10/9/05 FCST: Tropical Storm Vince

Jason Toft

Vince has formed!

More than that, it has formed in a very rare spot, climotologically. It formed off the NW coast of Africa, NNW of the Azores, I think. (I'm not up to date on my islands)

As the thread in the Weather Lab has noted, the NHC has the storm, through a 3-day track, heading NE towards Portugal and Spain. They have it being absorbed by a front before getting close to land. I'm inclined to think the same way.

Vince is now a hurricane. :shock:
Estimated sustained winds: 75 mph
Estimated minimum central pressure: 987 mb
Satellite presentation pretty decent for this little oddball, with small ragged eye within small circulation. Vince is going to accelerate northeastwards and start to weaken in about 6-12 hours. The NHC calls for Vince to be completley absorbed by the front in 48 hours, however I think there is a chance Vince could reach the northwest coast of Portugal as a minimal T.S. before it is absorbed due to his rapid acceleration and fairly close proximity to the coast. The weirdest thing is is that Vince formed over 73-75 degree waters! How weird is that?
Now we await Wilma (who may be trying to form from the remnants of S.D. 22 southwest of Bermuda)
And if Alpha follows on the heels of Wilma, 2005 becomes the most active hurricane season on record.
It is almost probable that it will occur.
This is insane! How the hell Vince formed over such "normal" water? But its just amazing, I have never seen a hurricane track on the Europe maps! 8)


Maybe someone of you have any statistics about hurricanes or tropical storms so close to Europe? Thanks!