10/14/07 FCST: TX/OK/KS

[Andrew Ryan]

The 12z GFS model is forecasting dewpoints to be in the low to mid 60s in North Central Texas, central Oklahoma, and central Kansas. The CAPE is over 2000 over west central oklahoma and kansas. -6 to almost -8 LIs in the same area. Decent directional shear is also indicated.

I could be totally wrong on that forecast, so don't hold me too it! Also, correct me if I am wrong, but it looks like a dry line could push through the panhandle of texas and oklahoma.

If this holds through the weekend, I'm going out on Sunday. But with the way things have been going this fall, I'm not holding my breath!

-Andrew

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

I am not going to trust the models till maybe one day out on this one. The lastest GFS run will make you start to dream a little bit though. All levels of the winds still look great, which include SE surface winds across western OK with 60+ Td on Sunday afternoon. CAPE is finally beginning to come up on the GFS as well. If it stays consistant for another couple runs I may start to buy into.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I'm leaving for sw OK now, according to the gfs. I'm just not seeing a lot to complain about from this 0z run. Southeast sfc flow, sharp dryline, 60 knot 500mb jetmax from the sw plowing in there during the afternoon, 90-100 knots above that at 300mb...above 60-65 TDs. Just need a plow for the front of the car now, for the tripods(or any dualpods) in the road...as well as a shotgun for the lightbars. Damn, this run has me ready to chase.

(More interesting period may come after this one, as this one is sort of blocked in and weakens over the midwest, though leaving a nice warm sector in its wake for the next big kicker)

 

[Chris C Sanner]

I would bet the system might be a tad slower than anticipated as it's already slowed down some the past couple of days. I just hope it doesn't continue this trend that much more but I'm not getting my hopes up (I'm telling myself that ). If this run were to verify though, the forecast sounding at Altus Sunday evening just looks awesome for Tornadic supercells and a picture perfect storm chase. Given the fact we've seen these type of scenarios never come to pass the past 3 years here in Oklahoma I'm not giving it much hope yet, but it is there. Not much more detail you can really go into with much confidence but if things work out I am pumped for a SW Oklahoma chase no matter what time of the year it is!

 

[Brian Stertz]

Just looking over the 12z ETA and GFS, much of the upper forcing gets shunted into KS and NE and northeastward during the daytime hrs. It will remain to be seen how good the moisture and instability will be in the favorably sheared environment shown on both models. If you like the ETA solution, then the best tornadic supercells threat may be across C/S Nebraska along and south of the I-80 corridor. The GFS looks a bit more exciting for supercells across much of C.Kansas possibly extending northward into S.Nebraska and southward into extreme NW/NC Oklahoma. Lots of time to play out on the models in the meantime. I do like the the good balance and excellent diffluent sw flow shown. This may keep the updrafts from being over powered and blown over, and alllow for more sustained and organized supercell rotating updrafts. Things do look worthy of keeping a keen eye on. Problem is that you get such a short chase window to work with in mid October between initiation and dusk.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I posted a forecast here if anybody is interested http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog.html

I haven't got to do much forecasting yet, but basically I like the area from Woodward Oklahoma up to Great Bend Kansas. I think this area has the best overlap of better mid-level flow (and deep layer shear), good instability, and better low level shear. The area up near the Nebraska border/surface low, is tempting too, but I haven't looked to closely at it yet. Anyhow, I don't have much time to forecast or post now because I'm at work, but everything looks good for a decent tornado threat on Sunday, considering it's October.

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

The models have now been consistent enough that they have my attention for Sunday across the souhern plains. .. a nice moisture fetch is progged to be advected north on up into KS. in response to surface low pressure deepening to an average of 1000mb. depending on your model of choice. Throw into the brew, increasing helicity values approaching 250 m/s. The concoction could yield a few suprises for those lucky ones able to venture out on this day.

Two areas are of interest to me, one is up toward the warm front which based on the 12Z WRF and GFS has it pretty much on the Neb. border near HSI on southwest to around GLD.. surface winds are backed adequately to produce enough shear for some rotating storms by around 20Z, the cap, while present earlier in the afternoon should be overcome as vertical velocities increase in response to the vortmax as it moves slowly east.

Another area of interest is across southwest into western Okla. as a 500mb. jet max ejects east, interacting with near 2000j/kg cape. Again, CINH values may be an issue but I think that too can be overcome by late in the day. As of now, the chief negative I see is the potential cap, other than that, this does have the potential to be a day with at least a couple of tornadoes. It will be interesting to see if the models slow the progress of this system as it ejects out. Timing will be everything for this to see if these dynamics can intermingle with peak heating.

Come to think of it, another play could be immediately to the north and northeast of the surface low around the DDC area. as a marginal cold core set up takes form. So, a few interesting scenario's can be achieved here. Being its looking now I may delay my trip by a few days to the PACNW to watch the waves, I may very well jump on this. Charles Edwards will likely accompany me. Heck, I may just take a gamble on Sat. too if the models continue to remain favourable. This would be a fitting end to a great year, a Feb. tornado and one in Oct.!!

 

[Brian Stertz]

18z MesoEta continues to support the main brunt of action across S/C Nebraska and possibly N/C Kansas . It looks like something may try to go after dark along the dryline further south into KS/OK. It does look pretty interesting along the I-80 corridor in SC Nebraska if this solution holds true. Strong upper forcing and strong directional shear on the warm front/ahead of the strong sfc low. Tornadoes appear to be a good possibility.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Needless to say I'm a huge NAM fan now. It wants to save me a good 6 hours of driving over that run of the gfs I liked. It's intersting to see how cold aloft it keeps things over the boundaries, especially north of the OK/KS border. Seems like lately one is very lucky if they get 500mb temps down to -10c over the surface boundaries. It's keeping them down to -14c or so, over the dryline and surface low. Shear is favorable over a much larger region via the NAM too. The cooler it keeps those 500mb temps, and the more it keeps them from backing...the less concerned I get with dews being crappy. Still looking like one fun day, including NE now if the NAM has anything to say about it. Just need a big fast forward button now.

Edit: Wonder how much the weakening nature to the system will hamper things. 995 sfc low at 18z to a 999 at 6z....guess that ain't a lot or probably a big deal. That surface low position on the nam seems close to Oct 9th 01....though a bit west. I wonder how similar and not so similar they are. I don't recall the surface low that day being extremely deep and it seemed like it too was weakening into the evening, but I don't know much now and knew jack back in 01. I do remember the moisture return seeming to be impossible up into NE that day, and how it made a big move quickly late(similar to what it looks like on the NAM right now). I don't think the dews that day made it to anything better than the 60-65 prog'd for this either. Hmmmm, if I wasn't so lazy I'd look up Oct 9th.

 

[Brian Stertz]

I remember that 10/9/01 day MH...the surface low tracked from NW of GLD to near BBW....Jeff and I chased a supercell east and northeast of GRI that had a long tracked tornado on the slowly lifting warm front. Then the wedge that Steve P. nailed in Polk Co. that we watched from a distance to it's south. This Sunday system looks quite interesting.

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

Just checking the new 0Z as it creeps in. It has the surface low a little further north than the 12 and 18Z, and it has the 500mb. punch coming in a lttle further north too. I'm starting to get a little less enthusiastic for an Oklahoma play. Although there certainly could still be some severe weather in those parts. I'm starting to believe that the main show will be along the I-80 corridor from GRI to LNC.. by 0Z 10/15, convection may start breaking out down close or a little west of I-35 from ICT to OKC.. that according to the GFS.. we have capping issues to overcome, although not a tremendous amount, it may be enough to allow the atmosphere to "simmer" before the fun starts. Shear is still decent, right on down to OKC.

As of the latest GFS run, my target for now is Belleville, KS. by 22Z...

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Just a quick question, will the massive rain amounts that have fallen in nc KS help add more moisture to the equation on sunday and if so who will benifit more from this moisture?

DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LINCOLN...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Just gawking at the 12z ETA...it looks like C/SC Nebraska will be the place to be on Sunday...maybe down into the northern tier of counties in Kansas eventually for a possible tail end charlie supercell. My target at this point would be the Geneva-Deshler NE area where best shear/instability and LLJ line up...or maybe a bit further west depending on forecasting uncertainties of the exact firing zone Sunday afternoon. Looks good though.

 

[Jonathan Behle]

Would have to assume this rainfall out here in NC kansas will only help for Sunday... Although I am still somewhat concerned about too much cloudcover Sunday morning or the storms firing overnight Saturday or early Sunday morning reducing severe potential. I believe if we get alot of sunshine Sunday morning and into the early part of the afternoon, this could be a nice event!

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

The 12z ETA added in precip down to I-40 with the cap almost completely gone by sunday evening. Last nights run didn't show precip south of I-70. CAPE values have also come up to 2000+ from Clinton, OK to Pratt, KS. I am just glad it is showing some hope for us to the south again. I dont want to drive to NE if I dont have to. 12z GFS still looks good. It gives slightly more backed winds than the ETA, which it has been this way for quite a few runs now. Sunday still holds pretty good potential in either of those 2 models.