Skip Talbot
EF5
I didn't believe the GFS four or five days ago when it had a bombing 968 mb low tracking past the great lakes. Its held in there from run to run with NAM now picking up on it as well with a 972 mb low over southern MN/northern IA at 21z 10/26. Along with the low, a 100+ knot mid level jet is forecast to eject over the OH river valley. The deepening low is forecast to advect dewpoints into the mid 60's well into Michigan. Instability is forecast to remain minimial, probably because of the massive amount cloud cover the trough is going to kick up. However, with such extreme forcing and dynamic lift, little to no instabily may be needed. If we do get some pockets of sunshine in there, we may be looking at a severe weather outbreak. Along with this system a very fast moving cold front is forecasted to sweep through the area, with marginal veering with height along the front. We'll probably have a big undercut squall line moving through that may pose a threat for damaging winds. Hodographs are gigantic curves just ahead of this front though. If we can get discrete initiation ahead of the line and some low level instability in there, I think we may see a tornado outbreak across portions of MI/IN/OH and into the southern states depending on when this system moves through. The GFS is a little more progressive as always, but overall I'm impressed with the run to run consistency and agreement between the models on such a dynamic system with the crazy numbers its spitting out. Its not going to be a pretty chase with your typical grey, grungy high shear/low cape high risk type events, but it might be fun to try and get out of ahead of the line and catch something as it races past.