10/27/05 FCST: Tropical Storm Beta

This unbelievable season continues as Tropical Storm Beta forms just off the coast of Nicaragua according to the 5am advisory. Max winds are 35 kts. Sea surface temps of near 30C, light shear over the region and weak steering currents will likely keep Beta over the warm waters for at least another 36hrs.

I think there is a fair chance that this could reach minimal hurricane strength before landfall somewhere near Bluefields Nicaraugua by tomorrow evening. By far the biggest story will be the flooding..in places that were severely affected only a few weeks before in Central America.
 
Geez, this is rediculous.

[hijack]
Say um, anyone remember that Beavis and Butthead episode where Beavis kept saying Nicaragua?

Funny.
[/hijack]


ok back to TS Beta....
 
Originally posted by Rocky Rascovich

I think there is a fair chance that this could reach minimal hurricane strength before landfall somewhere near Bluefields Nicaraugua by tomorrow evening. By far the biggest story will be the flooding..in places that were severely affected only a few weeks before in Central America.

I think there's a fair chance should could be Cat 2 or Cat 3 by landfall. Strengthening has been rather slow today, but conditions appear favorable for more rapid intensification tonight and tomorrow. I'd think cat 2 is the most probable landfall intensity right now, though I'd go with Cat 3 IF she begins a cycle of rapid deepening.
 
Couple excerpts from my blog on what I think Beta could do. I'm generally liking the NHC official track forecast.

Will likely go with the more reliable intensity forecasts here and throw the rest out for now. SHIPS is taking this to 103 mph and the 18z GFDL rockets it to 135 mph. It should be noted that the GFDL was about 12 hours too early with current intensification trends which, when adjusted, would put a landfall intensity at about 105 mph. The GFDL indicates that Beta should remain relatively poorly organized until perhaps an eyewall replacement cycle will take place before landfall in the 00-12Z Sat timeframe. This could allow for a massive drop in pressure and could catapult intensity higher than expected

Standard pressure to wind conversions for anything in under 25ºN latitude and not in the GOM for what the GFDL is spitting out is 105 mph, lending for a moderately high degree of confidence at this time.

History

The last hurricane with winds under 130 mph (as Beta should be) to hit Nicaragua was Hurricane Cesar in 1996. It's maximum winds were only 80 mph but it caused heavy rain which led to mudslides and 51 deaths total. Hurricane Joan in 1988 was infamous and caused $840 MIL US in damage although it reached category 4 status with 145 mph winds. The next one after that was another Category One hurricane in 1971 - Irene. To find a landfalling storm before Irene in Central Nicaragua you would need to go back to 1941 with hurricane #4, which made landfall as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds...the only one sort of comparable to what Beta should be capable of. Thus the Nicaraguans have little experience with hurricanes in general, much less storms like Beta and thus the potential danger is quite high.

My forecast landfall intensity is approximately 110 mph at this time...but this one could be pretty erratic. I'm pretty confident in a nice eye becoming established tomorrow night which could allow for a rapid drop in pressure before landfall.

...Alex Lamers...
 
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