TRACK FORECAST
This will be important in determining final intensity and I will explain why below. For my forecast I leaned GFDL and NHC with a landfall around Charlotte Harbor, FL and Port Charlotte, FL. I think the advancing Central CONUS trough will be a little slower than the GFS/UKMET would indicate and as a result a more gradual recurvature. Plus I think that with Wilma exploding in the next 24-30 hrs that it will take more to recurve it than what the weaker intensity forecasts of the GFS/UKMET would indicate.
INTENSITY FORECAST
The intensity forecast still has a lot of spread, but it appears likely that Wilma will make a landfall as a hurricane along the current official NHC forecast track. Right before landfall time, most models off the 18z runs were cloistered with an intensity AOA 84 knots (96.6 mph or a low end Cat 2). The vast majority pegged an intensity between 94 and 102 knots (108-117 mph or borderline Cat 2/3). I have long preferred the GFDL as the model of choice for hurricane intensity forecasts as it does the best in simulating the actual dynamics. It shows 102 knots at landfall which is a low end cat 3 storm but also takes it to cat 5 intensity several times during Wilma's life cycle, which seems unlikely but is possible.
http://argo.colorado.edu/~realtime/gifs_tm...sh/gmt.5270.gif
The Gulf Loop Current is an important factor (seen in image link above) that cannot be discounted and oceanic heat content will be quite high, acting like high octane fuel for Wilma. Based on my track, it should encounter that high octane fuel up until about 12-18 hrs before landfall. UNLIKE Rita and Katrina, which moved out of warm eddies farther away from land, and were slower moving, this storm will be moving into a cooler eddy very close to land and accelerating which should mitigate some of the subsiding of the intensity. Thus a substantial decrease from its intensity in the base of the Loop Current off NW Cuba seems somewhat improbable. As was proved with Rita and Katrina so far this year, that Loop Current can lead to RAPID intensification far ahead of the curve of most model's intensity forecasts.
However, it must also be noted that shear will likely be decreasing in the strait between Cuba and the Yucatan as Wilma arrives, providing an arresting probability of rapid intensification with little to no mitigating factors. This would be 30-42 hours out from landfall. Then I would expect to see a levelling off as shear gradually increases to the northeast with deintensification in the 12-18 hrs prior to landfall with the combination of increasing wind shear and a shallow cool eddy in the nearshore environment. The jet streak providing the shear will be exiting the Gulf around the time Wilma arrives, so despite the likelihood of some increasing shear, it may not be as substantial as some predict.
Latest GOES-12 derived mid-upper level water vapor winds show a trifecta of well defined outflow channels dominating all quadrants. Wilma is over some very warm water and thus it would seem plausible that we could see a rapid increase in intensity over the next 24 hours...and I am thinking we could have another major hurricane on our hands by tomorrow evening.
Thus I'm looking at possibly a Cat 4 when it passes by the tips of the Yucatan and Cuba with inner core dynamics and structure maintaining a major hurricane intensity at least until the day of the landfall with a likely landfall as a Category 2 or a Category 3. I'm thinking something in the triple digits for wind speed. 100-120 mph for now. Extrapolating NHC trends on their intensity forecast, mine is centered slightly higher at the moment...based on the fact that I think intensification may be underplayed by the majority of the models up for consideration.
IMPACTS
Category 2/3 type storms normally catch people off guard and after Rita failed to live up to the fabled level of Katrina (although I think everyone was happy about that)...some people may think we got our disaster out of the way for the year. A surprisingly strong storm could have bad consequences for an area still recovering from Charley!
EDIT
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS FALLING RAPIDLY... AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.
FORECASTER BEVEN
Looks like my pegged rapid bombout was right on. Look for it to continue. I may need to adjust up if this continues but we'll see what the 11 pm advisory says.
...Alex Lamers...