Not sure whether that southern jet is enhancing or deterring upper level support for a severe breakout. Contrasted with last Saturday's setup, where base of negatively-tilted upper trough dug all the way down through central plains, creating massive environment of ascent downstream, we have a more-or-less zonal jet undercutting the northern jet trough along the northern tier. With the hint of some erosion of CIN over IN, IL, and MO, possibile the upper diffluence/exit region of the southern jet may yet set the stage for initiation over this area, where severe parameters have been building over the last few hours. RUC keeps wanting to break out precip, very tentatively, across E MO and IL. Deep-layer shear is supportive of supercells across the region also. Now, despite hopes for the consolidation of a warm front and development of a "triple point", note that surface convergence remains very ill-defined. In summary, fairly nasty November weather over the Great Lakes looks like a given, but initiation of supercells across the heartland looks very touch and go at this point.
