10/15/05 FCST: Hurricane Wilma

[Pat Lawrence]

Originally posted by B Ozanne
This thread has been awfully quiet. We might be looking at a landfalling category 5 hurricane tomorrow. We all know the US stats on cat 5 strikes, does anybody know about Mexico?

Also, if anybody finds a link to the Cancun radar please share. I know they have radar down there.

In addition to the above link...Digital Atmosphere from www.weathergraphics.com can now import and display radar images for Mexico, Canada, and Australia. Keeps a person from having to search all over to find the radar sites

Pat

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Basically, as of 0835z Friday (holy crap, I'm going to sleep right now!) I see no reason to change my forecast track in any way...at least prior to the FL peninsula landfall. Looking at how Wilma is actually behaving (moving NNW/N and staying just offshore Yucatan)...and given the piss-poor performance of the models with Wilma...I'm sticking to my guns. Wilma should be picked up and begin accelerating to the ENE/NE later today or Saturday -- with a WC FL coast landfall late on Sunday. Beyond that, I don't think the threat to New England is nearly as high as it was previously, but, as I mentioned above, the models have been crappy and inconsistent up until this point so I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

::rubs eyes sleepily and finally heads to bed::

 

[Simon Brewer]

Way to go Sam, because models have been so indecisive (yeah, I know the models are merely a collection of equations) in the track of this hurricane the best thing to do is go with your own intuitions!

Models are now stalling this thing over Mexico.....interesting to see how long it sits there, eye is about to be completely over Cozumel, Mex.


Simon
www.stormgasm.com

 

[Charles Kuster]

Wilma has slowed down and basically made landfall in the Yucatan (about half of the eye was over land). Wilma also appears to be weakening as it interacts with land. I think Wilma will make landfall in south Florida between Sarasota and Everglades City (still hard to say, but most likely between Port Charlotte and Marco) as a category 2. The WRF model strengthens Wilma to a cat 4 before landfall, but I think this is very unlikely. This model has not been very accurate with intensity plus there will be shear and dry air in the gulf that will probably weaken Wilma, not allow it to strengthen. Good luck to anyone chasing.

EDIT: (10/23/05, 2210Z) It looks like Wilma will hit a little further south. Probably between Ft. Myers and south of Chokoloskee (in the Everglades). An exact landfall point might be Naples or Marco. It does not look like the shear is going to weaken Wilma much if at all anymore before it makes landfall in southwest Florida. I think it will probably make landfall as a strong cat 2 or a weak cat 3 (105mph-120mph).

 

[B Ozanne]

Just trying to get some discussion going here. Any opinions on the upcoming New England "near-miss?" Some of the intensity models are pretty impressive right up the east coast and any shift in the track could get the forecasters panicking.

The GFS now spins up an impressive nor'easter just as Wilma passes by.

And lets not forget about Florida. Wilma is now borderline cat 3 with improving satellite presentation.

 

[MClarkson]

well with all the models keeping the center offshore, and with new england on the weak side, im really not expecting much. It will be a big maritime problem though, if the GFDL veries at ~955 mb and cat 3 winds near the grand banks.

 

[B Ozanne]

"The Grand Banks are no joke in October."

Buoy data will be fun to watch. As will Mount Washington as they are expecting a significant snow and wind event.

Don't forget that the wind field should be greatly expanded as Wilma passes by offshore. But yes, a landfall looks slim for New England.

 

[Geoff Boyle]

In anticipation for the remnants of hurricane Wilma, Environment Canada has issued weather warnings for the entire province of Nova Scotia. Similar warnings have also been issued for 2 counties in New Brunswick. It looks like both provinces will be slammed pretty hard. Flooding will probably be the main problem. High winds are expected to exceed 110km/h.