10/15/05 FCST: Hurricane Wilma

[Chris Nuttall]

Well, it's official. CAT 5 and 892mb pressure. This is an awesome meteorological event. Let's thank our lucky stars that this is over open water.

Now that I'm over my shock, I still think this will weaken to a cat 3 before it makes landfall in Florida. I still think shear from the trough that will kick Wilma east will help erode the storm some before landfall.

Here's hoping I'm right.

 

[B Ozanne]

Anybody see the 06z GFS and GFDL? Both are forecasting a track up the east coast with landfall again between Long Island and Maine. The GFDL puts it at a cat 3 just before landfall in New England. This is a 120 hour forecast so its kind of dreamy, but the possibility is there.

Who knows what is going to happen when the models get to initialize this storm at 882mb.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by B Ozanne
Anybody see the 06z GFS and GFDL? Both are forecasting a track up the east coast with landfall again between Long Island and Maine. The GFDL puts it at a cat 3 just before landfall in New England. This is a 120 hour forecast so its kind of dreamy, but the possibility is there.

Who knows what is going to happen when the models get to initialize this storm at 882mb.

I'm hoping for two things with this storm:

1) It get's absorbed into the trough, bombing out over land, OR
2) We get to see some sort of Fujiwara effect between the closed low/trough over the Great Lakes and the tropical storm / hurricane

It will be very interesting, especially with the trough pulling down quite a bit of cool / cold air - perhaps another "Perfect Storm" (tropical/subtropical hybrid).

 

[David Wolfson]

Yesterday afternoon I had a post all ready and pulled it because it had too much alarm and too little hard evidence. But what it said, and looks to be possibly the case is that Wilma is looking very much like she's going to pull a Donna. In 1960 Donna crossed Florida as a major hurricane and accelerated rapidly up the east coast and into New England.

The sort of digging Midwest trough being progged historically tends to draw a tropical cyclone up the coast like a moth to a flame in my observation. Perhaps it has to do with the interaction between the developing baroclinic system and the warm water/warm core system -- a perfect cork in a "perfect storm" environment. I dunno.

Anyway the 06Z GFS Bill mentions progs W. exiting FL Saturday night and busting the south shore of MA thirty hours later! :shock: This is almost 1200 miles straight-line distance meaning an average speed of almost 40 mph! Folks, that's a 1938 Hurricane disaster scenario.

And... no kidding. W. is progged to stall and spin extra-tropical somewhere in the Gulf of Maine off Portland. Yipe, a nightmare scenario. I pray this does not happen.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

What is up with the 12z GFDL. It shows Wilma taking a westerly track into the Yucatan far enough south that the trough doesn't pick it up. It meanders over the Yucatan/NW Caribbean for the entire forecast period. Hmm...thats quite a change from the 06z run...

The 12z GFS is trending towards a slower approach to FL and further south -- into the Keys at 114hr.

Thd 12z NOGAPS is very much in line with what I have been thinking up until now, which is a close approach to the Yucatan coast and a landfall on the FL peninsula in the general vicinity of Ft. Meyers. It furthermore races up the east coast and appears to begin to phase with a low over the OH/PA/NY region. That would certainly interesting if it materialized.

The 12z UKMET is in line with the NGP in a landfall over SW FL, but keeps it a safe distance from the coast of New England as it races NE.

Overall, I will continue to side with the UKMET/NOGAPS solution of a SW FL scenario, but it will be interesting to see if the 18z and 00z runs of the GFS & GFDL models keep up the insanity.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

GFDL and BAMM - get there parameters from the GFS..


NOUS42 KWNO 191513
ADMNFD
SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION

THERE WERE NO DROPSONDE OBS IN SUPPORT OF WILMA FOR THE 12Z
NAM/GFS.

CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP

 

[B Ozanne]

I think its time to just wait for the next full set of model runs. Unless you live in Mexico the next 6-12 isn't going to make a big deal. The models are jus too erratic and represent very little skill. Right now you are just throwing darts. So, endlessly debate this topic or sit tight for a few hours.

 

[Charles Kuster]

The 2pm EDT GFDL changed back to Wilma turning towards Florida and making landfall in extreme south Florida. The GFS, UKMET and WRF model show similar paths but slightly further to the north. Right now the biggest player in Wilma's track is the trough in the central U.S. (this is the same system that gave us 7.9 inches of snow). It does appear as if the trough will "pick up" Wilma and take it towards Florida. It depends on when this happens. I think Wilma will come very close to the tip of the Yucatan or landfall in the Yucatan. After that the trough should take Wilma towards the northeast. A landfall in Florida is still far out (if it even happens) but I would guess somewhere between Sarasota and extreme south Florida. If I had to pick an exact point for landfall... I would guess Ft. Myers right now, but this is likely to change some. As for intensity, the trough will create some shear and the SST's are a little lower in the southern gulf. This should weaken Wilma to a category 3 (or maybe slightly lower) before landfall in Florida.
Great, now that I tried to make a forecast, it will do the opposite of what I said! :lol:

 

[Pat Lawrence]

Originally posted by Chris Nuttall
Well, it's official. CAT 5 and 892mb pressure. This is an awesome meteorological event. Let's thank our lucky stars that this is over open water.

Now that I'm over my shock, I still think this will weaken to a cat 3 before it makes landfall in Florida. I still think shear from the trough that will kick Wilma east will help erode the storm some before landfall.

Here's hoping I'm right.

Hi Chris,

That is one impressive pressure reading! One that I never imagined seeing in my lifetime.

Regarding the GFDL model, this one did handle the southward movement of Wilma early on, do you have any impressions regarding whether the cyclone may decide to "loiter" in the area of the Yucatan channel?

I hope it decides to get stuck

Thanks for your opinion!

Pat

 

[Sam Sagnella]

I agree almost completely with CharlesK just said with the exception of the FL landfall location. I think that this will take a bit longer to turn to the NE/ENE than is currently indicated by the models - landfall should be north of Ft. Meyers as it stands now.

There is the disturbing possibility that this will landfall along the Yucatan as a Category 5, as I think that once it completes the ERC in about 18hrs, it will undergo a period of reintensification, likely becoming a Category 5 once again.

Threat to New England exists down the road, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it.

 

[B Ozanne]

18z models (GFS and GFDL) have come back in line with the previos 00z run. Don't rule out a run up the east coast yet. I'm not prepared to make any Accuweather "guarantees" quite yet.

The forward speed of this system could add a real punch if this thing hits New England. This is always a major factor when storms make it that far north and get caught up in the jet stream.

 

[Pat Lawrence]

Hadn't looked at the new model runs before my earlier post...I'm still wondering why the GFS based models didn't want to allow the trough to pick up the cyclone?? There had to have been some reason.

In any event, it is allowing it now so it must have been some weird little glitch in the math! Time will tell, I suppose.

Pat

 

[Sam Sagnella]

The 00z NOGAPS has a Naples/TBW and an outer banks and an NYC landfall. This model has been the most consistent of the lot for the past couple runs and the NYC scenario is one that would create a VERY interesting experience for me in SW Conn.

 

[B Ozanne]

This thread has been awfully quiet. We might be looking at a landfalling category 5 hurricane tomorrow. We all know the US stats on cat 5 strikes, does anybody know about Mexico?

Also, if anybody finds a link to the Cancun radar please share. I know they have radar down there.

 

[Marko Korosec]

Originally posted by B Ozanne
Also, if anybody finds a link to the Cancun radar please share. I know they have radar down there.

Here ya go, Bill: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg