11/08/05 FCST: Great Lakes

User beware regarding nocturnal CAPE forecasts from the NAM. The current code in the NAM model is *not* actually from a surface (2m AGL) based parcel. It is, in reality, a 70mb AGL most unstable cape.

Ouch, thanks for that bit of information. I guess that answers my previous question of why SFC CAPE is so high, yet surface parcels are only 55/50F at 9-12Z tomorrow morning. I guess the best scenario for convection would be development just to the south of the warm front, where it's still able to take advantage of all that shear yet ingest some of the unstable air. While that inversion is rather shallow in depth, it's fairly strong.