10/18/10 FCST: OK/TX

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Next Monday appears to be a classic Springlike setup with 60 dews surging NWRD across the Red River, a digging SWRN s/w, and a deepening lee cyclone across the High Plains of CO. Beyond that I really cant say much but the classic setup appears to be in place. With it being Fall and not Spring, there is always that timing issue that could come into play, but this certainly bears watching. Moisture will certainly not be an issue as we already have 50 dews in place with 60s just off the coast and there will be no strong fronts crashing through btwn now and then.

Ive written up a more detailed discussion together with annotated maps and images in my blog (see signature).

 

[Bob Hartig]

Chris, your blog post supplies a deeper analysis of the unfolding scenario than I ever could. What bothers me about the setup, though, is something that Ben has already pointed out. Going by this morning's 6Z NAM and GFS, as well as the maps you supplied in your forecast, mid-level support is far to the north and looks to be utterly anemic over the moisture lobe. 0-6k shear ain't happenin. I can see some nice, entertaining storms developing, but I don't see anything in place to help them organize.

 

[Brandon Jenkins]

I have to agree, Monday seems to have given way to a more active day on Tuesday. Cape on Tuesday nearing 2k along the red river but shear is still almost nonexistent. Will wait til the NAM catches up to evaluate further, but no plans on venturing out on Monday.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Chris, your blog post supplies a deeper analysis of the unfolding scenario than I ever could. What bothers me about the setup, though, is something that Ben has already pointed out. Going by this morning's 6Z NAM and GFS, as well as the maps you supplied in your forecast, mid-level support is far to the north and looks to be utterly anemic over the moisture lobe. 0-6k shear ain't happenin. I can see some nice, entertaining storms developing, but I don't see anything in place to help them organize.

Couldnt agree more. The newer runs have the SWRN s/w getting caught off and wobbling around the desert SW rather then ejecting out over the plains and bulk shear is prob 25-30kts at best. I was really hoping the s/w would maintain at least some identity with the main upper flow to allow it to continue pushing east but alas.

FWIW I posted an update on my blog