10/11/06 NOW: IN/MI/OH/KY/TN

Looks like storms are starting to fire across IN and MI. This is primarily a low topped event, with very low instability and high shear combination. Storms look like they are firing right along or just east of the cold front, and have 50-60knts in the 0-3km layer to work with. RUC analysis indicates best axis of instability is currently over eastern OH, advecting northwestward into southeastern lower MI. When I say best, I'm talking about 100-200J/KG (LOL).

I suspect the main threats will be damaging wind as strong winds are transported downward... Though an isolated weak spinup might be possible with the good low level shear.

SPC also has an MCD out for this area for a possible SVR watch.