t'storm warning due to a hail / wind threat.
Storms seem to be firing up a bit around the Arklatex region.
I could be wrong but it seems like SW and central Arkansas may get the lion's share of the severe weather tomorrow.
 
Elevated convection is now occuring along the warm front boundry as it slowly moves north. A nice heavy shower with some thunder crossed over about 20 minutes ago. All of the convection is heading northeast around 40 mph. Winds in my area are out of the SE. South of the I-40 corridor, east of Little Rock, temps and dewpoints are coming up in value (60 and higher), indicating that the warm front has recently pass through the area. The warm front hasn't pushed up to my area (Searcy) yet but it should within the next 3 or 4 hours. Aside from the warm front advancing north, there are clusters of showers and storms traveling up the I-30 / US 67-167 corridors.
Temperatures in SW Arkansas are now in the upper 70''s with mid 60's dewpoints.
 
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