• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

12/28/07 FCST (Winter WX): CO/TX/KS/MO/IA/IL/MI

Joined
Jul 23, 2004
Messages
497
Location
Iowa City, IA
A moderate winter storm will bring a few inches of new snow to most areas of eastern Iowa beginning early Friday morning. Below are forecasts for specific locations followed by the discussion.

Cedar Rapids:
Snow will start at 5:00 AM Friday. Expect a total accumulation 3.0 inches before the precipitation winds down during the afternoon.

Iowa City:
Snow will start at 3:45 AM Friday. Expect a total accumulation 4.0 inches before the precipitation winds down during the afternoon.

Marengo:
Snow will start at 3:30 AM Friday. Expect a total accumulation 3.5 inches before the precipitation winds down during the afternoon.

Coggon:
Snow will start at 5:10 AM Friday. Expect a total accumulation 2.5 inches before the precipitation winds down during the afternoon.

Synopsis:
The recent active WX pattern will continue as one system exits the Upper-Midwest and an upstream system is taking shape over the SWRN CONUS. Latest MDLS, SFC OBS, and WV imagery all indicate that the H5-H3 system is verifying about 50 mi N then earlier depicted or anticipated. Subjective 00Z UA analysis indicates 110kt H5 streak rounding base of deepening trough over SRN NM. H5 height fall bulls-eye of 150m was located over NM, indicating substantial digging with little EWD motion. A 40kt LLJ is developing over ERN TX, and this will serve as a NWD moisture transport overnight as H85 dewpoints climb to -4C over ECNTL IA and the column quickly saturates by 10Z. The SFC system is taking shape over the SRN high plains with disorganized low-pressure centered W of AMA at 02Z along a sharp baroclinic zone. Further N, widespread light snow is now falling from ERN CO into the TX panhandle in an upsloping regime.

Discussion:
Moderate to strong forcing, possible isolated convective elements, and decent moisture availability will be offset by rapid storm movement, which will help to keep snowfall totals at bay. The system will be a fast mover, with the H85 low initially tracking slowly EWD along I-40 near AMA between 00 and 06Z, and then quickly accelerating to the NE during the morning hours. The H85 low will be centered over MCI by 12Z, and then 50 mi SE of DVN by 18Z. This brings a line parallel to and 80 mi NW of the H85 track right along I-80 in ERN IA during the late morning hours. Concerning the SFC solution, the GFS is somewhat of an outlier, which takes the strongest H8-H7 UVM between 12-18Z too far S, and will lean towards the NAM, ECMWF, UKMET, and NGM. The consensus takes the SFC low along a path from ERN MO to CNTRL IL into SRN MI.

For the most part, the precipitation should be broadly forced. However, the latest mesoscale MDL trends have indicated some weak H7 frontogenetic signatures along with a moderate thermal gradient, with regions of instability possible above that layer. Verification of such would result in localized heavier snowfall totals. Latest trends have also suggested stronger lift in the dendritic growth layer as compared to previous MDL output which showed less dendritic UVM and snow ratios. PROGS indicate stronger QG convergence and ULVL PVA as a the left-exit region of a 120kt H5 speed max ejects from the base of an increasingly negatively-tilted trough. From 12 to 16Z, impressive isentropic lift is noted on the 280-285K SFCS, and a weak TROWAL feature is indicated on the 290K SFC, both of these features strongest between 50 mi S of I-80. Regarding snowfall totals, the Garcia method was investigated using the 285K SFC, this supports 12hr snowfall totals in excess of 5 inches between I-80 and US-30 in SERN IA, with lesser amounts to the N and S. Looking at NAM QPF, 0.3 inches is indicated, while the Cobb algorithm suggests 12:1 to 14:1 ratios.

Looking ahead… In the wake of Friday’s system, the ULVL pattern will transition towards an increasingly zonal flow as H85 WAA spreads into the upper-Midwest and return flow commences at the SFC.

- bill
[FONT=&quot]8:55 PM CST, 12/27/07[/FONT]
 
NWS GRR has been going 6-8" for Lansing but I'm thinking 2-MAYBE 4... Doesn't look to be that strong of a system to pull out major numbers like a half-foot!
 
Since this event's not really worth starting a whole other thread (reports) on, I'll just post my report in here...

As of noon I measure 5.3", and still snowing moderately. Probably another hour or so of decent snowfall left before it pulls away. I've been lucky enough to be stuck in the best snowband for the last several hours, so it has piled up here much more than I figured it would. Most of the models gave all of NW IL .25-.30 QPF, but with the snow to water ratio at 10-12:1, I'm guessing we've surpassed that QPF forecast rather easily.

Anyway, the snow is exceptionally wet, and since the wind is damn near calm it's been sticking to everything. Here's a few pics I just snapped...





 
6.3" as of 1:20pm local time. Just about to quit, so this will probably be the total. Last I heard (noon), Moline officially reports 5.4", so they've probably got about the same as me. According to the 88-D storm total image, just south of me got a bit more. Probably 7-8" there. Definitely a "surprise" little storm system.

Kind of nice to get more than expected, instead of the other way around lol.

Here's my picnic table (with a limb on the ground next to it from the first icestorm)

 
Just finished up with 1.8 here on the south side of Chicago, not really snowing now just large-crystallized flurries falling. Water content in this snow is pretty high. Wasn't really expecting much to begin with in this area.
 
Snow's done here:

IMG_1089.jpg
 
NWS GRR has been going 6-8" for Lansing but I'm thinking 2-MAYBE 4... Doesn't look to be that strong of a system to pull out major numbers like a half-foot!

3 in Lansing, all the higher amounts were up north of GRR and only a few counties saw the 6-8" range from north of GRR over towards Alpena.
 
our snow

dec 07.jpg

this is my first attempt to add a picture..I hope it works..

this was our snow last night, in mid-michigan.
 
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